Are McCain's Negative Attacks Working? -- UPDATE

by Sean Oxendine | October 8, 2008 at 9:47 AM

Y'know, one of the perverse incentives of journalism --especially e-journalism where you don't have editors -- is that you have every incentive to publish a story prematurely. That makes it difficult to allow story lines to play themselves out fully before you comment. To put it more colloquially, if ya snooze, ya lose.

So in that spirit, I'll just note that the RCP average for Obama has gone from Obama +6.2 to Obama +4.7 in the past couple of days. The Hotline/FD tracker now has narrowed from a 7-point Obama lead to a 2-point Obama lead in two days. Rasmussen has narrowed from an 8-point lead to a 6-point lead. Zogby (not an internet poll) has it at a 2-point Obama lead, down a point from yesterday. Battleground shows a drop from a 7-point Obama lead to a 4-point Obama lead. Gallup hasn't come out yet today.

Now I'm well versed in error margins, but it would be pretty unlikely for all four polls to simultaneously move in the same direction. One of the benefits of an average like RCP is that with 8 datapoints or so, the sampling errors should somewhat cancel each other out, since you should end up with an equal distribution around the true amount.

So what to make of this? Just one-in-10,000 statistical fluke? Republicans coming home? Something we didn't see in the debates? Ayers? Discuss amongst yourselves.

Oh, and if the polls shift back toward Obama tomorrow, this post will self-destruct.

UPDATE: Aaaaaaand just like that, Gallup comes in as the only one of the five (six if you count Kos/R2K) to show movement away from McCain (+9 to +11).

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Comments

Good catch

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 10:32.

The tightening polls seem to be due mostly to the introduction of the Hotline/FD and Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby trackers all of which show a closer race. So not a true apples to apples to before, but something.

Also, FWIW, the nightly samples of the crap R2K/Daily Kos poll have gone from O+13 to O+8 in recent days. Again, FWIW.

If Rasmussen and Gallup tighten, I will start believing.

Uh, yeah. It's a fight for

Submitted by AeroSpear on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 11:08.

Uh, yeah.

It's a fight for independents (i.e., people who don't really know for what they stand). Sad but true, it that a lot of these people go one way or the other based on something that can be said in 30 seconds as opposed to an actual policy difference.

As much as people deplore them, attack ads work and make a difference in tight races.

Its going to be up to Palin and the...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 11:47.

...almost worthless 527's to drag poor John McCain across the finish line ahead of Obama. John's doing the best he can but...

As for the attack ads, well what good does it do to speak the truth if so few are interested in the truth? Thats the condition of our nation, sadly. DD

The truth?

Submitted by Timothy on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 14:21.

You mean the truth about the Republicans, who have controlled congress for 10 of the past 12 years, and the Whitehouse for the past 8 years, driving this country into the ground?

Deficit spending, a pointless and unnecessary war, reckless deregulation, an expanded drug war that causes more harm than it prevents, unprecendented intrusion into our lives, asking government to oversee who and how we love, how we control the decisions of our lives (remember Terry Schiavo?).

I'm a progressive democrat because I'm for effective, less-intrusive government. I have no idea what Republicans stand for now, since none of the rhetoric seems to match the action.

Go back and look at the...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 17:57.

...situation just prior to 11/7/06, Tiny Tim. We were riding high. Gas was cheap, the stock market high. George Bush had done a great job bringing the economy back after 9/11. Then your "progressive democrats" took over both houses of congress and started their obstructionist tactics. Now look at the mess they've made! And they have the absolute gall to blame the Repub's!

Hey, why couldn't John McCain bring this out in last nights debate??? DD

You had Me

Submitted by Jim Dandy to the Rescue on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 19:31.

...up to the part about the "obstructionists", LOL.

Everyone knows that the GOP idiots in the Congress were given their marching orders by Rove, Lott, McConnell, and Boehner to obstruct everything in sight and wait for 2008. They even set a new record for obstruction and filibustering.

Well, now it's 2008. Let's see how well that brilliant strategy worked, shall we?

Last time I looked, the American people were PISSED at Republicans, and the unthinkable was happening: Possible losses in places and with people like NC-Dole, KY-McConnell, MN-Coleman, is putting a possible 10-vote swing in the Senate and a filibuster-proof Dem Congress into the realm of real possibility.

Nice going.

You've not a clue...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 23:55.

...why the republican base is upset with those that we elected. The one thing we know is that the worst Repub is light years ahead of & more enlightened than the best seditious, U.S. hating democrat. You see this is a family matter that you're not really capable of participating in. You can clamor and run your mouth if you want out there but its waste on your part. You're out there in the darkness of your own choosing. DD

Right, Democrats "hate" America

Submitted by Caroline on Fri, 10/10/2008 - 17:39.

You're sick.

The truth? Not in your post!

Submitted by CF on Fri, 10/10/2008 - 16:51.

Republicans did not control the U.S. senate for part of Bush's first term, so the Congress was not under Republican control for six of the past eight years, or ten of the past twelve for that matter. It's nice of you to mention, or rather, fail to mention, that Clinton was president for four of those 12 years.

