A Few Random Thoughts On The Polls

I've kept a pretty low profile the last couple of weeks, because the state polls have been pretty scarce, and it is hard to say anything about polling during the convention season.  But we can deduce a couple of interesting things:

(1) Based on the tracking polls, both McCain and Obama got negative bounces from their veep picks.  This is interesting, but perhaps not surprising.  Both Obama and McCain have strong personal brands.  It is hard for two relatively obscure politicians (at the time of their selections) to add much immediately to the ticket.  This is unlike someone like Kerry who got a large Veep bounce, by adding someone who arguably had a stronger brand at the time he was picked.

(2) Obama's convention bounce was significant, but not overwhelming.  Doing an apples-to-apples comparison of polls (eg pre-convention vs. post-convention) we get the following:

CNN: +1

Hotline/FD +6

USAT/Gallup +4

CBS News +2

Gallup +9

Rasmussen +3

Which works out to about a 4 point bounce or so.  This is roughly the bounce the RCP average shows.

(3) We won't know the full size of McCain's bounce until tomorrow, which will be the first day of polling which is completely post-RNC.  Even with just partial results, his bounce looks significant.  He is already showing 11 points in Gallup and 6 in Rasmussen.  He's leading 54-44 among likely voters in Gallup.  This is something I honestly never thought that I'd see.

(4) Don't believe people who tell you that they know what the day-to-day subsample results are.  Even without taking account things like rounding, it is simply impossible to do.  Period. (some people are finally letting on to this).

(5) The interesting results from the Palin pick will come when we start to get state polling in the next couple days.  I'm not certain that she won't help carry a state.  Remember, McCain's lead in Alaska was uncharacteristically (for a Republican) in the single digits.  Remember how Obama and Dean sent a bunch of field organizers to Alaska? And they might make it close?  Not so much anymore. 

In general, Republicans' biggest erosion has come in the Mountain West and Upper Plains/Midwest.  Remember, polling was showing Obama doing unusually well compared to 2004 in states like the Dakotas, Montana, Colorado, and even Wyoming, Utah and Idaho (though McCain still led handily there).  I think the representation of another Mountain West governor, to go with the Mountain West Senator should help.

And will Palin's unusual accent, which rings of a Dakota/Minnesota accent, help out there?

(6) The really interesting results are going to come in polls for Senate and House races.  The main thing about the Republican convention and the Palin pick (and the unfair, unfounded attacks on her) is that the Republican party, for the first time in three years, is energized.  The importance of that can't be underestimated.  For Republicans running in Republican-leaning states or districts -- and that is a large majority of vulnerable Senate and House seats this term -- regular Republican turnout dedicated to electing a Republican ticket (as opposed to just stopping a Democratic President) could make a real difference.

Anyway, you'll be hearing more from me now that we're past the Labor Day weekend.  It's on.