I'm curious to get a sense of where the community thinks the VP race is headed.
For John McCain, is there anyone other than Tim Pawlenty right now? He has to be considered a favorite as prohibitive as John Edwards was in 2004 for the Dems. Key swing state. Young. Working class. Articulate. McCain loyalist. No scandals. And conservative objections to him are relatively low-grade, and not in the same orb as Charlie Crist or Tom Ridge. He can also package his deviations from conservatism as a having a compelling narrative about the future of the party (e.g. Sam's Club Republicanism).
For Obama, I was right up there in thinking that Wesley Clark was the natural choice: military experience + Clintonista. But now that that's been scrambled, who's left? My top names are Evan Bayh and Kathleen Sebelius, with maybe Tim Kaine or Brian Schweitzer as outliers.
I don't think Obama will pick Clinton -- that would be a sign of weakness and that he "needs" her. The polls right now don't bear that out. But to avoid grumbling from the less than helpful Clinton camp, I think he has to at least pick a Clinton supporter.
Evan Bayh is problematic because he's not that liberal, and he'd cause grumbling with the netroots. Bayh would be a choice patterned after Al Gore: next state over, reinforces rather than "balances" the ticket, long-term player in the party.
Sebelius was neutral in the primary, but would satisfy the Clintonian impetus to have a woman on the ticket. She's red state and telegenic, reinforcing the narrative that Obama expands the map.
Tim Kaine is a straight play for Virginia, though I think it's pretty unlikely: early Obama supporter and the wandering eyebrow would be Quayle Potatoe for the next four years of Stewart and Colbert.
Brian Schweitzer reinforces that play for red states and the desire for a different kind of Democrat. But Montana is pretty remote in most Americans' minds, and Sebelius reinforces that same message with "Kansas values."