There have been numerous excesses orchestrated by the present administration, but your vague examples mostly or more accurately fit past administrations. The present administration has let spending get out of control, but spending control under Clinton was somewhat illusory too. When "progressive" programs come in, they need to be funded somehow, remember. Clinton gave us several wars more pointless and unnecessary han those launched by the current president. AS for intrusion into private lives, aspects of this have grown, but others have been rolled back by this administration. Do recall that the Defense of Marriage Act and the Brady Law were Clinton's achievements, not Bush's. Although, since you want the government to not make your decisions for you, then surely, you want lower taxes, less government spending, and the government o get out of the health care business. Otherwise, your argument is inconsistent.

Since you want "effective, less-intrusive government", surely you oppose state-sponsored abortion, inheritance taxes, smoking bans in private businesses, state-run or state-sponsored health care programs, and gun control. One problem: opposing those things makes one not a "progressive", but a libertarian, and the latter would have no reason to vote for Barack Obama.

Tactics may backfire

Submitted by bmattyTX on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 19:46.

I can't say with any intellectual honesty if the attacks are helping or hurting on a national scale, but I know what my mostly Baptist family is saying. They are appalled by the people yelling to "kill him" and that Obama is a "traitor," etc. at his rallies. My Grandpa called all of us today to say that he "did not fight the Nazis to have us imitating them here at home." I think he is over reacting, but he was McCain all the way as far as I know up until a week or two ago. He felt like McCain is not man enough to stand up and say that political violence or expressions encouraging it are the mark of authoritarianism and fascism. Maybe McCain will speak up soon, but I know a large group of people in Texas who are about to start campaigning for Barr or someone else if McCain does not do something like this soon.

PS - I am not suggesting TX is in danger of flipping, only that the 100% negative campaign questioning another senator's patriotism and love of country is pissing people I know off who are life long Republicans. I'm even losing interest in this thing, and am embarrassed that my donations are going towards this sliming. The women in my family are asking me about how much I touted McCain as recently as a month ago, and are asking me how "a moral person could support hate."

If people like my family are getting cold feet, this must not go over well with some independents.

I read conservative blogs to try to understand this perspective

Submitted by mnmod on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 23:33.

your comment supports my assumtion that those whos views are usually opposite from mine are good people voting in what they understand to be the best interest of the country. Glad to know many conservatives disapprove of the rhetoric of hate that I find scary and offensive.

I hope no one on this board is falling for this hogwash...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Thu, 10/09/2008 - 00:02.

...nice try bmattyTX. Who are you really? You're a decent fiction writer whoever you are. DD

If the latest rumor I heard is true

Submitted by Granny T on Thu, 10/09/2008 - 00:34.

I heard that Obama is inadvertantly partially responsible for the riots in Kenya after their last election when churches were burned and many people died. [Rumors are he was advising his cousin on campaign strategy - including how to react if he lost - (he did lose)] Do Americans know that Obama's cousin promised to outlaw the Christian religion if he was elected? What would that mean to our missionaries to Kenya?

If that is true - my US Senator has some serious explaining to do!

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/5411

History lesson

Submitted by Kat on Thu, 10/09/2008 - 22:24.

1) Kenya's violence had two stages, most observers agree both political parties fuelled the flames. One stage involved President Kibaki's tribe attacking and killing people, one involved challenger Odinga. So trying to make out that the Kenya electoral violence was a clear cut black and white affair where Odinga can take all the blame is just naive.

2) Odinga is Anglican, so the muslim claim is not clear cut either and again feeds into the whole 'Kenyan politics is really messed up on both sides' argument in 1. While Odinga has claimed being Obama's relative so have a lot of other Kenyans that are part of Obama's father's tribe. If you look up primary news sources you'll find this was disputed before the current allegations started going round. Again if you do some digging of primary sources you'll find the rumour about Obama campaigning is patent nonsense/at best twisting of one visit. Which brings up number 3:

3) What is the point of this smear campaign when it makes what could be valid attacks on Obama seem ridiculous? When there are so many other issues that you could be validly debating right now. There is a real difference between what Republicans and Democrats stand for and how they see the future of this country. I find it really strange that you think this story is the best use of your time.

Truth is irrelevant, also in Kenya

Submitted by Cassandra Troy on Thu, 10/09/2008 - 11:16.

Here's a little something we collected from Kenya: "On August 29, 2007 a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was dated and signed between Raila Odinga (Obama's cousin) representing the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Sheikh Abdullah Abdi, chairman of the National Muslim Leaders Forum (NAMLEF) of Kenya. This MOU established a relationship between Odinga and the National Muslim Leaders. (...)

It pledges the support of Kenyan Muslims for Raila’s election. In return, as President of Kenya, Raila agrees to 14 actions, listed a) through n) on page two.

Within 6 months re-write the Constitution of Kenya to recognize Shariah as the only true law sanctioned by the Holy Quran for Muslim declared regions of the MOU.

Disband the imperialist Anti-Terror Unit (ATPU).

etc. etc. read on: http://politeia-clearinghouse.blogspot.com/2008/05/obamas-character-and-...