Do We Want To Win This Election?

Your Friday question.  I ask this because I've been contemplating:  Had Bush lost in 2004, Iraq still would have been a disaster in 2006, and Hurricane Katrina still would have been a disaster on Kerry's watch and the economy still would have only stumbled along.  But instead of a Republican President shouldering the blame, it would have been a Democrat.

In other words, we would probably have picked up 10-20 House seats in 2006, would have held most of our Senate seats except maybe Pennsylvania, and probably would have picked up Democratic Senate seats in New Jersey, Minnesota, and maybe even Washington and Nebraska.  The credit crisis still would be going on today, and President Kerry would be going into this election with a horrendous approval rating.  Mary Landrieu would be toast, Democratic Senate seats in Montana, Iowa, New Jersey and Michigan would probably be a couple notches closer than they are today, and we'd probably only have a handful of competitive seats of our own to worry about.  In other words, we'd probably be heading toward a Republican President with a filibuster-proof Senate majority, instead of the opposite.

Now the counter-argument to all this -- and it is not a small one -- is that we would have lost Iraq, and Kerry would have appointed the Chief Justice and probably replaced Justice O'Connor, though control of the Senate would have limited what President Kerry could do.  These are no small considerations.  But the point is, you could make the argument that the Republicans would be better off in the long run if they had lost in 2004.

This time, the incoming President is likely to inherit an economy that stumbles along for several years. It may even be in a severe recession.  Things overseas may get better, but it is unlikely.  This will be blamed on Bush for a while (just as the 2001 recession was blamed by most Americans on Clinton in the beginning of Bush's term), but sooner or later, if it lingers, it will be blamed on the Democrats.  And there's reason to suspect it will linger: proposals like raising the capital gains tax and renegotiating NAFTA -- when exports are the only thing carrying the economy along right now -- are economic insanity.  And there will probably be no internet bubble to pull Obama's chestnuts out of the fire like Clinton's were pulled out.

In other words, 2010 would probably be a very good Republican year in the event of an Obama victory.  Remember, in 1993-1994, Clinton did a few small things -- raised taxes on the rich marginally, tried to let gays into the military, and signed a gun ban.  He lost 52 seats.  Imagine what happens if Democrats go down a similar path, and go into an election with 1/4 of their caucus in districts Bush carried twice, with a softer economy than Clinton had in 1994.  And quite frankly, the dirty little secret is that Obama doesn't have a fraction of Clinton's political sense and skill, and Joe Biden is a babbling buffoon, something that he (and the press) just won't be able to hide anymore once he is President.

2010, of course, is a critical election.  Democrats will be defending open Governors seats in Arizona, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.  They will have incumbents in red or purple states up for re-election in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin, and will probably have unpopular incumbents or open seats in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Illinois.  Wins in many of those seats, accompanied by even marginal statehouse gains, will mean that Republicans will control redistricting in some of the biggest states in the country (though we will probably lose California, where it would be hard to do too much more damage to Republicans), which would set Republicans up for controlling Congress for the better part of the next decade.

The best thing that happened to the Republican party was Jimmy Carter winning in 1976 -- had Ford won, he would have had to have dealt with many of the same problems, and probably would not have fared much better.  It could be that losing in 2008 is a similarly good option.  There's some times the Presidency isn't worth having.

UPDATE:  Just to be clear on one thing; I think the Supreme Court is probably the best argument against this argument.  To make matters worse, this is basically unknowable.  People have been arguing that each election is the most important in a lifetime since at least 1996.  Democrats have warned that a Republican President would replace Justice Stevens since at least then.  Personally, I believe the man to be a vampire, who will live forever, but I digress.  The bottom line is that it is true -- President Obama probably has a good shot at replacing Stevens and Ginsburg, and possibly Souter, in his first term.  President McCain has a reasonable shot, though less than Obama.  If Obama is re-elected -- and I think whoever wins has a very small chance of being re-elected -- he has a better chance at Breyer, Scalia, and Kennedy which is much worse.  The bottom line is this:  This is an unknown.  It's all unknown, but the SCOTUS selections are more unknown than most things.  As such, its hard to weigh in the analysis.

