Biden Bounce? Part II

I have long been skeptical of the conventional wisdom that Biden was a safe, good pick for Obama.  And as I noted, the net result of this at the beginning was a negative bounce for Obama.

This negative bounce continued.  Indeed, yesterday -- the first poll sample to include completely post-Biden results -- was also the first Gallup poll to show Obama trailing McCain since May.  He's bounced back somewhat today (though the decline in Rasmussen continues), but the post-Biden depression might mute his Convention bounce, perhaps significantly.

This is unusual.  As Gallup has noted, running mate selections almost always come with a bounce.  They make the candidate look more Presidential, and usually offer a fresh breath of news for the other side.  Even Dole got a bounce from naming Kemp!  In 2004, Kerry didn't just get a bounce from becoming Kedwards, he got a sustained bump, and went from trailing in late June to leading for most of July and August.

We have noted before that Obama is something of the WYSIWYG candidate.  He hits a plateau in the polls, and has trouble getting past it.  The man has slain the Hillary dragon, named a Veep, travelled to Europe, and spent about $300M in the process.  And he's locked at 45-46% in the polls.

I am not going to predict a McCain victory; the atmosphere is just too toxic for Republicans to predict that.  But it is becoming increasingly fair to ask:  What else can Obama do to seal the deal?  (HINT: Giving a speech from a faux-acropolis isn't it).  He fared poorly down the stretch in the primaries.  This time, he doesn't start out with an almost-insurmountable lead . . .

But the people he has to persuade are disproportionately old, white, under-educated, and independent.  In other words, they aren't  exactly his wheelhouse.