McCain Must Define the Post-Bush GOP

This I think summarizes how many establishment conservatives feel, whether they admit to it or not. 

1) Most conservatives have long favored the Bush way to the McCain way, but won't be caught dead defending anything with 28% approval. 2) McCain is transparently not Bush. 3) What the heck -- we might as well try the McCain way.

I don't mean to make this sound trivial. In fact, I'd say there is great interest, even among conservatives, in McCain providing a compelling post-Bush vision for the party. And not just stylistically, but substantively too.

Is McCain providing it? Read on.

Over the weekend, the New York Times made a conventional wisdom-setting play by declaring the McCain campaign thematically in disarray. Jonathan Martin drilled down on the core issue 10 days ago, highlighting the tension between Republicans hungering for McCain to rebrand the party post-MS-1, and McCain skating on thin ice not wanting to rile the base even further: 

But for all the talk and expectation that McCain will run from Bush like a scalded dog, the reality is different; so far, he hasn’t drawn many stark contrasts at all. Since winning the nomination, his policy proposals and high-profile speeches have included more conventional conservative dogma than nonconformist deviation.

...

In order to not inflame his party’s base — or turn his back on a right-leaning record and his oft-stated claims of being “a proud conservative” — McCain’s attempt to distance himself from an unpopular incumbent and limping party have been so far more stylistic than substantive, more at the margins than at the core.

The Times hones in on the lobbyist dismissals as a distraction from McCain's departures from / embraces of Bush (depending on the day). Without agreeing too much with the NYT, let's try an exercise. Which themes have consumed the most McCain news cycles so far in the general election?

  1. Distanced himself from Bush
  2. Embraced traditional Republican nostrums
  3. Dismissed staff & advisors / thrown people "under the bus"

If you said number three, you're right. Let's take a look:

  1. Distanced himself from Bush: Climate change, Katrina response, openness and accessibility as President
  2. Traditional Republican: Iraq, tax cuts, conservative judges
  3. Thrown People Under the Bus: Bill Cunningham, NC GOP, Lobbyists (x3), Hagee/Parsley

Loosely speaking, I count three major incidents in each of the first two buckets and six in the last. Considering that the media will blow up conflict-driven stories of the "under the bus" variety I think we can safely magnify their impact 2-fold, hence overshadowing McCain's policy announcements by about 2 to 1. This is a problem because in the exception of Hagee,  McCain didn't need to go as far as he did.

Even without these distractions, McCain's message calendar has been kind of strange. McCain faces two seemingly opposite challenges: 1) rally the conservative base against the 1.5 million donor Obama juggernaut, and 2) present himself as a clean break with Bush.

But is it really either-or, rendering McCain's efforts to satisfy both looking kind of schizophrenic? Only if you assume Conservatives (heart) Bush, which is kind of a dodgy assumption right now. Played right, a properly sequenced McCain message rollout could kill two birds with one stone:

  • More Conservative Than Bush / Rally the Base (March - May)
    • Spending, spending, spending
    • Katrina response / competence / leaner, more responsive bureaucracy
    • The Medicare Rx drugs boondoggle (+ offering a "better way")
    • Local control of education (contrast with NCLB) / school choice
    • Iraq: supporting the surge, really listening to commanders on the ground
    • Ethics
  • Different Than Bush / Win the Center (June - September)
    • Transparency/openness as President
    • Iraq: comprehensive critique of the execution of the war
    • Global climate change
    • More Katrina (fits in both buckets)
    • Reformer / Maverick
    • Immigration / winning the Latino vote
  • Closing Arguments (October - November)

McCain can run on a unifying anti-Bush narrative AND rally the base first by stressing only those conservative issues on which he disagrees with the President. The conservative judges speech is probably unnecessary since that is one area conservatives have every right to be happy about, and it's frankly expected of a Republican and won't generate media buzz. Conflict helps you stay in the headlines, and day after day of McCain pounding away at Bush/Republicans on spending, Medicare Rx, and incompetence would do the trick as well as giving voice to conservative frustration better than McCain's current scattershot approach.

However, I fear the window for this kind of thing may be closing. The time to present this was during the extended Democratic primary, which allowed McCain to message directly to conservatives while Democrats' eyes were averted. Issues like Medicare would have been unpopular with broader segments of the electorate, but worth pursuing since it builds up the maverick narrative without which McCain can't win.