I just take the longer view.  If we lose in '08 and Obama replaces Stevens, Ginsburg and Souter, but we win big in '10 and '12 and get whomever we want to replace Scalia, Kennedy, and Breyer, its a win.  At that level, and at other levels.

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2010 Census

I'd rather risk that than the democrats controlling the 2010 census.  If they control the census, the numbers will be so far off the mark it won't be funny.  Blue states will see amazing surges in population out of a desire to "account for the undocumented" so as to avoid any more shift away from rust belt to the sun belt.

 

 

Good analysis

I concur with your analysis.

For the Republicans, a defeat in the presidential bid in 2008 would not cause any significant shifts in the Republican party image. 

In fact, it would allow grass-roots Republicans to develop new and innovative strategies in confronting contemporary issues.  Unlike liberalism, conservatism is a vibrant political philosophy  in both domestic areas and social issues.

On a national scale, the National Democratic Party's new adherence to "new progressivism", in my opinion, will not reasonate with the voters. 

The Democratic Leadeship Committee (DLC--which basically contributed to Clinton victories in 1992 and 1996) has lost its hold upon the Democratic Party.  The moderate wing of the Democratic party is caving in to the New Left.  Harold Ford, Jr and Joe Lieberman have tried to prevent the Democratic party from moving to the Hard Left.

However, conservative populism is an appealing movement, in my opinioin--attack Wall Street for its greed and the increasingly close adherence of Wall Street executives (Goldman Sachs executives are strong supporters of Obama) to the Democratic Party. 

Lastly, one last point:

It is weak argument but if McCain is able to pull  an uspet over Obama, the Democratic Party might split into two factions--moderate wing of the South and West vs. urban-academic wing of the Northeast.  Given the intense primary between Clinton and Obama, the Democratic Party is a house of cards waiting to be blown over.

In essence, a victory by McCain, might just might, put the final nail in the coffin of the Democratic Party as a national party.

 

 

Defeat Obama to lend a blow to the Left

A defeat for Obama is a defeat for the Left. The lesson will be clear: Leftwing liberal Democrats cant win. The consequences will be dire for the Democrats as a whole, either moderate themselves or split.

That defeat of the left alone will make America's future more secure.

obama winning = all bets are off for America.

 

 

The only thing that I really don't want

is the courts moving left, specifically SCOTUS. The thought of Barack Obama picking 2-3 new Justices makes me shudder.

This argument would have been better in 2000 than now.

If Gore had won, he would have inherited a recession, there would have been no tax cuts to stimulate the economy, and Gore would have badly mishandled 9/11.  Yeah there probably would have been at least another major terrorist attack before January 20, 2005 when he would be leaving office but it might have been worth it.

The 2002 midterms and 2004 congressional elections would have probbaly turned out the same perhaps even better for the GOP.  That godforsaken assclown Mark Warner probably would never have been VA governor (the recent trend is the party that loses the WH in the previous year wins the VA governorship the following year).  And Al Gore would have faced a primary '04 (probably from Hillary) which is a sure sign he would lose in November 2004 since the last 3 presidential incumbents to lose all faced primary challenges.

We would have a chance for a real conservative to run in 2004 and maybe win our nomination (assuming we would have somebady who would beat RINO McCain).  And he would win and nominated justices like Roberts and Alito and we would better suited for finally dealing with this Democrat-created mortage mess.  I don't know if there would have been an Iraq war starting in '05 (we know Al Gore wouldn't have gone after Saddam besides maybe the occasional wag the dog bombing of an aspirin factory or something along those lines a la Clinton's example) but if so I am sure it would have played out better if it did, but then again Saddam should have been dealt with during the first Gulf War anyways (thank you Colin Powell).

In your above scenario, Kerry would have appointed two left-wing justices in place of Rehnquist and O'Connor and they would have ruled aginst in Heller thus rendering our 2nd Amendment rights a dead letter.

Most importantly right now we can not allow the Obamunist anywhere near the WH lest we want to live in a third world, socialist hell hole run by corrupt elites.

As long as Palin can come back in 2012

I don't mind letting the country get a hard lesson about liberal policies, but I do have little faith we'll learn from them once and for all.

I'll go with an Obama win if we can have Palin back in 2012. I don't want her banished from the national scene permanently after this.

