Obama's National Lead Cut in Half

Oy.

So, first we learn that the Obama money juggernaut isn't all it's cracked up to be. (Sidenote to Allah: $100 million in September/October isn't impressive if the HoDean DNC is broke and third parties like Progressive Media USA are going bellyup.)

And now we just might be getting a race again. The last three polls are Obama +3, Tied, +3. The Pollster.com average is down to +2.7 for Obama. Obama had peaked at about 6 point lead nationally:

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png

Bill Clinton was consistently ahead by 10-20 points after his convention (which was about now) in his race against George H.W. Bush. He was up by the same amount against Bob Dole throughout the '96 elections. He won both elections by much more modest 5 and 8 points, nearly 10 points less than his polling lead. In 2004, Bush closed about 3-4 points ahead of his summer polling average. I think there's a credible argument to be made that media coverage shaped these poll numbers before voters made their final decisions.

Sean Oxendine has described how elections have closed towards the candidate who is the "established product." So if one were to take an informed view of history, one would have to conclude that Obama has little margin for error, especially if his money advantage isn't going to be that huge.

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Republican Surge

I have a theory why Democrats tend to have these lopsided poll numbers in their favor early on in the election, quite simply it's the cheerleading mainstream media.  Republicans are unable to get out their message because the MSM is the gatekeeper for information early on in an election cycle.

Once an election starts heating up, and the Republican candidate gets their message out (usually as a result of buying airtime), voters tend to have buyer's remorse once the "rest of the story" come out, and Republican poll numbers improve.

The MSM can only protect Democrats so much when voters start really paying attention to the two candidates' message as the election gets closer.  Basically, the MSM is  forced to give some semblance of equal airtime, such as in debates, conventions, local rallys etc.

That's why I'm optimistic about McCain's chances.  Right now is essentially the high point for Obama, and the two candidates are tied.  Obama has a lot of weaknesses that McCain has yet to exploit.  As the election heats up, expect these poll numbers to start moving in McCain's favor.

Part of the problem we have is the Clueless RNC

 I'm not sure which campaign is more out-of-touch, the RNC or the McCain Campaign. McCain's outfit appears to be getting its sea legs at long last, but the waste of three months was unforgivable.

The RNC's grabastic cluelessness, especially its finger-pointing after the three special election losses, leaves one with feelings that gravitate between contempt and slight regard. 

Don't be fooled: Obama still has to advantage in a hideously bad year for Republicans.

The Dog Days Come Early for Barack

 Look, with David Plouffe  out there with his tin cup, it's rather obvious that the Momentum has gone down for the Obama Campaign. What Republicans should realize, however, is how hungry Democrats are to regain power. 

I expect Obama will enjoy a healthy bounce after his convention. The reason why Johnny Mac isn't announcing his VP choice anytime soon is that he needs to hold his choice to step all over Barack's post-convention momentum and draw all the Oxygen out of the post-convention media bounce. 

All that said, I still expect a very healthy Barack bounce after Denver, as much as ten points. Total Media Porn. It will be hard to sit through. McCain knows it, which is why all this GOP veep talk is totally premature. 

Ghost in the Shell, eh?

I like it. 'Bout time we had some cyberpunk conservatives out here.  And not just a pretty screen name - good analysis, too. 

"If we all reacted the same way, we'd be predictable, and there's always more than one way to view a situation. Overspecialization leads to death."  ~ Motoko Kusanagi

In any case, it should be

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