A Reality Check On New England

The supposed big story of the Congressional races is that Republicans lost their last Congressional seat in New England with the defeat of Chris Shays.  The implications of this are supposedly ominous, as Reid Wilson declares:

But Shays' defeat shows that even someone prepared for a tough race who has spent years building his reputation within the district can go down to defeat. Republicans are going to have to re-establish a foothold in the New England before they can seriously challenge for the Speaker's gavel.

The answer to this is "hogwash."  New England holds a special place in history as the traditional seat of power in the nation.  When the Northern Republican party was in its prime, New England was the place to be, politically, economically, and culturally speaking.  But it is a crumbling ediface of its former self, with the accompanying decline of economic, cultural, and especially political influence. 

In the 1950s, New England had twenty eight Congressional districts.  In the Republican party's greatest time of historical dominance in the early 20th century, it had around thirty-three seats.  Today, New England has twenty-two states seats.  It will lose another after this census, meaning that it will have only five more seats than Massachusetts alone had at mid-century, and will barely have half as many seats as, say, Texas.  Indeed, Texas alone presently supplies about as many Republicans to Congress as all of New England supplies Democrats.

Even adding New York to the definition of New England does little to alter the analysis; by adding New York to the New England states we end up with fifty-one seats.  That's less than California, and it will drop by another three after this census.  And between New York and New England, Republicans have dropped a grand total of eleven Congressional seats (six from New York, not New England).  Even taking over every Democratic seat in New England AND New York would barely get Republicans a majority in the House. 

This isn't to say that the Republican party shouldn't compete in New England -- it should, it can (as evidenced by continued successes in gubernatorial races, competitive House races in Vermont, Maine, and Massachsetts in the worst possible conditions imaginable in the last few cycles, and continuing party competitiveness overall in New Hampshire), and it will.  A House seat is a House seat.  Obviously the Senate picture is very different, since you're looking at 12% of the Senate drawn from those states. And to the extent that problems in New England are symptomatic of problems in other, growing portions of the country, like Fairfax County Virginia or Orange County North Carolina, that point (a different one than that being made above) is taken.

But the importance of New England to holding the Speakers' gavel is grossly overstated, and is an artifact of history, much like the belief that upstate New York or downstate Illinois is staunchly Republican.  The focus of the Republican party in the short-to-medium term should remain in the Rust Belt and the Mountain West; fixing the party's problems there will do a lot more for the party's future than re-establishing its bona fides in Rhode Island.

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do we have to get NOTHING out of the notheast?

Running the numbers is a good expression of the loss of the population and political center of gravity, but it still is not the whole story.

Even adding New York to the definition of New England does little to alter the analysis; by adding New York to the New England states we end up with fifty-one seats.

First, lets add New York. And ponder what an uphill climb we face in the house and senate if we can get *NOTHING* out of this part of the country. See, the real difference between the GOP and Dems right now is that the Dems have taken GOP turf in mountain states, southern states and in suburban and rural districts from ND to Florida.  ... But we have close to no presence in blue-States at all.

It's a bizarre flip-side of the situation from the 1930s to the 1980s. Because the GOP had so few southern seats, we could not get to a majority in Congress except for brief periods. So we have to compete. The point is well taken that CA has more seats ... but then we have that nut to crack too. We need a 50 state strategy and we need to compete in all 435 districts. We need to find a way to get competitive in states like Mass. and CT and NY. If we cannot, then the northeast plus Cali puts us down about 80-20 in 100 seats. Too steep a hill to climb in the rest of the country!

  The focus of the Republican party in the short-to-medium term should remain in the Rust Belt and the Mountain West; fixing the party's problems there will do a lot more for the party's future than re-establishing its bona fides in Rhode Island.

I disagree at this level: We should and could do both. Each of us can only attend to the matters at hand in our area, it makes not sense for me in Texas to try to fix the IL GOP or the RI GOP. Let IL activists build IL, let RI activists build up in RI. Let the people of EVERY STATE work to improve things in THEIR STATE.