If she chooses not to come back, fine. But I don't want this election to tarnish her.

A poisoned chalice?

Exactly why I am actually an undecided voter, Sean.

I was never a big fan of McCain, I understand his personal attributes and his policy inclinations.  Some of his background is a good fit for the Presidency in this time and place, some is not a good fit.  Then again, the only elections I have ever been confident about making a positive pick (rather than voting against the alternative) have been 1980 and 1984.

Obama is inexperienced, his background and associates suggest his instincts are pretty far to the left, but he is clearly intelligent and seems to have a cautious disposition.  His advocates can assert that he would grow into the demands of the office, they just cannot support that with any hard evidence.

The next four years could be very tough indeed, and the winner may well regret attaining the burdens of the office, like a thirsty man drinking from a poisoned chalice.  And the Republican party and the right generally may not renew themselves while trying to cling on to the executive and a supporting role as a minority in Congress.

Whoever wins, I hope he serves the country well.  The President is an executive job and can only do so much anyhow, Congress and the economy and world events will be more significant.  Not every four years do we require a Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt, or Reagan, and those people who bundle up all their hopes and aspirations in a candidate for President are just plain silly.

So if losing the White House in 2008 is the price the Republicans have to pay in order to build a better, smarter, less corrupted team and vision for the future, well, we just might have to pay that price.

 

SCOTUS Main Reason

I'm never a fan of the "winning by losing" strategy.  If Obama wins, he'll have 3 SCOTUS appoinments in his first two years.  Those picks will last 20-30 years, that's a lot of damage to conservative policy making.  If McCain can get those picks, we'll have a solid, conservative lock on the judiciary branch of government in this country. 

The secondary reason why McCain needs to win is the Democrats will probably have enough votes to pass Universal Health care, and once you go down that road, you can never go back.

That being said, if Obama wins, 2010 will probably look like 1994, with Republicans taking back both the Senate and House.  I see people getting sick of Obama real quick, and once the idiot voters that put him there see that Bush isn't the reason why the world is so cruel, and Obama is not really the Messiah that's going to make their lives better, they'll turn on him.

Interesting idea

But I'm not sure resigning to defeat is a good thing.  If Kerry had won, it would have been a nightmare. If Obama wins, this will mean a Democratic controlled house, senate and executive branch. This is not the checks and balances our nation needs. For those undecided, I'd urge you to consider this facet and what it would mean. I'd hate the Republicans to continue to have a negative image, but would rather take a negative image than afull frontal leftist government.

Oh, and please stop calling Obama "Messiah" - it's a slam, but implies a recognition that he is not worthy of.

American lives are at stake

You forgot one thing...

Would John Kerry have been able to protect us from additional acts of terrorism?  How many more attacks would have occurred on our soil?  How many more Americans would have died?

The left does not want to talk about this and of course they insist we are fearmongering when we do but Bush does deserve some credit here.  Bush established a new executive department in a remarkably short period of time and has been able to protect us for 7 years.

I don't think you can measure that and to me it transcends politics and outweighs any gains the Republican party could have made had Bush lost the electgion to Kerry.

What Makes You Think

You'll have a choice?

If current trends continue, the GOP will be relegated to a small-sized regional party, centered on the Old Confederacy. 

Santorum and Gingrich and deLay's dream of a dominant GOP, permanently feeding on the mountains of money incumbency brings from Wall Street and Corporate America is basically over, done in by the greed and selfishness of those GOP leaders who lined their pockets first, and who abused their power.

Na, you guys are going back to what you were in the 70's and 80's:  Lone voices whining in the wilderness, your rightful place since you do not represent mainstream values, but are beholden to the extremists you brought in to achieve your temporary majority.

thinks for your oh, so brilliant wisdom!

Now please go back to your minstrel show!  Maybe Daily Kos would be better fit for you!

Maybe there's hope for you yet

You're welcome, "Little" Ben 4 Taking Liberties  .At least you have the sense to recognize wisdom when you see it.

Come to think of it, though, after the reiteration of your "minstrel" idiocy, I take it back.  You wouldn't know wisdom if it cost you an Election.

Yeah recognize your conventional wisdom!

Which is the conventional wisdom of idiots.  So you are welcome!