Only after a phase of maverick conservative messaging (which he was very disciplined about in the primary) would McCain move to more centrist themes. That phase would have started about now, with the Obama-McCain race just beginning and moderates starting to tune into McCain.

I would still cringe at some of McCain's policy departures if they were delivered later in the campaign, but at least you'd have a clear sense that McCain was also angry about the lost conservative opportunities of the last few years. Doing them later in the campaign also minimizes conservative unrest as we are more "all in" in the fight against Obama.

However, we're still waiting for clear, consistent narrative from McCain about where conservatism and the Republican Party goes after Bush -- something that goes beyond holding more press conferences.

3
Your rating: None Average: 3 (2 votes)

Comments

I disagree with you strongly Patrick

I looked at MS-1 and to be frank the numbers show that running away from Bush doesn't work either. the key is running to something. ANd to be frank what McCain will run to in this election won't attract republicans to win

the convention is the key

I think you're right Patrick, but I believe that the convention is the key to presenting the GOP as a post-Bush party.  Make the main speakers Jeff Flake, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Joe Lieberman, Mike Pence, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Tim Pawlenty ... you'll have people seeing that the GOP is about reform, about limited government, about returning to our roots as conservatives, but also about a big tent.

The biggest question for the convention though is, what role if any should President Bush himself have?

Bush Convention Role

Any speech he gives should be self-effacing, pointing to the good that has come from McCain's constructive criticism of Iraq policy while reinforcing the need to succeed. 

The right-leaning consensus is that the decision to go to war in Iraq was good but that execution was not so good.  McCain represents that consensus and Bush should acknowledge that, and contrast McCain against the destructive criticism from H. Reid et al about how the surge has failed and Iraq is hopeless.

Arnold who???

Arnold Schwarzenegger?  You jest.  He should be kept as far from the convention floor as security permits.  A "big tent" does not include a man who has completely abandoned any semblence of Republican values, sending Caleefornia on a suicidal spending spree that would make Gray Davis blush.  And Joe Lieberman only to the extent that he limits his speech to the war on terror, Iraq, and support for Israel. 

Spending

He should beat the 'less spending' drum.  He can win conservatives and moderates with that, he has the record to back it up, and a dramatic contrast could be made between him and the Dems.

What it means to break with Bush

When a journalist/pundit in the MSM talkls about breaking with Bush, they mean one of several things.

  1. Iraq
  2. Economy/Trade/Taxes
  3. Healthcare/SCHIP
  4. Energy policy

Anything not on that list doesn't really count for media-types.  Striking the more subtle differences Patrick lists is an uphill battle.

McCain's Not Going after Conservatives

The message path is all well and good assuming McCain thought he needed a strong showing from the conservative base to win. After his good CPAC speech I haven't seen much outreach. After wrapping up the nomination McCain jumped straight after moderates and conservative Democrats leaving conservatives feeling jilted. It should tell you something when Rush Limbaugh's latest goal is to get Republicans to "cross over" and vote for McCain in November.

McCain will likely get plenty of conservative votes, but he hasn't generated the excitement needed to get volunteers and fundraisers. He will suffer compared to Obama's well-built organization.

Nor is Limbaugh Advising Us to "Cross Over" for McCain

Yesterday Rush Limbaugh agreed with an extremely agitated female caller who prefaced her desire to vote for Obama as a way of getting even with John McCain's "socialist policies" with "And I've been a die-hard Republican all of my life".  This kind of thinking on the part of so-called "values voters" never ceases to vex and confound me. 

While I think the phrase "cross over to vote for McCain" is actually a clever and humorous way to urge right-wing Conservatives to hold their noses and vote for him, I only wish this were Limbaugh's consistent position.  The reason he gave for agreeing with this caller is that he anticipates a veto-proof Democratic majority in both the Congress and the Senate which would render a McCain presidency completely impotent. 

It's a pity...

We can't get a Republican to "Define the Post Bush GOP."

Oh how about

Defining the Bush Gop vs the real gop because lord knows thats not the same

McCain GOP?

A McCain-defined GOP is not really a GOP I or many other conservatives would want to see...