 NY was and is not as far off from having some GOP influence - I think Rudy could win if he runs for NY Gov -  and a number of GOP House seats are in our hands and/or available for taking back. NH is a winnable swing state for Gov or Senate. Sen Gregg needs to be re-elected, and we have a crop of GOP Govs to build off of. We should also take advantage of the bad Government that the Dems are providing in NJ and NY to gain there.

Second, we have to look at this generally as a matter of getting back on offense in order to get back to parity. That means treating any of 'their areas' whether states, cities or voter groups as up for grabs. lets ponder that the the biggest change since 1988 in NC, CA, TX, FL and southwestern states is the rise of the Hispanic population, which by itself is turning red states to blue on the southern and western tier. The GOP will be in a vise, trapped in Tennessee, if we dont find a way to compete more in - urban, minority, suburban, high-income high-education groups and communities.

As we fight there, we have to fight in the churches, we have to fight back in the media, in hollywood, in the universities, in the other organs of cultural and political expression. we cannot rest or give up anywhere.

Usually these are matters that require focus and attention, but again, people are effective in their local area - so lets leverage what we can in every state.

fighting in the universities?

nothing against conservatives doing research... but research is research, and it ain't about politics nor politicking.

Boy I wish you were right about this

Ideas should definitely follow book, and not the other way around, but unfortunately that ain't how it works in the real world.

In the real world, the egos die

and the good ideas live on.

How's Friedman doing anyway?

Dead as a doornail, just like his ideas.

 

Don't wonder why Krugman got the Nobel Prize ... he got it by virtue of being right about the general economy. You can't give the Nobel Prize to someone too busy trying to flatter the President to actually recognize the blatantly obvious truths.

Arafat got f'in Nobel Prize,

Arafat got f'in Nobel Prize, that shows you how legitimate they are.

And you aren't quoting Begin

go to hell. There's more than one bloody terrorist on that list.

 

Didn't think I was keeping track, did you?

 

Nobel peace prizes are awarded for the blood that is not shed, moreso than for the overall cleanliness of someone's past. Which is all to the good, for if we could not sit down with our mortal enemies... America and England would still be at war.

Note to Management ...

go to hell.

Another insult. 2nd from him this hour. we have a rude and insulting troll on our hands.

Do we need to keep this troll around?

Insults do not a troll make

Trolls involve a lack of commentary. While RisingTide does insult, you can not deny that he does have opinions on the subject and backs them up with evidence/logic/documentation. You may not agree with his evidence/logic/documentation, but he does not perform the usual trollish behavior (bad faith arguing, changing the subject continuously, flaming, etc)

Oh good lord

Krugman got the Nobel Prize because he correctly recognized that opposition to free trade was the intellectual equivalent of disbelief in evolution.  Krugman the academic economist is quite good.  Krugman the pundit, not so much.

oh there's no question that his academic work merited it

... what I'm noting is that there was a paucity of other options that wouldn't make the entire process look silly.

I'm looking forward to Krugman going back to being a deficit hawk again. That should be fun.

You dont do your research do you?

This happens all the time:

http://www.thefire.org/index.php/case/742.html

stuff like this:

http://www.thefire.org/index.php/article/9312.html

 

The controversy at Colorado College started earlier this year, when the "Feminist and Gender Studies Interns" distributed a flyer called "The Monthly Rag," which included a reference to "male castration," an announcement about a lecture on "feminist porn," and an explanation of "packing" (pretending to have a phallus). As a parody of "The Monthly Rag," Robinson and the second student distributed a flyer in February called "The Monthly Bag" under the pseudonym "The Coalition of Some Dudes." The flyer included references to "tough guy wisdom," "chainsaw etiquette," the shooting range of a sniper rifle, and a quotation about "female violence and abuse [of men]" from the website batteredmen.com.

Almost immediately after the flyers were posted, Colorado College President Richard F. Celeste sent out a campus-wide e-mail declaring that "The Monthly Bag" included "threatening and demeaning content, which is categorically unacceptable in this community." The students, who came forward within an hour and accepted responsibility for distributing the flyers, were quickly subjected to a three-hour hearing and charged with "bias" and violating the college's values of respect and integrity.

FIRE wrote to Celeste, pointing out that any punishment would contradict Colorado College's own policies and advertised commitments to free expression, including a policy that states, "On a campus that is free and open, no idea can be banned or forbidden. No viewpoint or message may be deemed so hateful that it may not be expressed."