Are you lost?

Your anger, like most of what the libs are spouting, do nothing to solve problems. Take you teen-angst and your own whining complaints over to TMZ where idiotic and pedantic comments abound.  You'll be welcome there.

Please, do tell me...

What is "extreme" about:

  • wanting to limit the authority of the national government?
  • wanting the government to spend less, and collect less?
  • supporting personal choices in economic decisions?
  • desiring that schools be accountable to their communities?
  • opposing efforts to undermine secret ballot voting?
  • opposing public sector labor unions in their efforts to keep the Mike Wootens of the world employed?
  • a dedication to human rights beginning at birth if not at conception?
  • supporting the right of Americans to defend themselves and their families from criminals?
  • supporting the right of Americans to have accountable leaders?
  • protecting American workers and families from a gang-ruled subculture of illegal migrant work and people-smuggling?
  • believing that defending our values at homes means being able to project our power abroad?
  • Trusting people to make their own health and medical decisions?

I really am quite curious how any of the above is an extreme position, considering that the Democratic Party's presidential nominee began his political career at the home of an admitted terrorist.

 

Thank You

CF, for asking coherent questions, and at least trying to elicit dialogue.

 

  • wanting to limit the authority of the national government?

There is nothing wrong with limiting the authority of government, except that Government has LEGITIMATE and essential, inescapable responsibility for the regulation of the free marketplace.  Capitalism's goal is monopoly and domination: See Microsoft, EXXON-Mobil, AT&T, many more  examples.  Government's role is rightly referee and arbiter wherever there are abuses.  Even Teddy Roosevelt, seminal Republican, understood that.

  • wanting the government to spend less, and collect less?

The only discretionary budget items that have grown out of control under Bush are Defense, Homeland Security, and the Bush Prescription Drug Plan.  Interior, Commerce, Agriculture, all the Departments have barely kept up with inflation.  I have no problem with spending less, collecting less, and having strict oversight.  When the Pentagon tells me they cannot account for a TRILLION dollars in expenditures, we have a serious problem.

  • supporting personal choices in economic decisions?

Unless those personal choices impact the common good.

  • desiring that schools be accountable to their communities?

We already have that. My school's Principal is accountable to my PTA and to his District Superintendent..  I do not support Charter Schools because they cherry-pick students and do not help special kids or immigrants.

  • opposing efforts to undermine secret ballot voting?

Are you talking about Unions?  Secret ballot voting allows bosses to unduly influence the process of a shop unionizing or not.  They can pressure behind the scenes, threaten, and force.  Remember that in a non-Union shop, the boss holds all the cards.

  • opposing public sector labor unions in their efforts to keep the Mike Wootens of the world employed?

Labor unions have been responsible for the Golden Age of the American Middle Class.  They have been under attack for decades, and today only 1 out of 7 workers enjoy Union membership.  Luckily, that is about to change.

  • a dedication to human rights beginning at birth if not at conception?

Roe v Wade allowed the states to set their own standards after the first trimester, 90 days.  I see nothing wrong wit that.  A 90-day fetus is the size of your thumb, cannot survive outside the womb for even a minute, and looks a lot like a straw mushroom.

  • supporting the right of Americans to defend themselves and their families from criminals?

Americans who live in places that allow guns tend to use them in cases other than self-defense.

  • supporting the right of Americans to have accountable leaders?

Who's against that?

  • protecting American workers and families from a gang-ruled subculture of illegal migrant work and people-smuggling?

Are you talking about the Chinese?  No, I didn't think so.  This is anti-brown people.  American companies hire these people and maintain this subculture, not Democrats.

  • believing that defending our values at homes means being able to project our power abroad?

The best way to "protect our power" abroad is to renew America's commitment to justice and the rule of Law.  Conservatives care nothing for this, they are simply terrified of brown people.

  • Trusting people to make their own health and medical decisions?

I would never trust myself to make a Medical decision, I would much rather ask a good  Doctor. 

The Democratic Party is the only Party that is working to change our present dysfunctional system.  A system that produces infant mortality below a dozen countries, and offers the lowest lifespan in the civilized world, and replace it with a new way of doing business.  It will take a lot of work, a lot of back-and-forth, but we can do it.  We are Americans, the greatest, most innovative, most talented, most exceptional people this world has ever seen.

