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The Democrats Need to Govern. The Republicans Need to Hold Them Accountable.
With the Specter defection, there has understandably been a lot of handwringing within the party about where we go next. The "modernizers" are latching onto this as a rejection of the so-called "party of no" and calling for a more forward lean on positive alternatives to the Democrats.
The Republican Party will only fully come back as a party of ideas and solutions. But let's not kid ourselves: this will not happen in 2010. This is not so much because it isn't possible for the GOP to be the party of ideas before then, or because victory or significant gains aren't likely, but because the public granted the Democrats a sweeping mandate in 2008 and the public's judgment on 2010 and likely 2012 will by definition be a referendum on that seminal fact.
Today the mandate was cemented. The Democrats now have full control over Washington, D.C. They can now break the filibuster. And any failure to do so is not the result of GOP "obstruction" but of self-beclowning Democratic overreach of the sort they couldn't possibly hope to get away with if any semblance of a balance of power existed.
The Democrats are now fully responsible for what happens in Washington. And though it is necessary that the GOP go above and beyond to demonstrate their eventual fitness to govern, their first responsibility right now as the loyal opposition is to hold the majority in check. And that will entail a lot of "no" votes -- and persistent explanation of why the "no" votes will lead to better outcomes for ordinary Americans.
I've written before that before the GOP can be an acceptable alternative, Democrats must first be discredited. Before they vote us in, people need to have a reason to kick them out. Democrats did not have a policy agenda in 2006, but won on the weight of GOP failures. And though the Contract with America was a model of proactively setting an agenda from the opposition, it would not have succeeded absent the context of forty years of Democratic failure.
Do not read this post as pushback against the idea that the GOP needs to be more solutions oriented, but shiny happy solutionsfests will not be enough given the position we are in now. If the GOP offers solutions, but does not offer a systematic critque of why Democratic "solutions" are wrong and will fail, the electorate will simply vote for the "solutions" they know over the ones they don't. Modeling ideal governance before doing the job of an effective opposition is putting the cart before the horse.
- Patrick Ruffini's blog
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Comments
As far as I can tell we don't
As far as I can tell we don't need more power with the Republicans nor the Democrats we need to be left alone. You seem to think all of us need to line up behind someone. I don't want to follow a group who has a plan or discredits the others plan. Just get out of our lives. We've already seen how well they spend other peoples money let us choose.
ideas wanted
I love how you don't think the toxic ideas of the last 30 years don't need to be reworked. The demograpics are changing. You need ideas that face the reality that the country has changed.
The demographics are getting worse for repubs. You NEED new ideas.
They don't need new ideas
They need to be elected and promise to eliminate their jobs. Take the power away from themselves. Patrick has a plan to regain power which is wrong, we want Washington to give up power and control. No one is brave enough to do that.
Nor will anyone
Let's face it, the last president who voluntarily ceded his own power was George Washington: every elected official since then has sought to extend their power once they take office, and that's highly unlikely to change. What we need to do is to reward officials who use their power responsibly.
LOL---Patrick
So this blog is about trashing the Dems, but if you point out how the Rep keep pissing into the wind and can't even figure out why they are all wet---you don't want to hear that---lol--when Republicans start holding themselves accountable---maybe the rest of the country will start to listening--but till then keep on pissing in the wind!!!!!! ----
Benchwarming
The real question is whether it will be for 8 years or 12.
I agree with Patrick
Mr. Ruffini seems to be one of the few conservative bloggers who truly understands the dire straits the GOP is in. There is no way in hell that the GOP is coming back any time soon because, as pointed out, the general electorate has given the Obama administration a broad mandate to undo the damage done by the last adminstration.
There is nothing wrong with the GOP voting "No" but, as stated, those no votes have to come with a reasoned explanation of why the GOP alternative is better. That implies, of course, that the GOP has an alternative.
However, voting "No" on everything simply to please the base is not going to help the perception of the GOP with the remaining 75-80% of the country. They have to be conscientious objections, not simply obstructions. In addition, they have to hope that the Obama programs ultimately fail so that the GOP alternatives will ultimately be given a chance.
And there's the rub. If the economy does recover under Obama's plans, the GOP is going to be in a hole for a long, long time and there's nothing that they can do about it.
I'm not going to lie. Even though I was a Republican for so many years, there's a lot of things in the Democratic party that I now like. Some of them are positions they've co-opted from the GOP and others, like SSM, are positions that appeal to my libertarian streak that is so unwelcome within the GOP base now.
That said, there is still plenty that I do not like. I really want the GOP to return to political viability. We need that political check so that I have another responsible party to vote for if the Dems get drunk with power in the next few years.
What's going on is a Rebellion out in the Grass Roots
The Democrats don't see this because they're too busy trashing the Washington Party or straw men of their choosing. However, one of the reasons Bush had such a poor approval rating at the end was his abandonment by movement conservatives. They began a revolt during Bush II which has yet to run its course.
What's going on is a long term purge of a deeply feckless and corrupt Washington GOP by the rank and file. Tomorrows leaders will come from the States, not from people like Gingrich or Boehner. Statehouses and Governor's mansions will breed tomorrow's Republican leaders.
And this may take three or four cycles to get going, but it is a purge that is a necessity. Specter gettimg out was just a symptom of this. If the Republicans want to win again, they have to argue compelling issues that matter to working people and the Middle Class.
The DC Party and the Eastern Establishment GOP have a distaste for this, but the rank and file are headed towards populism. The salutary thing? A completely powerless Washington G.O.P. will not be where the action is: and that will, in the long run, be bad for Democrats.
Remember, to survive, Democrats need Enemies. Now that they control everything, it's going to get harder and harder to convince people that poor old Barack is being frustrated by the Party of No. Eventually, that old dog doesn't hunt.