Post-Bush GOP, yeah, let's do it.  But redefining the party in the mold of a guy who nearly bolted in 2001 because he got his feelings hurt is not the recipe for future Republican success.

Patrick...

Let's have a look at the McCain message you describe:

Distanced himself from Bush: Climate change, Katrina response, openness and accessibility as President

I can't see any conservatives getting excited for McCain's Kyoto Jr. plan on Gore-bull Warming. It depends how McCain is throwing Bush under the bus for Katrina, and most conservatives would support a less secretive administration than the current one.

Traditional Republican: Iraq, tax cuts, conservative judges

Considering that McCain has no credibility on taxes or judges, I don't see how this helps. McCain's biggest problem is that he's become the John Kerry of the Republican Party in 2008 by flip-flopping on everything from taxes to torture.

Thrown People Under the Bus: Bill Cunningham, NC GOP, Lobbyists (x3), Hagee/Parsley

In fairness you do point out that in most of these cases these are self-inflicted wounds by McCain. While Hagee/Parsley and (argueably, depending which side of the story do you believe) Cunningham needed to be thrown under the bus, this demonstrates the "holier than thou" attitude that McCain has and which will turn off the American people in the end. John McCain, I'm convinced, is just not that good of a campaigner.

I agree with Langley, a McCain-defined GOP is one I don't want to be a part of.

Instead, we need to define a conservative GOP, one that stands for limited government and Federalism, a strong national defense, and defending traditional values. Bush has governed as a European-style Christian social democrat while McCain is running as a liberal. We need to get away from the Bush-McCain "compassionate conservatism" and reembrace limited government conservatism.

 

Look to the convention

We need to rebrand the party at the convention. The GOP wins when it is the party of REFORM and GOOD GOVERNMENT. Conservatism should inherently embrace those type of stands. If McCain puts togehter a line up with Jindal, Palin, DeMint, Coburn, and the like it will go along way towards sending the message that the Duke Cunningham/Don Young/Corrupt wing of the GOP is on the way out.

Obama is goading McCain to break from Bush

In order to keep the Republican Base at home,  Barack needs to alienate them from their candidate. If he can trap McCain into becoming the Bush bashing Republican, then he does two things.

  1. The Campaign remains about Bush, not Obama.
  2. Pro-war, pro-Bush Republicans become alienated from McCain and stay home.

Obama is very rich and is polling high, but this is the Spring. Democrats always poll high in the Spring. Last cycle, at this time, this was John Kerry's Election To Lose. 

So what to do?

As the first commenter said: McCain needs to run to something, not away from Bush.

  1. The Congress is deeply unpopular. Left wing bloggers try to pretend that this is because of some sort of anger on the part of the Electorate at the Minority. Voters don't think that way. Run against the free-spending, fishing-expedition hearing, Do-Nothing Congress.
  2. Win the War, then Win the Peace. Show the electorate that the success in Iraq will lead to the Troops coming home and Victory over Bin Laden. Challenge Bambi to come forward with a program for Victory that outdoes Petraeus and Odierno. He won't because he is committed to his Pollyanish Withdrawal Program. Jimmy Webb will be his shield against the charge of Petainism. It will only work if we let him get away with it. 
  3. Offer a program of restraint in Government Spending and solid Economic Growth.
  4. I know Larry Kudlow and Grover Norquist are like broken records about taxes, but if they were clocks, even they would be right twice per day. Emphasize what Barack will do to the investor classes, and just how big the investor class actually has become.
  5. Crash Program for alternative energy, including Big Fusion. People will vote for someone who looks like they want to do something to screw the Saudis. Until then, drill, drill, drill and force march the auto industry into new propulsion systems.
  6. Infrastructure maintenance. People remember I-35 and look at all those Chinese Schools that fell down. They don't want the same thing to happen here. 
  7. Rearmament, rearmament, rearmament. We have F-15's that are falling out of the sky because they are flying well past their sell-by date. The Chinese Navy isn't getting any smaller. Be bold, be big. 

If JMC listens to some of the clowns around him and campaigns like George Bush the Elder, it's going to be a long season. If he tells everyone around him to go shinny up a tree and lets loose his Inner Ronald, we can win this thing. 

That is, if McCain has an Inner Ronald. We'll find out. 

