It'll Be Clinton or Sebelius, Not BBK

I really never thought that I would see the day that I thought Hillary ("he brings a speech") would be the best choice. My choice is Hagel, but that ain't going to happen. Hillary is a smart compromise.  Lot's of happier PUMA's for sure. But he may think that his voter registration efforts may have freed him from Hillary bondage. Hours will tell. Again, good pick.

is likely to be a surprise. I'm pretty sure it's not Hillary. My  predictions are Warner, Clark, Schweitzer, or Sebelius   (in that order)

It would either be a brilliant move, or completely backfire on Obama.

Sebelius is a lightweight, and is essentially a Kansas clone of Nancy Pelosi.  How in the world she became Governor of Kansas is beyond me.

With that being said, voters are petty creatures.  There will be a lot of women swing voters that will vote for Obama purely because there's a female on the ticket, just as there will be a large turnout of black people merely because a black person is running for President. 

Obama/Sebelius would be the most inexperienced Presidential ticket in history, especially in issues of foreign policy (also the most left-wing), but I could still see enough women voters swoon on seeing a "sister" on the ticket that it would put Obama in the White House.

I really think McCain should put a woman on the ticket, especially since Republicans have a gender gap that we need to close.  If McCain could get a majority of white female voters, he'd win this election in a landslide.  I know we conservatives hate this kind of identity politics, but we ignore it at our own peril. 

 Methinks the Romney rumors are smokescreen from JMC's camp. Accept nothing until JMC knows what Barack has done.

Good post, Patrick, I agree with your analysis. Worth keeping in mind that Obama has spent considerable time on basketball courts and is surely familiar with the value of a good head fake. All this attention on Biden, Bayh and Kaine and then Obama goes and picks one - yawn!

As the Saddleback forum amply demonstrated, abortion is another Achilles' heel for Obama.  Who better to shore him up here than Hillary?

I'd pick Sebelius in a heartbeat.  The bad blood doesn't just make Obama unlikely to choose her, it would also make it a dumb idea if he did.  For one thing, he can't just think about the election; he also has to think about who he'd like to work with for the next 4-8 years if he wins.  For another, whatever strategic advantage is to be gained by picking a woman for picking a woman's sake (and let's face it, that's really all Hillary had going for her in the first place) is gained by picking any woman, preferably one who is far less polarizing than Hillary and possesses the executive experience both he and Hillary lack.

The only reason Obama should even CONSIDER appointing Hillary is if he thinks he can't win without her, and then only if he thinks the electorate is too dumb to see through that.