Why Do TV Ads Suck So Much Compared to Web Video?

Ever since the "web video" made its debut in the 2004 cycle, it's been a tried and true tool used to move an edgier message into the earned media narrative without the costs or potential backlash associated with a broad television buy. The McCain "The One" web video is a perfect example of this, rising to over 947,000 views on YouTube, second only to the "Celeb" ad.

But with the noteworthy exception of "Celeb" and a couple of evocative McCain bio ads narrated by Powers Boothe, general election advertising has sucked this year. The quality and persuasiveness of web videos on both sides has easily outstripped anything produced by the safe, vanilla TV ad teams.

To underscore this, below is a grid of a representative TV ad and web video for McCain and Obama. You tell me which is more effective:

TV Ad Web Video

 

There are exceptions of course. A couple of months ago, McCain seemed to be falling into the bad habit of doing positive web videos around the message of the day that were just repackaged TV ads. And since Sargeant Schmidt came about, their broadcast ads have gotten a lot sharper, culminating in "Celeb."

But generally the pattern reasserts itself. Good web video is buzz-worthy and changes the media narrative. TV ads are stale, canned, and look like they came from the same cookie-cutter template. Effective TV ads that cut through the clutter, like "Celeb" or Huckabee's Chuck Norris ad (which probably helped him win Iowa), or Bill Richardson's "Interview" spots, could easily be confused for web video.

Obama in particular has played it especially safe with his TV advertising. The ad above has just over 1,000 views on YouTube, despite being a reasonably interesting contrast ad. This is a pattern I noticed back in the fall. Obama would rarely feature his TV ads on his site, and for good reason: they were all milquetoast. His YouTube channel is dominated by non-TV ad clips. It's as if they're trying to create two diametrically opposed brands: the fist-bumping, will.i.am Obama with Shephard Fairey posters of him for the Web, and the safe, conventional Kansas-born Obama for TV.

If this a concerted strategy by David Axelrod and team, is it working? It seems to me that the Web message has permeated more -- and redounded more to Obama's benefit -- in the media. Meanwhile, the TV message, which is blanketing the swing states, seems like an under-the-radar play to play up Obama's sameness and rebut the ever-present "Is he a Muslim?" garbage. If so, that's sort of a role reversal. The Web used to be the place to put under-the-radar messages. Now, reporters are so fixated on the Web, that TV ads can be the sideshow.

Or it could just be that Axelrod comes from a long line of boring Democratic ad makers and he doesn't know how to play at this level. Republican ads are more interesting because they know that the point is to inject controversy and chatter into the news cycle. Even if you didn't see the "Celeb" ad on TV, you saw it replayed countless times on cable. Everybody is now talking about Obama's celebrity status, for good or ill. The points behind the buy (which I suspect weren't very high) almost become meaningless.

After the 2004 election, Matthew Dowd (BC'04 chief strategist) said something pretty remarkable:

The ads in the campaign, our[s] and the tests of all your [Kerry] ads, there was very little effect. When you think about it, if you add up these numbers and taking your numbers, there was over 600 million dollars spent on advertising in about 17 states, and those 17 states voted the exact same way as the other 33 states, just as they did in 2000. So, I think the effective ads are the ones that fed a story. Our first ads fed a story, hurt you all because the free press adopted it. Then some ads that you all did fed a story that the press adopted. But by and large, if you look at ad after ad after ad, they didn't have a dramatic effect on the race in this campaign. (Electing the President 2004p. 75)

Here you have someone behind the advertising strategy of a major Presidential campaign telling us that the ads, by and large, didn't matter. And those that did were the ones that aligned with a pre-existing media frame. That, in effect, all those points on television were wasted, and that the only point to running TV at the Presidential level is to maintain something akin to the MAD doctrine of equal deterrence.

If the only ads that work are the ones that feed the free media narrative, they could, in theory, all be web videos -- and we can dispense with the templated ads that nobody online watches on YouTube, and no one offline remembers.

