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WI-8: Gard in Great Position to Topple Kagen

Submitted by Sean Hackbarth on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 12:05
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A Public Opinion Strategies poll declares the WI-08 Congressional race between John Gard and Rep. Steve Kagen a statistical dead-heat. Kagen leads Gard 46%-42% with a 4.9% margin-of-error. Pollster Gene Ulm [PDF] pointed out a few interesting tidbits from the numbers:

  • Undecided voters are "pre-disposted to vote against Kagen."
  • Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama in the district 46%-41%.
  • Gard has great name recognition before running ads.

This is great news for Gard on top of his second quarter fundraising advantage over Kagen. Gard will be able to raise plenty of money to be competitive, he has the name recognition, and he's running in a district sympathetic to McCain and Republicans. This is a race the GOP can and should win. Even if you're no where near Wisconsin you can help out his campaign by signing up for his e-mail list and donate to Gard's campaign. Nationalizing this race will give Gard a much better chance to retake this normally-Republican Congressional seat.

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Why did Gard lose the first time?

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 17:57.

WI 8 is a lean R district, and the GOP gubernatorial candidate was the prior incumbent, so I don;t think things up ballot were that horrendous

I note there was a primary, and that Gard is from one of the smaller towns in the district. Were these factors, or was it generic anti-Bush voting? , or was it a weak campaign effort? 

We need to know he fixed his problems the first time so he does well this time

Situation

Submitted by Sean Hackbarth on Sat, 07/19/2008 - 09:12.

Wisconsin got caught up in the anti-GOP tsunami. Mark Green should have beat Doyle. The only real problem Gard had was the primary and a tad sense of entitlement that ticked off a few Republicans.