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NJ-SEN: Lautenberg 45, Zimmer 44

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 08:18
in

I don't think this was as on anyone's radar of competitive races, but a Rasmussen poll finds 84-year-old incumbent Frank Lautenberg out front of Republican former Rep. Dick Zimmer by just a point, 45-44.

New Jersey always teases us so, giving us some tempting poll numbers right before (usually) closing for the Dems. Still, this was an HRC state in the primary, and Lautenberg had to fend off a spirited challenge in the primary from Rep. Rob Andrews.

Zimmer may not be anyone's model Republican, but I'll be happy to see Lautenberg go. This is the same guy who was placed illegally on the ballot to replace the crooked Bob Torricelli after the deadline in 2002. And who played the age card against 72-year-old Republican incumbent Milicent Fenwick in his first race in 1982.

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The Dead Will Walk, Mr. Hoffa Will Vote...

Submitted by section9 on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 08:43.

 ...before Zimmer wins this election. Patrick, I understand your zeal, but also appreciate your caution in this regard. This is New Jersey. I think if the Dems were in serious danger of losing the seat, ol' Frank would find himself taking early retirement in, say, October, allowing the Party to front some Fresh Face that they could rally around.

Then you make sure the Dead vote early and often,  and you send the Fresh Face to Washington. Either way, Lautenberg's time is about up.

I'm sure the New Jersey Democratic Party could make arrangements for Mr. Hoffa at the Meadowlands....

Yep....

Submitted by Ironman on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 20:06.

Lautenberg will need to go non compos mentos within the last 10 days of the campaign so even the ruthless Dems and their spineless judiciary allies can;t move fast enough to put a substitute on the ballot.

Were that to happen, Zimmer could stand a decent shot. Remember, Forrester took a lead on Torricelli--but did so too soon--so they could play the old switcheroo.

The only other possible game changer would be a complete Corzine implosion making his allied look bad too. Unlikely--but given the track record of Governors in this region lately--not completely impossible either.

 

NJ is where hope goes to die

Submitted by josephcollins on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 11:48.

Even if it was theoretically possible, which I doubt, it would take the kinds of resources that the GOP just doesn't have right now.  And, the two largest media markets are expensive and out of state... NYC and Phila.

The other thing to remember

Submitted by Tom Readmond on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 15:47.

The other thing to remember is, with the possible exception of Chicago, New Jersey is home to the most entrenched Democratic corruption in the country, which makes it hard for a Republican to win even when he should.

In the immortal words of former NJ Gov. Brendan Byrne, "When I die, bury me in Jersey City so I can stay active in Democratic Party politics."

"I live in New Jersey.. I don't expect much..."

Submitted by tonia.kulberda on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 15:57.

Sing it with me, fellow Jerseyans.

Part of me agrees with the posts above.  Dems will find a way.  But I know better and I will vote for Zimmer.  I can't be the only one. 

I think it's that we've lived so long under demcorruptionoppression that we just don't think we can make a difference.  So we don't bother to try or we give up at a certain point.  Yet I remember the outrage against Florio and he didn't last.  It can happen.

So can this year be different?  What can we do for Zimmer?  Just seems to me that if there were enough people who expect more and are willing to do more and more outside the box - that poll is tight and we've got a race we can win. 

Zimmer's road

Submitted by Ironman on Tue, 06/10/2008 - 20:33.

Here's the path based on the 06 Kean-Menendez race;

Kean lost the metro Philly counties by 50K.  Can disgruntled Andrews supporters give some "love" for us ?

Kean didn't run that well in the counties which were all or partially in Zimmer's old 12th District . He lost Mercer by 18K, Middlesex by 37K, and narrowly won Somerset.  A 15,000 win in Monmouth and a 9,000 vote win in Hunterdon wasn;t enough.  Zimmer's been out of office for 12 years, but he has to cut these numbers in mid-Jersey

Bergen is the big force. Once a GOP leaning county it supported Menendez by 18,000. If this county doesn't flip, we lose. 

What is a bit eerie is that in recent NJ elections we keep losing by 10 points---and the spread by county hardly differs from election to election. Compare the 02 senate race and the 06 senate race. It's like Diebold ran the same race over again with different names on the ballot 

   http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/