Three weeks later and after an abusive trial in a kangaroo court, Vice President for Student Life/Dean of Students Mike Edmonds wrote to the students, stating that they had been found guilty of "violating the student code of conduct policy on violence" for their "juxtaposition of weaponry and sexuality." Their punishments included having the "violence" finding placed in their student files and being required to hold a forum to "discuss issues and questions raised" by their parody.

After the guilty finding, FIRE launched a national media campaign, exposing the ridiculousness of Colorado College's handling of the situationand the backlash against the administration was intense. Still, this public embarrassment has not convinced the school to reverse the absurd punishment. President Celeste and Dean Edmonds have pretended not to realize that having a guilty finding for "violence" and "the juxtaposition of weaponry and sexuality" on a student's record can destroy their chances for future employment or post-graduate education. FIRE hopes that by placing Colorado College on its Red Alert list, prospective students will be warned that they are considering attending a school that has such poor respect for their basic rights and freedoms as American citizens and members of the school's community.

And there is bias against conservatives that is pervasive:

http://www.theamericanmind.com/2007/12/09/universities-anti-conservative...

In a quantitative analysis of a large-scale student survey, Matthew Woessner of Penn State-Harrisburg and April Kelly-Woessner of Elizabethtown College found strong statistical evidence that talented conservative undergraduates in the humanities, social sciences and sciences are less likely to pursue a PhD than their liberal peers, in part for personal reasons, but also in part because they are offered fewer opportunities to do research with their professors. (Interestingly, this does not hold for highly applied areas such as nursing or computer science.)

Further, academic job markets seem to discriminate against socially conservative PhDs. Stanley Rothman of Smith College and S. Robert Lichter of George Mason University find strong statistical evidence that these academics must publish more books and articles to get the same jobs as their liberal peers. Among professors who have published a book, 73 percent of Democrats are in high-prestige colleges and universities, compared with only 56 percent of Republicans.

We need to fight in the universities to give conservative thought some breathing room, as the intolerant left attempts to suffocate it with political correctness, prejudice and bias.

If you dont think there is indocrination, politics and political battles waged on campus, you are beyond deluded. The Left has been engaged in using the campus thusly for decades - viz. Bloom's "Closing of the American Mind" 1987.

 

Perspective

Look at my diary, and you'll see that about three posts earlier I wrote about the need to compete in all 435 seats.  Then re-read my blog entry; the point isn't to abandon New England.  You're right, we need to rebuild there, and we will.  It's not for nothing that we hold three of the six New England governorships, and it's not accidental that, in very bad Republican years we've had pretty close races in MA-05, ME-01, and VT-AL.  In a very good GOP year, we'd have won all three, or at least come close.

But this is about perspective.  The fact is, we lost more seats over the last three cycles in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona than we did in New England (and again, those three states have about as many Congressmen as New England, and will have more after this round of redistricting).  We haven't had more than five seats in NE since the early nineties.  To the extent that our national messanging improves our standing in New England, so much the better.  And, as you point out, in local and state races where we can tailor the national message, it is assuredly in our interest to put up qualified, competant candidates.  But that doesn't change the fact that the real problem for the GOP is the rest of what you write:  the losses "in mountain states, southern states and in suburban and rural districts from ND to Florida."  To some extent the problems for the GOP in NE are derivative of our problems elsewhere, but they are the problems by themselves.

Northeast decline, hispanic rise

it's not accidental that, in very bad Republican years we've had pretty close races in MA-05, ME-01, and VT-AL. 

VT-AL? Against Sanders?!? awesome. Johnny Carson mode .... "I did not know that." Interesting.

All I am saying is that throwing in the towel in major constituencies or areas is a prescription for permanent minority status. I see that we are in agreement on that point.

In a very good GOP year, we'd have won all three, or at least come close. But this is about perspective.  The fact is, we lost more seats over the last three cycles in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona than we did in New England (and again, those three states have about as many Congressmen as New England, and will have more after this round of redistricting).

