Virginia Turnout Tea Leaves

Via Twitter and from friends, I had collected some turnout numbers this morning from precincts in Northern Virginia that I'll share here.

Turnout in my precinct -- Fairfax County #517 (Willston) was very high -- about 440 by the time I voted at 9:30 a.m. -- or about 45% of 2004's turnout of 976 voters. A poll worker said that 250 people had voted by 8 a.m., or 26% of 2004 turnout. I expect my precinct to go 70-30 for Obama.

A source in downtown Leesburg placed his turnout at 750 of a 2004 total of 1,768 at 11 a.m. That's 43% of 2004 -- roughly the same number as in my precinct, but an hour and a half later. This precinct went narrowly for Bush in '04 and I expect it will go narrowly for Obama this time.

Via Twitter, Justin Hart (who lives in exurban Loudoun) reported that he was around #600 in a precinct that voted 4,015 people in 2004 and went for Bush 60-40. However, his tweet references 3,000 people registered, so it's not outside the realm that the precinct was split. Assuming a turnout of 2,400 people, that would be 25% voted by 9:00 a.m. about what it was at 8 a.m. in my precinct.

I'll submit this FWIW. Based on this and the exit poll debacle, it seems that Democrats vote early in the day, and Republicans later. So we'll see.

If you voted in Virginia today, leave a comment with your voting number and what time you voted. And remember to estimate the total number of people voted in all lines not just yours. You can look up the 2004 turnout figures from your precinct here.

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Early votes a much bigger deal this year

 I didn't take my voting number in my precinct, in Arlington.  However, right before voting, a colleague who's a Republican political appointee told me that deep, deep blue Arlington County had received 80,000 early ballots before the polls even opened.

Precinct 413 - Fairfield in Alexandria, Fairfax County

I got there a little after 9, and believe my number was "270" but the line was piling up quick.  Cars were parked 2-3 blocks before the school, and about a block deep along each side street.

Two years ago, parking was abundant and polls were pretty quiet. (I didn't yet live in the area for the '04 elections)  I'd say look for a BIG increase in turnout at this precinct.