The Natural Majority

In thinking about what to write after a long election season hiatus, I honestly just thought of completely reposting this piece from back in May, which built upon an earlier case I laid out for a ginormous Republican seat gain by making the case that if you simply assigned House seats to their Cook PVI winner, the result would be a sizeable GOP majority. 

How big? The seat breakdown I had for a perfectly politically balanced House of Representatives was 239 Republicans to 196 Democrats. 

Right now, we sit at 239 and we'll end up in the 242-243 range. 

In an odd way, I think the Tea Party surge has ended up bringing Washington back to the true political center of the country, but not yet fully to the right. The obstacles Republicans faced in moving the needle in their House numbers -- entrenched Blue Dog incumbents like Ike Skelton, John Spratt, Chet Edwards, and Gene Taylor -- were moved away last night. These are not "surge" seats that will be surrendered at the next election, but now likely Republican for life -- and ones we didn't have during Republican control of the House from 1994 to 2006. I tweeted out a few possible remaining targets for 2012 -- Heath Shuler for one, Ben Chandler for another -- but in truth I was having trouble coming up with that many because the Blue Dog hit list was exhausted so completely. 

Meanwhile, we generated a 63 seat wave without much in the way of gains in deep blue areas. The second act to the Scott Brown miracle didn't happen as New England stayed staunchly blue with the exception of New Hampshire. That's unfortunate from a storytelling perspective, but it also means we defend our newfound majority from much more solid ground than either the Democrats from 2006 onwards or Republicans in the dozen years after the 1994 revolution. 

The atmosphere in Washington today is also much more muted than it was after '94. Check out this remarkable clip of Gingrich right after the '94 vote poking his finger in the eye of the White House, claiming a mandate and saying "We are revolutionaries." I remember all that, but it sounded so out of place in today's context given all the modest rhetoric about a "second chance." 

This election was also a direct repudiation of a leader elected under Messianic pretexts. It was only a matter of time before the arrogance of it all -- the Hope stuff, the "We are the change we've been waiting for," the pretentiousness of the sunrise "O" -- generated an equal and opposite reaction (kind of like all of you who love to hate the Yankees). With Republican enthusiasm in the toilet the last two cycles, their very legitimacy as a political opposition spit on by the media, Republican voters I talked to yesterday took enormous satisfaction in seizing upon Obama's political weakness as they cheerfully showed up to vote. 

The act of yelling "realignment" after an election is getting tired and farcical after an unprecedented third wave in a row, so I'll resist doing it here. In the House, there was a tactical realignment, as seats Democrats held for personal reasons now give way to natural conservative Republican-held strongholds we'll hold for a long time. Attitudinally, the pendulum simply swung from the far left to the center. The President will be a Democrat, the Senate will be narrowly Democratic, and the House Republican, and the overall result will be all sides canceling each other out, e.g. centrism.

While not conservative per se, it is in one important sense: very little will get done. And that's a good thing. D.C. types assume gridlock is a dirty word, but voters acted very deliberately to hit the breaks on the Democratic train that ramrodded Obamacare. A pause in the frenetic activity of the last two years in Washington, and the fact of the House as a de-facto veto on spending levels, means a profoundly conservative outcome, if not in policy, than in the nature and speed and pace of activity coming out of the nation's capital. 

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under 30 still voting Democratic.

56% to 40%.
"natural" is all in the eye...
Gridlock favors Republicans... who's happier when nothing gets done in Washington?

Critz and Altmire survived, somehow...

and that isn't deep blue, either.

 Yes, I am afraid little will

 Yes, I am afraid little will get done. Like, little has been done in 30 years to be energy independent. Like, little has been done to fix the 2 trillion dollar infrastructure. Like, 20 to 30 years of ignoring globalization and the ruining of the middle class. We see China building whole cities, building their infrastructure, and investing in science. Our country is still bogged down with failed ideology of both parties. Nothing much new was said in this election. More of the same. John Boehner said he supports small business, but I wonder how one can support a small business in a small town in which factories have closed. Small business cannot survive in that circumstance. What miracles will he pull out of his hat?

What is really funny is that we have a fed that is printing more money to keep the economy going and to "create" jobs, and the republicans say they want more tax cuts to "create" more jobs, but alas, our jobs went overseas. So in reality, there is nothing to stimulate. The two stimuli we had, printing money and tax cuts, have been overdone and they are not stimulative. So while little will get done in a pragmatic sense, China will continue to dominate the world. But hey, in the world of a ideological right wingers-we have the constitution, free market principles, and God and country. And nothing else matters. 

Problem is, even the stupidest rich person

won't invest in America anymore.

Worry BIG. Krugman and Stiglitz are on the same page -- quant easing is idiotic.
And this is Krugman's specialization.

Krugman for Fed Chairman -- best show of bipartisanship Boehner could pull off ;-)

I disagree

I like to watch This Week on ABC, and I have for a long time.  And so, I know that Geo. F. Will is no mental giant.

And anyone that George Will can make a fool of with such ease on a regular basis is unfit for any type of public office.

No Krugman.  No thank you.

George Will

It;s Krugman who leaves the opinionated little blowhard Will gasping for an answer.