Excellent point. We are losing most where the change is greatest and the biggest change is the increase in hispanics voters and their shift to the Dems. We are paying the price today for the last 20 years of an imbalanced immigration policy that gave amnesty to 4 million and is via chain migration bringing higher levels of immigrants from one country, Mexico, which in turn has shifted many border and SW states, and moved Cali over to blue in the 1990s. Perhaps we shouldnt have worried about the new amnesty destroying the GOP majority - the old one managed to kick it over all by itself.

So yes, the challenge of dealing with this demographic shift, e.g. winning more hispanic support, is certainly a bigger and more important challenge then whether we can hold zero or up to a dozen of the House seats in the Northeast.

It is still an odd thing, though: What makes, say, CT such a blue state? Is it really that liberal?

 

 

VT-AL

Against Welch, in 2006, where Martha Rainville ran a very good race.

Again, not wanting to throw in the towel.  But you have to pick and choose your national messaging to some extent, and there will necessarily be winners and losers in that messaging.  The idea that winning back New England is necessary to get a majority (Wilson's thesis above) is preposterous.  That said, developing a message for the other areas you describe will certainly help in New England.

The reason that we're losing in New England is that it is almost completely non-rural, non-Southern accented, and non-evangelical, and the face of the Republican party for the last couple decades has been rural, Southern, evangelicals.

the interesting thing is that NE is almost lily white

making a New England strategy possibly more profitable than angering your base through a Southwestern strategy.

just thinkin

Yankees, Rebs and a unified party

The reason that we're losing in New England is that it is almost completely non-rural, non-Southern accented, and non-evangelical, and the face of the Republican party for the last couple decades has been rural, Southern, evangelicals.

Understood, but I dont see why we cant have both NE and South in the same party. I mean we *DO* have both in the party - Rell, Romney, Peter King, Snowe, Carcieri, we had Pataki, etc.  Southern+rural+evangelical is actually not a majority of the GOP. So the suburban white new Englanders can tolerate the Jesse Jackson Jr and Mel Watts party more than the party of Cornyn, McCain, Ahnold, Thompson, Sanford, and Bush? hmmm.

Maybe I should know better growing up in NJ, living in MA and then in TX. There are regional biases, and none greater than the Yankee vs hick Rebel bias, it beats out racial bias even. And I know for example how Kennedy ran against Romney as a Jesse Helms clone. Perhaps the media bias takes its toll. They go out of their way to over-state the flaws of the Repubs, stereotype them,  and hide the many many flaws of the Democrats.

I believe this is an important nut to crack, as more liberal nearly-all-white areas are playing a role in making other states blue (Madison in WI, Travis in TX, OR, WA), and being more competitive in CT and VT is probably a similar challenge to winning back in Travis or other such towns (ithaca?).  Figure out how to win more votes in the white cities/towns, and we have the New England, pacific northwest and a number of university-oriented urban areas as related targets. We need to get more post-degree voters back to thinking about conservatism as viable POV.  Folks who are - upscale, educated, mostly white, social liberal/fiscal conservative, elite voters.

hmmm, all we just have to de-convert the white volvo-driving libs. :-) ...  I can see why Rove would give up on it. ;-)  But IMHO it is necessary if we think about the possibility of having a governing coalition.  The real challenge question is: Can we do this and reach out to social conservative minorities with different priorities? Can we 'regionalize' enough to overcome the bias? And still hold on to conservative principles in a way that wont undermine the coalition?

 

I'm not sure who you work with,

but in my profession (global high-tech industry), the majority of my constituents are upscale, educated, NON-WHITE, social liberal/fiscal conservative, elite voters.  Percentage-wise, I'm guessing about 10% are Black, 10% are Hispanic, 10% are Middle Eastern, 20% are East Asian, 20% are South/Central Asian and 30% are Caucasian with a lot of overlap of various racial blends throughout.  But again, in the highly educated elite world of technology manufacturers and service providers, the demographic emphasis on the NON-WHITE population.  It seems to me the Republican Party should focus on a similar breakdown by reaching out to cross-cultural voters who share conservative principles. 

I've been immersed in these demographics all my life, having grown up as a minority white resident of the Hawaiian Islands.  When I was in high school we moved to Newport Beach, CA from Honolulu, and I was in shock when I saw nothing but a sea of white faces.  I recall feeling pretty much the same way when I watched the RNC on C-SPAN this summer. 

