TX-SEN: Cornyn Holds 17 Point Lead

I missed this on Monday, but Rhymes with Right blogged it. Remember how John Cornyn was supposed to be a target, with unknown Roger Noriega four points behind him? Well...

United States Senator John Cornyn has opened a seventeen percentage point lead in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. That’s a significant improvement for the incumbent from a month ago when his lead dwindled to four percentage points.

Cornyn is supported by 86% of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72% of Democrats, down from 81% a month ago.

I'll expand on this in a coming post, but in the next couple of weeks I think we can expect to see Obama's numbers continue to rise while GOP Senate and House numbers improve. How?

Simple. Up until last Tuesday, the Democratic Party was divided at the Presidential level but united on everything else. Their Party ID has also swelled in a way that's directly attributable to the primary process, with a noticeable bump starting in February. And they've outperformed in special elections that came on the heels of Democratic primaries in their states, while the GOP was competitive in the three major pre-primary specials this fall and winter.

What's happening now is the adrenaline rush of the primary is abating. At the same time, former Hillary supporters are moving into the Obama camp. That means a more favorable environment downticket for the Cornyns and the McConnells of the world.

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Not sure I buy it.

I think to many voters are late to the game and the reason the poll #s are correcting is more people are paying attention to the race

Agree with Karasoth...

In addition, Cornyn has paid attention to his state.

There was no rational reason in the world for him to be up on some unknown by only four points. 

That earlier poll was garbage. 

How much bias is inherent in the polling?

How much bias is inherent in the polling?

Fudge numbers one way or another with "expected" turnout, and you get a different result.

Not Sure on Obama's Numbers

He is still Obama, gaffe machine extraordinaire. Downticket Republicans can get a bump if they will come out forcefully regarding gas prices & drilling for our own energy independence.

What about Chet Edwards in TX-17??

This is a R+17 district.  Yes, you read that correctly, an R+17 district, and it is represented by a Dem.