The Kos-R2K Affair

Daily Kos has sued Research 2000, its former pollster, for fraud. On the surface, the allegations seem a lot like the case Nate Silver made against Strategic Vision. In essence, when you're making up the numbers, odd biases and consistencies tend to creep in. You tend to favor certain numbers over others. The crosstabs, even on ridiculously small sub-samples, look too "clean." The report detailing the allegations is here

The one R2K poll on a race that I was working that now seems to make perfect "sense" in light of this new information is the poll of the California Senate race two and a half weeks before the primary that showed Tom Campbell building a 15 point lead in the GOP primary while polling on adjacent field dates showed Carly Fiorina building a 20 point lead. I recall thinking that if there had genuinely been 35 points of movement in 48 hours (absent some major cataclysmic event, which there hadn't been), that'd be virtually unprecedented in the history of polling. If one were to make up a poll lead, a 15 point Campbell lead made sense if one looked at the past movement in the polls, but not in terms of what was actually happening on the ground at that point. It all makes a lot more sense now. 

A lot of folks are trying to point to the root causes of this seeming debacle (including slamming robo-polls, which I think is off-base given the accuracy of outfits like SurveyUSA and PPP) but it will be interesting to see what the coming lawsuit(s) reveal about the relationship between Daily Kos and R2K. R2K was around prior to Daily Kos, and my vague recollection is that there was nothing out of line about its polling prior to its Kos contract. I could be wrong, but their polls seemed to play it up the middle. When an R2K poll came out in a previous election year, I didn't automatically assume a Democratic skew like I would a CBS/New York Times poll or a Newsweek poll. Yet the moment they signed up with Kos, all their results seemed to skew towards Obama and Congressional Democrats, starting with their 2008 Presidential tracking poll. Their 2010 polling was if anything worse, skewing several points toward Democratic Senate candidates, though their numbers in primaries seemed right, at least until the end when they disintegrated upon close contact with actual results. 

At some point when I raised this previously, it was mentioned that R2K was simply assuming a turnout model closer to Obama 2008. If so, who would be pushing them to do that? R2K? Or Kos?

Did Markos tell R2K to produce fraudulent polls showing Democrats up? Clearly not. Could R2K have simply been too eager to please their client, producing skewed results and making stuff up to boot? That seems more likely. Either way, R2K's newfound pro-Democratic skew had the effect of skewing the polling averages in a way that even Strategic Vision (which performed "better" on 538's Pollster Ratings) didn't. 

Another question to me is the volume of polling that R2K produced for Kos. I have a hard time finding a pollster who was this prolific for an individual client as R2K was for Kos. SurveyUSA has been equally if not more prolific in past cycles -- though not so much this one -- but their clients are different all over the country, usually local TV affiliates. Likewise, pollsters like PPP (D), another highly regarded automated polling operation, will release polling as a promotional vehicle for themselves -- and will potentially pay for it by picking up political clients, or selling questions on a survey otherwise deemed for public release. 

The bottom line is that polling, even automated polling, is expensive, and especially at the volumes R2K and Kos were doing. It's hard for me to believe that Kos's polling bills wouldn't have run into the deep six figures, which seems like an awfully big chunk of his $1 million (give or take) in revenue. I'm not the expert here, but it seems to me that more deep-pocketed media organizations haven't commissioned nearly this much polling (national networks release like, what, once a month?). Perhaps the unit cost was getting to be too low, and R2K's margins were getting squeezed by their arrangement with Kos, so they simply made it up. Either way, the damage to the credibility of the polling industry and the polling's effect on conventional wisdom, was fait accompli. 

UPDATE: Research 2000 claimed they did live interviews, and were not robo-polling. Live interviews are naturally more expensive. Which means they must have pitched Kos on a ridiculously low cost per poll. Was this not in itself a red flag?

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Kos

Kos - not passing the buck, not making excuses, not blaming a low-level staffer, not announcing that R2K is leaving "to spend more time with its family".