Well sure

But you can't please everyone all of the time.  Politics is about choosing between different beliefs and factions.  The Romneys and Rells are exceptions to the rule in New England, because the Republicans haven't shown a cultural connection to New England or the Midwest in a long, long time. 

But being out of power is good for this.  Its one of the main reason that Dems made gains over the past few years.  From the first day of George Bush's term to the last Republicans will have lost 43 seats.  Under Clinton Democrats lost 38 seats.  Under Reagan Republicans lost 17.  Under Nixon/Ford they lost 49.  Under Kennedy/Johnson Democrats lost twenty seats.  Under Ike Republicans lost 47.  Over the course of Roosevelt's first two terms, Democrats lost 46 seats; over the course of his three terms Democrats lost 71 seats, and over the course of Roosevelt/Truman they lost 100 seats.  Parties build when they are out of power.  In this respect, McCain losing was the best thing that could have possibly happened to Republicans.

The MSM is relentless in this part of the world

Making the Republican party out as merely a home for uneducated country bumpkins. Sadly, the 43rd President was a tremendous asset to their cause.

One reason the Jodi Rell's of the world survive up here is the consequences of electing their opponents are well understood. But a shockingly high number of well educated moderates around here voted for Obama convinced he'd break all his campaign promises. They still think they are going to get a post-1994 Bubba Clinton with style points.  Amazing.

I'm all in favor of you going after the liberals

my first diary here was an attempt to suss out the unoccupied territory that the Republican party SHOULD occupy to get the tinkering, creative class.

Because they're well educated, they like issues and ideas better than partisan rhetoric.

New England has twenty-two

New England has twenty-two states?  Wow, when did that happen?

The Northeast

 I generally agree with your analysis, but I think a few counter-points are needed:

1) New England may not matter, but the Northeast still does.  Once you add NY, NJ, MD, DE, and eastern PA, you have a lot of seats still.  And a lot of uncompetitive blue house districts.  I understand the focus on New England did not begin with you, but I think it misses the larger challenge the GOP faces in the Northeast.  DE is the hub of corporations and business, and the GOP is not even competitive right now.

2) Comparing New England to TX or New England to CA is problematic.  Democrats win over a third of TX house seats and the GOP controls over a third of CA house seats (IIRC).  The worry about New England is the complete shutout.  If the GOP was uncompetitive in every CA house race, it would be very problematic.

Otherwise, I think you are correct that obsession over New England should not be the main focus.  I also think you are right that if there is a reason the GOP is fading in New England that is related to losing the Philly suburbs, NoVa, the Chicago suburbs, and places like the research triangle, that would be more important to know.

Yeah, but

(1) When you get to THOSE states, the Republicans are generally, thankfully, more competitive.  I was pleasantly surprised to see us win handily in open seats like NJ-7 and NY-26 this time around, and nearly pull off the NJ-3 upset (which actually went for Gore/Kerry).  We nearly beat Arcuri in NY-24 without even trying.  Not that we haven't gotten beaten up in the region in the last couple of elections (including self-inflicted wounds in MD-01, NY-13, and a couple of other places), but I also think we're a lot closer to being able to get some of these place back than we are in New England.

(2) My only point (and I apologize if I wasn't clear, but this goes to your last point) was this:  I think, to overgeneralize, New England represents the closest thing America has to a true left-wing.  Places like California have enclaves of such leftism like San Francisco, but by-and-large their Democratic affilnities come from their minority populations; their suburbs are Democratic-leaning but are, I think, more analogous to places like upstate New York and New Jersey. 

Losing New England is the tradeoff for winning in places like Texas.  But Texas is much, much more fertile ground for Republicans because there are more voters there.  I'd take that tradeoff quickly.  The trick is to try to place ourselves so that we don't lose Orange and Bergen counties, without losing our edge in the South.  That'd also make us more competitive in New England, even if we never get more than 65% in MA-09.

I also think that people on both sides are losing sight of the fact that, come January 20, we lose a MAJOR albatross, especially in these regions.  Stu Rothenberg wrote a column a week or so ago explaining that for Republicans, election day was the first day of the rest of our lives which, as far as i can tell, is spot-on.

