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A Quick Note About Zogby Showing McCain Ahead

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 13:18

I wouldn't read too much into it.  It's a three-day track of 1200 likely voters, which means we're 95% confident the "true" value for McCain that night is somewhere between 53% and 43%.  This isn't inconsistent with what we're seeing in other polling.  And even then, one out of every twenty polls is going to be an outlier.

If you're looking at good news, I'd take a gander at the trends in Pennsylvania, and the fact that both campaigns are visiting Iowa this week.

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Comments

Is it a 1200 sample each night?

Submitted by Caroline on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 21:35.

Or 400 each night making a 3-day rolling sample size of 1200?

 

Three 400 person samples nt

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 23:21.

.

So each night is 400 people, right?

Submitted by Caroline on Sun, 11/02/2008 - 08:34.

And it's with these 400 that all the noise is being made.

By the way, Sean --

Submitted by mlindroo on Sun, 11/02/2008 - 05:28.

By the way, Sean -- do you still think McCain might win this thing...?

As I recall, you claimed he had to reduce the gap to 2-3% on average in the opinion polls.

Right now he is -6.5 in the RCP aggregate poll with two days to go.

Are there any consistent signs of a "McCain wave"?