Can you name a figure on the right who would handle such a mess in a similarly admirable and direct fashion?

OK, I'm Name one

Palin.

Only so far, the accusations are not Sticking.   Especially the "Quitter" accusation.   Wishful thinking on the part of the Attack dogs.

 

 

Sarah Palin

would blame Katie Couric and then quit, rather than do the job she had been entrusted with.

Sarah quit one job to get a BIGGER Job

Sarah quit one job to get a BIGGER Job, sorta like Obama's ACORN to Senator string of jobs.

 

Their 2010 polling was if

Their 2010 polling was if anything worse, skewing several points toward Democratic Senate candidates, though their numbers in primaries seemed right, at least until the end when they disintegrated upon close contact with actual results.

online civil engineering degree | network management graduate certificate

Some Additional Thoughts

I seem to remember that when DailyKos started with R2K, Kos said they were simply adding questions at the tail end of existing surveys.

Then DailyKos started doing all these campaign polls, and even state-level blogs were contracting with R2K to do polls:

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/diary/18361/exclusive-bmgresearch-2000-poll-coakley-leads-4941

Polling is expensive, especially exclusive polls with live callers. Something just doesn't add up.

Palin?

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha tee hee hee hee ha ha ha ha tee hee hee hee.

Run Baby Run.  Please. I'ld probably even donate to her campaign, if anything just because it'ld be so much fun. I couldn't imagine a better conservative candidate for 2012.

Excuse me, can you hold my baby on stage while I give a speech about how the liberal media shouldn't mention my baby?  Make sure that you keep it in the camera frame please while I talk about how being a grizzly mama  applies to my foreign policy stances.   (These are our woods, I can sh*t in them if I want to.) Wink wink.  You betcha. Oh and don't mind that stack of People magazines over there. I'm just bonin' up for my interview with that slippery Katie. I hope she doesn't ask about all those clothes I got from the last campaign and almost forgot to return. Good thing someone reminded me!  It's so hard if you don't have the receipts!  Can you believe that I'm going to have a new son and law (again)?  He looks so good in his photo shoots!  Just don't write about the kids! Shame shame.  A picture tells a thousand words or something like that anyway. My husband? Thanks for asking. We were able to write off his snow mobile again for tax purposes. Did you know that he's a professional snow mobiler?  What I forgot to mention that during the last campaign? Oh yeah, all that travel to and from the races is tax deductible since he is such a hard core athlete. Wink wink. You betcha.  I'm surprised that everyone who owns a bike, skateboard, snowmobile, ski isn't "Pro", that's a no brainer. You know it's great to be a sponsored athlete like my hubbie.  We really would like to thank his sponsor,  Mystik Lubricants. Never heard of them? Yeah they're big actually. A division of Citgo.  Yeah that's right. That's the company owned Venezuela, you know Hugo Chavez, the socialist president? Nice guy actually for a foreigner.  I like practicing my Latin with him.   Any hoo you gotta grub money when the grubin is good. Won't last forever you know!

Gotta run. My ghost writer is finishing up my book on Shakespeare. Makes me seem more intelilike.

 

 

Thanks for proving the point, Palin hater

Kos can't handle a single setback from the media without you squirrels felling sorry for him, Yet....we have your tirade against Palin covering numerous attacks...Yet, Palin polls are rising, and Obama's polls are setting new lows.
Ya just don't get it, do ya ?
Americans are on to you JournOlistas, its a co-ordinated media tear down plan against the Right.....anyone who threatens to kick your leftist lying bunns out of DC.
Palin talks Policy, and the entire state of Louisiana relates to What ? Who ?
Drilling Moratorium Obama -or- Drill baby Drill ?

Only BHOole can turn an entire State against the Democrats by picking the Minority opinion on Policy.....Arizona, Louisiana, turning into Red states, and only 55 more states to go.....Obama and you, losers. Keep up the Palin attacks, its working....keep it up...especially the Child slamming, you enjoy it evidently. Expose the Daily Kos members and what they're really about.