Oh yeah, one last thing. Obama is, at bottom, a very mean candidate. He's not a nice guy. He'll send out surrogates like Ed Shultz to smear McCain's war service record, then walk away with his hands in his pockets as if nothing happened. Wait until Obama starts rolling out the surrogates about the Keating Five thing.

McCain needs to understand the Chicago Way. There is no fair in this campaign. There is only Victory and Defeat. 

McCain needs to hit first, hit hard, and keep on hitting. Fight fair, but be firm and stay on the offensive. 

 

 

 

I'd back a republican canidate who pushes your 7 points

McCain won't

Maybe I'm missing something

Maybe I'm missing something here; this site is "the next right"....right?  Not "the next GOP".  Now I'll be holding my nose like many others and pull the lever for McCain, but at some point, doesn't this party have to ask itself why bother?  I see no mention in section9's post about border enforcement....that was THE grassroots issue of the past year, when brain dead GOP congressional leadership kept banging the drum for 'comprehensive immigration reform' that their voters tossed right back in their face.  McCain is wrong on immigration/borders, wrong on election "reform", only recently born again on taxes (we'll see).  He continues to revel in sticking it to conservatives that put his party in power, only to be abandoned when the K Street money began to flow. 

I'll vote for McCain because he's right on judges (arguably the most important issue in the campaign, and one that is almost never mentioned), and he's right on the war on terror and victory in Iraq.  He wasn't my first, nor second, nor third, choice when this primary began, but now I'm stuck with him.  The alternatives are too hideous to imagine, as usual. 

God, I hope not.

"McCain Must Define the Post-Bush GOP"

 

McCain is one of the handful of Republicans who can make Bush look like the second coming of Ronald Reagan. I don't want this man defining the GOP. I think our goal should be to get him off the ticket.

 

 

McCain

Jon...

I could not agree more.

I am new here, I will learn this sites ways ect. but if this site is to support McCain the RINO, count me out.

Period.

I took it the Next Right was to maybe form a real conservative party...not more RINOs and holding our noses to elect them, that has been conservatives problem for years now... enough of that already for me.

"Distanced himself from Bush"

On just about every issue where McCain has distanced himself from Bush, it has been to move to the left. Take global warming. His support for that nonsense is going to involve the biggest intrusion of the state into the free market since the 1930's.

 

The places where he stands with Bush, Iraq and amnesty, are not winners either. He is a dreadfull candidate for a supposedly limited-government party to nominate.

 

So let's not do that.

 

 

 

McCain Doesn't Understand His Base

"This is a problem because in the exception of Hagee,  McCain didn't need to go as far as he did."

McCain is barely tolerated by the Evangelical voters.  Throwing Hagee under the bus seals the deal.  You may not agree with Hagee, but what he said is an opinion held by some Jews. (See Dennis Prager's article this week "God, the Holocaust, and a Pastor")

Remember value voters for GWB?  They won't be voting for McCain.  McCain now has to leave the GOP base and try to lure in centerist voters from the Democrats.  They aren't interested in influencing the country in a conservative way and the country will make another huge lurch left. 

Grand Old Party

The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Democratic Party. It is often called the Grand Old Party or the GOP. Founded in Ripon, Wisconsin, in 1854 by anti-slavery expansion activists and modernizers, the Republican Party quickly surpassed the Whig Party as the principal opposition to the Democratic Party. Credit card debt is a monster.  Most American households carry over $10,000 in credit card debt.  It makes you wonder if using the little plastic things is worth it.  Well, most people would be well advised to get some credit card tips.  First off, use them very sparingly, a small purchase or two every few months, and pay it off promptly.  Don’t rely on them for financial support, and if you have unexpected expenses every now and again, try small personal loans instead, and again, sparingly.  It is better to budget well, and live within your means so that you don’t end up strapped with credit card debt.

McCain has failed to distance himself from Bush

McCain has failed to distance himself from Bush, people thinks he is more of the same. McCain was the only one in the Republican party that has some moderate appeal (I personally liked Ron Paul but he had no chance). Picking Sarah Palin was a mistake as media circus kept on ridicule her, and with her being one heartbeat away from presidency if McCain is elected, voters had to choose Obama instead. free ads |jobs part time |article directory

The Republican Party is one

The Republican Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United Statesdiscount tiffany jewelry