 

We put a man on the moon in 9 years.  Why can't we solve our Healthcare problems in four??

 

Unions are obsolete, and their decling numbers reflect it!

I must disagree wholeheatedly with your analysis.  Tthe time for unions has long since passed.  Today they are instruments of political corruption.  They are joined at the hip with organized crime and their tactics reflect it. 

The secret ballot protects workers as well as bosses from union intimidation. You grossly misunderstand the Wagner Act.  It allows unions the unfettered right to legally trespass on businesses  to promote pro-union propaganda.  Business owners can not legally interfere with that federally protected privledge.  Bosses can promote the other side but workers have to be on the clock and thus being for not working while the bosses present their case.

The unions are losing alot of secret ballot elections so they want the power to harass and intimidate workers into signing a legally binding union contract that would grant them so monopoly pwoer to negoptiate on their behalf. 

Unions no longer believe in voluntary unionism unlike Samuel Gompers.  They want to force people  to join and thus raid their paychecks for dues.  This supports the corrupt fat cats and allows them to use members dues for politcal purposes to support candidates that many rank-and-file members don't support.

Government unions thrive because they are not bound by the limits of the marketplace. They are there only to protect bad workers who would otherwise be fired.  They also engege in politics on the taxpayers dollar.  This is affront to worker and taxpayer freedom.

Fundamentally unions are about corrupt socialism at the expense of those who produce wealth and create jobs.  Those who enjoy union-protected jobs are few and if they got their way, fewer people woulde be able to get jobs as more companies would flee to other countries whose polices are more business-friendly.

Thank you too.

For addressing my points, even if implying, hypocritically no doubt, that all Republicans, libertarians, or conservatives are racists. Now, to your responses: 

 There is nothing wrong with limiting the authority of government, except that Government has LEGITIMATE and essential, inescapable responsibility for the regulation of the free marketplace.  Capitalism's goal is monopoly and domination: See Microsoft, EXXON-Mobil, AT&T, many more  examples.  Government's role is rightly referee and arbiter wherever there are abuses.  Even Teddy Roosevelt, seminal Republican, understood that.

But, does the "To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes" really allow the federal government to dictate to businesses operating in just one state what they can or cannot do? Does said right also really include dictating to firms operating nationwide what wages for their employees, from CEOs on down, can or must be, even after said wages are taxed? Doubtful.

Remember that American ingenuity and innovation you mentioned? The could occur because of limited regulation by government of the economy. What you seem to be advocating here is not limited. A publically-traded company answers and should answer to its shareholders, not to some bureaucrat it had no part in choosing.

The only discretionary budget items that have grown out of control under Bush are Defense, Homeland Security, and the Bush Prescription Drug Plan.  Interior, Commerce, Agriculture, all the Departments have barely kept up with inflation.  I have no problem with spending less, collecting less, and having strict oversight.  When the Pentagon tells me they cannot account for a TRILLION dollars in expenditures, we have a serious problem.

Perhaps you are unfimiliar with the problems faced by unconstitutional government programs which existed well before George Bush was president. Social security, Medicare, and Medicaid are all bankrupting the United States today, and Democrats, not Republicans, oppose efforts to reform them meaningfully. While the present administration's prescription drug program had its faults, any such program could be found to be unjust from a conservative/libertarian perspective, and many Republicans opposed it. Even John McCain voted against it.

Yes, there are excesses which warrant address in Homeland Security and DoD funding, but their functions overall are accounted for in the constitution, unlike the numerous pension programs and excessive health care schemes already in place. John McCain too has been a champion of reducing government waste in Defense and Homeland Securiy too, by the way.

Unless those personal choices impact the common good.

The "common good" could be defined as anything any politician wanted it to be. This is why we have a constitution which limits the powers of government. DNA testing bears in Montana is not in the national common interest, but may be of interest to those in Montana. However, such is why Montana has its own government and collects its own taxes. 

 We already have that. My school's Principal is accountable to my PTA and to his District Superintendent..  I do not support Charter Schools because they cherry-pick students and do not help special kids or immigrants.