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Comments

old media vs. new for now... reaches all

matthew is correct - having worked with him for 15 years i do agree with his argument that positive ads aired specifically for television today are basically a wash in terms of actual votes by the likely voter - the likely voter being one who has voted consistently (i.e. showed up) regardless of choice, whether it be strict or swing.

television advertising does have its place.  the 50+ are actual voters, yet are still technologically challenged, and i have long argued we air television advertising till 2012.  the reason?  positive, informative advertising engages this select audience.  and these voters will not branch out to inform themselves online.

negative ads (today we call them contrast ads) do work.

in 2000 and 2004 our goal was to create an ad so provacative, judy woodruff would kick off her segment with a clip on CNN's Inside Politics.  positive ads have no chance, it's the contrast spots that gain attention.

many say "why go negative"... i say, "are they?"  if a true contrast ad provides the facts mixed with a touch of humor, it will go viral.  and it will reach the 50+ via email, engaging and enticing this audience plug in to the Internet.

we must not neglect those offline.  there will be a time, 2012 or 2016 that television advertising will fade.  and if we do this right.  if we create viral web ads that reach all ages whether it be via youtube, campaign sites or email forwards, we have successfully transitioned to the next phase of political advertising.

 

 

Thanks for your perspective on this

I'm a little tongue in cheek when I say we shouldn't air TV. Of course we should. The Web still can't reach tens of millions of people.

But what kind of ads should we be airing?

What's interesting is that all the ads that gain traction are more "web-like." I really do wonder what kind of effect the cookie cutter spots produced by Axelrod & co. be they positive or contrast, have in this environment? I suspect not much, unless my perception of these things (and YouTube view counts) are diametrically opposed to that of key segments of the electorate.

once again Patrick pitches internet gimmicks

I see that Patrick is selling the idea that internet gimmicks can make up for bad candidates, failed administrations, and lousy staff work.  Maybe if SEnator McCain was a much stronger candidate and maybe if his staff was capable of competent work and maybe if the Republicans were not burdened by the failures of the Bush Administration, one could argue that internet video actually means something. 

But as long as the Repulbicans are running candidates who are too lazy to read their briefing books and too stupid to understand what they are being told, there is no amount of interent gimmicks that will change anything.

I guess what Patrick really shows is that the left is dominated by people who what to make changes to the U.S. and the right is currently dominated by people who want to advance their careers.  Maybe when Patrick realizes that without competent leadership there is not going to be a relevant Repubican party around to hire him to do internet gimmicks.

 

Pushing and Pulling

 

I think lauracrawford made a good point about the the necessity of using TV ads to reach a key voting block, but I also see another purpose.

TV ads establish the early narrative.  Bio spots are the first things up so that your opponent can't define you before you've attempt to define yourself.  But, an ad touting a candidates credentials or personal story probably wouldn't do well on the web unless it had some really fantastic, expensive production to it.  In short, TV ads push the narrative

I see web ads as pulling the narrative - or perhaps nudging it to one side or another.  For example, "Celeb"  and "The One" helped to shift the narrative from Obama's Europe trip to his popularity and energy concerns. 

Having said that, I think the kind of web ads we should be making should continue to push on the theme of "the One" and "celeb" for now.  Maybe someone can re-make the 1984 Obama web ad with Obama in the screen?  Parody the parody, maybe?  As for TV, I think it's time to start getting issue-specific in swing states.  Push the issues on TV and pull Obama off-topic on the web.

Early in the cycle vs. 100 days out

Obama used a web bio video to define himself with influentials the day he launched his campaign. It was extremely well produced, belying the notion that web video must be completely unscripted and raw.

Most campaigns, particularly at the statewide level, won't advertise until 100 days out. Isn't that actually fairly late in the game in this new environment?

Of course if it were up to me...

You'd run the soaring 60 second bio ad (I love those things)... Then go into slashing neg that's purely a play for earned media.

Issue ads test very well, but what is the recall like?

And of course the "I love puppies" ads. Gotta have those. 

Elegant post Patrick, as

Elegant post Patrick, as usual just a bit ahead of the wave. But, as correspondent lauracrawford  (Wed, 08/06/2008 - 03:48) points out, the re-branding game never ends. To wit:

     negative ads (today we call them contrast ads) do work.

Slime and mud became negative ads, and now under magic of the market place have become contrast ads. Love it, get your contrast ad over here, do not wear white linens, and we recommend boots.

 

Do political TV ads even WORK?

