United States Senator John Cornyn has opened a seventeen percentage point lead in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. That’s a significant improvement for the incumbent from a month ago when his lead dwindled to four percentage points.
Cornyn is supported by 86% of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72% of Democrats, down from 81% a month ago.
I'll expand on this in a coming post, but in the next couple of weeks I think we can expect to see Obama's numbers continue to rise while GOP Senate and House numbers improve. How?
Simple. Up until last Tuesday, the Democratic Party was divided at the Presidential level but united on everything else. Their Party ID has also swelled in a way that's directly attributable to the primary process, with a noticeable bump starting in February. And they've outperformed in special elections that came on the heels of Democratic primaries in their states, while the GOP was competitive in the three major pre-primary specials this fall and winter.
What's happening now is the adrenaline rush of the primary is abating. At the same time, former Hillary supporters are moving into the Obama camp. That means a more favorable environment downticket for the Cornyns and the McConnells of the world.