Actually, it was because he totally sucked
Actually, it was simply because he totally sucked.
About 20% of the electorate always defended him, although he was indefensible; and now about 20% of the electorate self-identify as Republicans. Coincidence?
This grass-roots rebirth of yours, that "may take three or four cycles to get going" doesn't stand a chance, because your party repells the young. Three or four cycles= six to eight years at a minimum, and by that time you'll just be further behind.
Demographics...its a bitch.
Much, much more likely that a new party forms out of the MASSES of voters that now self-identify as Independents.
One small problem
Spain's unemployment is 17.4%...that is a nice Socialist country for you. The problem is that Leftism doesn't work. But this country is in deep ignorance of that fact, and is willing to trade knowledge for hope.
Maybe the R's will come back, but if 2010 is going to increase the D Senators, then what chance does the US have?
In 20XX the R's might be able to shave back government spending from 48% to 45%, they might be able to privatize part of the auto industry, they might even be able to privatize part of the National Health Care System for those who can afford it.
So, great....maybe there is a future for the R's....but you know, I think it'll be a little late.
PS...I think it is really rich that the Dems/Media are all a twitter about a 79 year old senator flipping....now there's a future for you. But no doubt Snarlin Arlen will exact his revenge
another small problem
Spain's 17.4% unemployment rate has nothing to do with Leftism. It was caused by a collapse of the financial and real estate markets, just like what happened here. Well, except for the fact that the financial collapse was technically caused in non-socialist America and rippled over there.
Speaking of liberal/socialist democracies...
India, a democracy that is far left compared to European standards, is doing quiet good in the world economic crisis. Wonder why though? Perhaps Europeans needed to be more 'liberal' in order to have secured themselves from this 'conservative' crisis.
Good Post,
Ray. Clear analysis of that sort is not welcome here. It's a whole lot easier to blame things on Clinton, the Left, the Messiah, and the lefty Media.
Get with the program, would you?
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Spain isn't that socialist
It's one of the more conservative (especially socially conservative) European countries. Poland, another one of the more conservative European countries also has unemployment over 10%. Two of the most socialist countries, Denmark and Norway, have unemployment rates under 3%.
If you want to look at how a free market conservative country in Europe is doing, look at Iceland or Ireland. The first has collapsed and the second is in economic freefall.
I still think that the American system is superior overall, I just think that the correlation between how conservative a country is and how prosperous it is isn't very clear. I could give many examples to support that point and to refute it.
Winning strategy
Ruffini's game winning strategy -- do nothing and hope that the other guys mess up. It might work. And it sure beats working out.
great post, Patrick
As a die hard leftist socialist obamaphile, I just wanna say this is a great post, as are many on the next right. Seems to reflect reality and although I'd disagree with some of it, this is the type of thought we need to be having more of.
The style of "debate" one sees on places like redstate is not debate at all. It's simply group therapy for petulant children.
so hooray, this is my fav conservative site!
The GOP is mystified by lightswitches
Democrats must first be discredited.
You can see one such attempt at discrediting a Dem Rep on this NRCC video. That, and all the others in their series, are very, very sad.
Assuming they actually want to discredit the Dems and their real goal isn't just to play games and be a corrupt paper tiger opposition, they can ask a Dem who supports the bill why they want to take college educations away from U.S. citizens in order to give them to foreign citizens who were here illegally.
Note that the same intern on the video above will not work for that. They need to find a trial lawyer or similar person who's familiar with really pressing people on issues, and they need to make sure that the questioner is familiar with the topic and knows how to answer the stock responses. The GOP is simply not capable of pulling that off: they don't have the brainpower or the integrity.
Reasonable Post, Pat
This is one of your better posts, Patrick. I would have to agree that to wait for the Democrats to screw up, however, is still a little too much No-ism for the Republicans' own good.
You have to admit that the party has regionalized itself and trapped its own representatives in primaries controlled by an every angrier base that does not understand what is happening to its once powerful message.
Again, I think this goes back to a disconnect between talking points in Republican ideology and empirically verifiable facts (or strong probabilities). I'll just pick one example: deregulation. Republicans would have been in a much stronger position in their evolution if instead of beating the all-regulation-is-bad, government-is-evil drum, they had actually chosen a philosophy of what constitutes effective regulation--regulation that, for example, promotes the cause of free-market capitalism. After all, free-market capitalism, as proposed by Adam Smith and refined by his successors, does not support the idea of a complete absence of regulation. Transparency, so market participants can work with full information and thus promote efficiency, and antitrust laws to prevent the ascension of monopolies are necessary conditions for free markets. To oppose governmental action that supports transparency and curtails monopolization and its effects is not the sign of a free market capitalist but of a corporatist.
Until Republicans realize that they need to promote an ideology based on how the world works and not how they imagine it-might-work-if-only-but-when-it-doesn't, its base will continue to shrink. Talking points in an Internet age where refutation is a mouse-click and Google-search away is just not a viable option anymore, especially by the newest generation of digital-savvy, information-oriented voters. Rovian tricks just don't work the way they used to and mis- or bad information-based ideology is going to have to give way to one predicated on better data. In brief, Laffer Curves and ACORN spies in every voting precinct just won't fly anymore. Arguments will need to be more fact-based. The problem with the Republican base is it has shrunk to the most fact-challenged.
Agree 100%!!!
I especially enjoyed your analysis of the GOP position on deregulation. It's so sad that they've reduced themselves to a mindless, everything-goes approach to deregulation. What's left is the public perception that they stood idly by while the greedy and unscrupulous first looted their companies to insolvency, then the Treasury.
democrats.. very
democrats.. very good:)
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