Such schools would be even more accountable if organized labor lost its influence on education policy, and if greater control over education was returned to local officials instead of Washington, DC bureaucrats. As for your charter schools claim, I am unfamiliar with it, could you provide reading material on the claim that such schools do not help the students in question?

Are you talking about Unions?  Secret ballot voting allows bosses to unduly influence the process of a shop unionizing or not.  They can pressure behind the scenes, threaten, and force.  Remember that in a non-Union shop, the boss holds all the cards.

Your claims here are unsubstantiated at best, and bogus at worse for why the secret ballot should be abolished or reduced in voting on whether or not to form a union. In a non-union shop, a boss can act responsibly, or see his employess hired by someone else. It's that simple. Now, if you acknowledge that a coercive management is a bad thing, why would you support coercive union practices as supporters of "Card Check" legislation do?

Labor unions have been responsible for the Golden Age of the American Middle Class.  They have been under attack for decades, and today only 1 out of 7 workers enjoy Union membership.  Luckily, that is about to change.

I would disagree that labor unions were responsible for that, rather than say, liberalized trade, the recovery of Europe and Japan after the world wars, and a boom in domestic commerce brought about not by big labor but by entrepreneurs and the military.

Roe v Wade allowed the states to set their own standards after the first trimester, 90 days.  I see nothing wrong wit that.  A 90-day fetus is the size of your thumb, cannot survive outside the womb for even a minute, and looks a lot like a straw mushroom.

Then please, by all means, enlighten us as to why Barack Obama has voted to deny even infants basic human rights, particularly since the junior senator from Illinois was a professor of constitutional law.

Americans who live in places that allow guns tend to use them in cases other than self-defense.

That would explain the higher crime rates in jurisdictions with more gun control laws rather than with fewer. Also, charging people with the crimes they committed is perfectly reasonable, but why does that justify restricting what said individuals possess. Gun possession is a matter of liberty and personal choice, but the taking of a life or violation of a person are things justly regarded as crimes because these things, not the ownership of guns, violate the liberty of others.

Who's against that?

People who make transparency more difficult in political financing, and who hold that virtual child pornography is more valid a form of speech or self-expression than is being allowed to write a $10,000 dollar check to a politician one wishes to support.

Are you talking about the Chinese?  No, I didn't think so.  This is anti-brown people.  American companies hire these people and maintain this subculture, not Democrats.

Gangs of any background, really. Regardless, why do Democrats oppose enforcing our immigration laws as they are, and clamping down on the ability of illegal immigrants to find work in this country if Democrats are not in part to blame for this problem?

Also, why is someone who wants responsible debate, blindly accusing his opponents of racism? Maybe this is why Barack Obama is not leading more decisively in the polls. Just something to consider.

The best way to "protect our power" abroad is to renew America's commitment to justice and the rule of Law.  Conservatives care nothing for this, they are simply terrified of brown people.

Again with these unsubstantiated allegations? So much for a respectful exchange of ideas. Now, of course, conservatives must be terrified of brown people if they read the columns of people like Michele Malkin, Walter Williams, Linda Chavez, and Thomas Sowell. Perhaps this is why allegedly conservative presidents have been the first to put African-Americans, Asians, and Hispanics into new positions of power. I, for one, am glad that liberals concerned with justice and the rule of law have stopped complaining about Al Gore's loss of the 2000 presidential election...oh, wait, they haven't. So much for THAT claim you made. 

 

I would never trust myself to make a Medical decision, I would much rather ask a good  Doctor. 

The Democratic Party is the only Party that is working to change our present dysfunctional system.  A system that produces infant mortality below a dozen countries, and offers the lowest lifespan in the civilized world, and replace it with a new way of doing business.  It will take a lot of work, a lot of back-and-forth, but we can do it.  We are Americans, the greatest, most innovative, most talented, most exceptional people this world has ever seen.

Democrats are not the only ones working on health care reform. Now, you're being disingenous, and that is more of the same rather than change we can believe in. As for medical descisions, yes, they should be made by doctors in consultation with their patients, and not influenced or directed by bureaucrats, as Democrats seem to advocate. 

 

No.

The Presidency is always worth winning. And, for the record, I am not a Republican.  I am conservative, and will be voting for McCain and hoping very much that he wins.