BTW, drop me an e-mail sometime.

I think we generally agree

 I would like to reply to one point though.  The idea of trading New England for Texas would work if we were winning every TX district.  But when we are 0-22 in New England and win Texas 19-13, that's not a great trade.  Combined we loss 19-35.

I think it's one thing to argue that losing in New England is worth winning in Texas.  But it's a different thing to argue that being shut out in New England is worth winning in Texas.

Another issue I'd love to know more about is the idea that New England is the hub of leftism.  Much of this area is rural and small towns, especially VT, NH, and ME.  Those are areas where the GOP does well much of the time.  Is this solely a religious thing?  Is it a pro-big government thing?  Is it because the area is very homogenously white?  Generally richer than average?

I understand why black districts are heavily Dem.  I understand why San Fran is reliable leftist.  I get Boston being that way.  But why are NH, ME, CT, and western MA a full shutout?  I understand losing more than half.... but a shutout?  That's worrisome to me.

FYI, my email is adamcarl.33 #at# gmail

A note on the rural and suburban northeast

a) Much of the rural northeast is not dependent on present-time wages and earnings from the private sector. Blue collar areas like eastern CT and upstate NY are heavily dependent on public sector employment from state colleges, hospitals and prisons. Therefore, "smash the state" libertarian appeals are going to run otherwise conservative minded people to the Democrats. Many of the high income areas like the Litchfield Hills, the Berkshires and VT are full of what Michael Barone calls "trustafarians" ; they or their parents made their money in the big urban areas and they moved to a more esthetically pleasing area. Economic issues don;t move these voters--they are social issue tree hugging progressives. The swamp yankee folks in the Rockwell paintings aren't the main voting blocs in Stockbridge no more. 

b) Suburban areas in the northeast were, in spite of sharing social and environmental views with the trustafarians, supported the GOP because they were interested in real time economics. They simply thought Democratic economic policies slowed down the economy and taxed the crap out of them. We are a victim of our own success and one failure here.  We've pretty well kept the Democrats from raising federal taxes for a generation; so the fear these folks had in the 80's dissipated. And yes, the prsent day 2008 equity and realty collapse made it hard to argue the alternative would be worse economic stewards. Therefore, Greenwich voted for former community organizer Obama. 

Thanks Ironman

 I didn't follow things back in the 1980s, but I also suspect crime and welfare were issues that helped the GOP.  Since crime plummeted, it allowed some of these voters to vote on other issues, like same-sex marriage, environmentalism, and "diversity".

New England has a habit of backing the loser

Remember 1936, "So goes Vermont..." something something.  Now that we are the losers, I hope they come back.   

New England and the GOP

Sean, your point is well taken.  But, there is a relationship in a sense between the GOP problem in New England and the adverse trends in Mountain West, the upper Midwest, and the rust belt to which you refer.  And, I would include the more recent and emerging problem in the Southern suburbs (especially of the larger cities).  The New England "problem" is a euphemism for the fact that the GOP is losing support everywhere except in the Confederate South and in the less populated states of the central and southern Midwest.  This year Texas was the only large state to go Republican, and I am hear to tell you---watch those Texas suburbs.  I grew up in Fort Worth and some ominous trends are at work.  The real point is that we are locked out of the Electoral College.  The Mountain West (until recently a region of staunch Republicanism) should be a real wake up call.  Somebody should be asking WHY this is happening---not just pointing out the obvious. 

Palin is political poison

So too is the religious right and the Southern Strategy.

(though you'll find few people claiming to be racists on this site, they do exist).

Fiscal conservatism is something a lot of liberals support.

Fairness is something a lot of liberals support.

Transparency in government is something a lot of liberals support.

Applying well-tested ideas (i.e. a new sort of states rights, where states get to experiment and are helped by the gov't) is something that liberals support.

 

But you don't run on any of those.

 

You run on a platform that defies science, is illogical (reducing the capital gains tax when everyone's posting losses??), and is just plain brutish.

 

And you wonder why the more civilized cultural centers say no way? It's simple. But the party needs to throw out the monsters, just like the Democrats did way back in the forties.