Center-Right Country Coming Home

And long-term, I see the Senate being DOMINATED by Republicans.  There are simply far more Red States than there are Blue ones.  Over time, this will come to the surface. 

I'd say there's at least 25 states that ALWAYS go Republican on a national level (for President), with another 5 that USUALLY go Republican.  Another 8 or so states are purple states, with the remaining 12 or so being "deep" blue states that almost always go Democrat (mainly New England and the West Coast)

If you just look at a generic count, giving all the "Red States" to Republican, half the purple states to Democrats (and half to Republicans) and cede all the blue States, you get a rough count 68 Republican Senators to 32 Democrats.

It will never get that lopsided, and states are sometimes in flux, but I think most people on both sides of the aisle would agree Republican states outnumber blue ones by about 2-1.

long term, the republicans all die off.

the sub30's vote, and they all vote democratic.
Welcome to demographic armageddon.

You've taken child-bearing white folks like me (folks who are more likely to be in your court), and convinced them that it would be irresponsible to have children.

New Jersey used to be republican. So did new england.

Long term, southwest, including texas and colorado, goes Democratic.

Not once they get REAL jobs

Like the Churchill quote, "If you're not Liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not Conservative when you're 35, you have no brain."

I know I used to be a young, liberal Democrat.

Young people vote Democrat until they get into the REAL world (and start actually paying real taxes)  American society has made young people not really enter adulthood until their late twenties.  (How ridiculous is it that you can remain on your parent's health care plan until you're nearly 30?)

People make WAY too big a deal about the "youth" vote, they've been liberal for a longtime, and yet the Republican Party has done quite well in national Presidential elections.

I don't worry at all about demographic trends.

Real jobs? got one. probably made more than you

adjusted by where I live, of course.

I'd vote for a Churchill Conservative. I'dve voted for Ike. Fiscal irresponsibility and a country ruled like China ain't my fucking style, though.

You should read some of the posts on dkos about the Millenials. They're REALLY liberal, a whole hell of a lot more than any generation since the Greatest.

Rich people, in general, voted for Obama.

I'll be a Democrat until the Republicans can answer the question: "how do you get the rich, whom you want to give tax breaks to, to invest in America?" AFAIK, the only way to do that would be to force the rich to invest on their lonesome, without hedgefunds and fiscal managers. Because investing in America is a DUMB fucking idea, and RISKY, and rich people don't stay rich by being dumb or risktakers.

Wasn't rich people got us civil rights, that's for damn sure! [10 points if you can tell me who did ;-)]

I don’t buy the existential demographic angst.

We nutty religious types are breeding like rabbits:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-09-26-fertility-gap_x.htm

And the Millenials, while quite liberal, are nowhere near as loyal as The Greatest Gen. We may still chisel them away from the Democrats.

Conventional wisdom is that the growing minority population will go Democratic.

Meh.

While miscegenation won’t end racism, it probably will make some feel less like outsiders. Young Cubans will forget their anti-Communist pedigree just as young Mexicans will drift from the La Raza crowd. They may even become frigid. IIRC the country of Mexico is already below replacement level.

Maybe I’m wrong about this & new immigrants will follow black folks into a permanent minority class. But it’s not like black fertility rates are anything special.

The Abortionist Dems are killing their own

No new Liberals are being born, they're not even inbreeding (anymore).

The unborn are not voting them out of office, the Tea Party is.  

In an odd way, I think the

In an odd way, I think the Tea Party surge has ended up bringing Washington back to the true political center of the country, but not yet fully to the right.

Washington was well to the right of the public before this election. Now, it's even more conservative, which just removes it even further from "the true political center of the country." The ability of Republicans to win seats should never be confused with conservative ideas actually gaining--or, indeed, having--any real traction. The U.S. is a liberal nation--overwhelmingly so, on most major issues.

You must be one of those paid Soros bloggers

Next you'll be quoting an article from your kindergarten teacher, but for now I guess you're just quoting yourself. 

And if you're not a paid blogger by Soros or one of his corporations, you should apply to be one.  Some of this creative Liberal Propaganda you write might be worth some money to the Soros organizations.

Your line about the "The ability of Republicans to win seats should never be ......" is right out of Pelosi's playbook as she and the California/New York Democrat caucus maintain control of the "New Minority".  

When you're in a big deep hole, stop digging.  Resistance is futile.

Message

I think the election sent a clear and strong message that many people simply do not get. They are so into total government hand outs and control that even this slap in the face will not alter their perception of reality.

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 The message seems to be one

 The message seems to be one dimensional. We are some 20 to 30 years behind on energy independence. We need 2 trillion dollars for our infrastructure. And we are sending our jobs overseas, in which there is no jobs to replace the ones we lost. The ones that made this push for a new congress also talks in abstracts of free market principles and God and country. I just want to know what, how, and where we solve our problems. We don't need rhetoric or ideologies. The democrats spend too much and republicans are stuck with the same failed ideologies. 

Unfortunately, the existence

Unfortunately, the existence of this majority – America’s Natural Majority – does not automatically translate into a conservative governing majority that produces the solutions that are required to win the future. That’s where you come in. *** Android Tablet