 Are we already so overloaded with info that the inherently bland TV ads wont even work? Especially at the Presidential level with candidates where there is information saturation already? Consider this "TMI" about Obama ...

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/brad-wilmouth/2008/08/06/pew-poll-finds...

We have Obama fatigue and its not even the convention! Maybe Obama positive ads and McCain negative ads will just be a turnoff?

 Beyond that, there is the audience limits. Politically active people are all on the web now. I havent watched the nightly news more than a half dozen times since the 20th century. I barely see any network TV and consider it an intellectual dead zone. And I get my news via internet more than ever. If that trend holds for a swath of Americans, TV will be eclipsed over time. I do recall a political ad I saw the night of New Hampshire primary. Bizarrely, it was on Fox News and it was a Rudy Guiliani ad. He didnt even compete, came in 5th in NH and was running ads?!?  I was thinking: This guy is toast.

TV as buzz-driver: The only ads that seem to matter enough are those that are 'buzz-worthy enough' to drive a media story ... like the "Celeb" ad.

I think the problem that is beig highlighted here is that TV has been a 'mass-market channel. Mass market has to be inoffensive, hence the mushy pap from Obama about his kansas roots (so off from his real bio its seems satirical). Will McCain ever run a TV ad that points out specifically their differences on life "Obama is a pro-abortion extremist who wants liberal activists on the courts!" No. You save that for flyers to particular voters tuned in to a specific message. You dont want the 30% of hard-core pro-choice pro-activist voters to go "Aha! I'm for Obama!"

So putting it all together:

- Niche maketing trumps mass marketing (more able to have hard-hitting messages without collateral damage to other side voters)

- Web has been used as an 'a la carte' platform for all sorts of messages, buzz bubbles up in a survival-of-fittest mode

- TV ads are mass market and that requires inoffensive 70%+ messages, such messages tend to be bland. bland doesnt drive interest or news, so TV ads are less likely to be buzz-worthy

- Buzz trumps bland in our information-glut age

- Conclusion: TV ads are less valuable in the campaign arsenal overall. They do work but onlyin a limited sense. They are still helpful as a platform for showcasing or driving the high-point 70%+ messages, but that is all.

Negative ads

The problem with negative ads is Obama can can collect snippets of them together in a montage and then simply ask at the end, "Is that all they've got? This is what we need to change about Washington."

Yeah negative ads work, but people hate them and hate all poliiticians when they see them. The target and the shooter. It's worked to Republican advantage when Rove was interested in increasing base turnout and discouraging indies from voting at all. I'm afraid with Obama's ju jitsu talents it may backfire this time. The indies are engaged this year and a lotta Repubs have drifted into their ranks. McCain can't afford go 50/50 with them trying to paint Obama as an effete snob if it's gonna just make him look like a nasty old man.

 

 

Paris Hilton Smackdown

Paris Hilton Smackdown has received over 3.5M views in less than 24 hours. This must be something of a record.

Missing the point

Someone noted that in '04 hundreds of million were spent on TV ads and the needle barely moved where they were broadcast.

Well, assuming two equally well funded , equally competent  campaigns, that's sorta what should happen.

If you doubt me, consider why when one campaign has ads up and the other is dark the guess is the party not airing is sure it's lead is large and durable enough to deal with a slow leak. in that state. 

Think professional sports. The year Michael Strahan set the sack record he was on the field for probably 500 pass attempts against the Giants, yet he got only 22 sacks.  Did he "fail"  96% of the time? No. Obviously that's because the other team blocked him.  But a marginal difference--which is only achievable at this level with extreme skill and extreme intensity--could make a huge difference in a close ball game. (Florida 2000 anyone?) 

The problem we have is that with saturation of the usual time windows (local broadcast news in battleground states)  successful national and statewide campaigns are going to need to expand the field by buying ads in different time slots and different cable networks. And at last the Mark Penn theories might work. You are not going to run an ad on Conan O'Brien that is going to work on Lifetime.

I think a lot of folks have bought into the industrial age attrition style of politics (if 1000 points doesn;t work. well, make it 2000!) when TV will play a decisive role in a more agile and nimble "high touch" post-industrial political of maneuver.

I wonder how many were done

I wonder how many were done on hdtv satellite for dishnet wor DTV.