Having America suffer through four years of Obama so that you can say "I told you so," is not worth it.

Interesting thoughts

Sean,

As you say "Now the counter-argument to all this -- and it is not a small one -- is that we would have lost Iraq." Vietnam is a ghost that keeps on haunting and Kerry would have seen to it that we would have had the twin ghosts of Vietnam and Iraq to haunt and hinder our foreign policy for decades to come. A Iraq war would have reinforced all the wrong lessons of Vietnam. Any future military action would face the question 'do we want another Vietnam and Iraq?' That would be a persuasive argument against military action for many Americans for quite a few decades. At the same time foreign powers would have less reason to take America seriously, encouraging all sorts of regional wars. A Bush loss in 2004 would not have been good for the country, even if it would have been good for Republicans in the long term.

We can tackle our domestic issues on our own time. All the participants are Americans, after all. Foreign affairs, on the other hand, involves many actors other then ourselves. Many nations would not hesitate to take advantage of a preoccupied or inept America. We simply cannot afford that as every foreign policy problem that we have ignored has only come back to haunt us bigger and badder then before. A prime example: Had we not been so timid because of the supposed Vietnam lesson, Bush Sr. might have dealt with Iraq in during the first war.

I remember thinking back then that we could suffer a president who doesn't take the ever ill named WoT seriously in 2008 after we had won the Iraq war. I could not, however, have imagined how bad the democratic candidate would be in 2008. Better to consider the rebound that would result from an Obama presidency as the silver lining to a McCain defeat, should it occur, then as something we may desire.

Been there, said that

Click here

  

ex animo

davidfarrar

Illinois

Here in Illinois, there was an awful lot of talk a loss in 2002 would bring us back better than ever next time.  Or at least the time after that.

Guess how well that worked out.

I disagree strongly with what

I disagree strongly with what I am reading here.  You never give up or concede defeat, even temporary, in this battle to preserve freedom. 

My entire life I have never seen the socialists/democrats give up or stop trying to push their agenda.  Look at the result!  Virtually the entire socialist platform of the 1920's and 30's is now in effect.  Back then they knew they needed to indoctrinate the young in socialist ideas, so they went after the schools.  Worked pretty well for them so far.

I have seen time after time republicans and conservatives trying to reach across the aisle and get left with a bloody stump for their efforts.  And every time our freedom eroded just a bit more.

If what you believe is worth fighting for, then fight, damn it! 

 

losing is not a strategy

What you call "the longer view," I call horse crap.  Losing is not a strategy, ever.  The popular meme about Carter causing Reagan is a textbook example of the "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacy.  Reagan was a rising star in 1976, and to argue that he never would have become President if Ford had won in 1976 is pure speculation.  Even if one assumes that one event did cause the other, the trade-off was lousy.  After one term of Carter and two terms of Reagan, we still had a Department of Education, Iran was still a major threat to world stability, the Ninth Circuit was still a hotbed of leftist judicial activism, and we still hadn't gotten the Panama Canal back.  Come to think of it, all these problems persist to this day, as does Carter himself constantly undermining U.S. foreign policy like only an ex-President can.  If all this and more was the price we had to pay for two terms of the Gipper, then with all due respect to the Gipper price was far too high.

At least Carter didn't get to appoint any Supreme Court Justices.  Next time around, there's no reason to assume we will be so lucky.  If Kerry had won in 2004, the Second Amendment would have been wiped off the face of the earth by a 6-3 margin, and there isn't a damned thing the most Republican Senate imaginable could (or would) have done to stop it then, nor is there anything a future Republican President and Senate could do to fix it in the foreseeable future.  One-tenth of the Bill of Rights would simply be gone.  Today's Iraq would be every bit the threat to the region that Iran is, only this time the two countries would likely be aligned. 

Yes, the next President will inherit a crummy economy that probably won't go perfect overnight.  So what?  That doesn't mean he'll get blamed for it, as unlike the Clinton/Bush recession, everyone will remember that things went south on his predecessor's watch, not his.  No one blamed FDR for the Great Depression, even though by all right they probably should have, as it was his New Deal that made the depresssion "great."

I suspect CT Democrats had similar thoughts in 1990

"we'll lose the governorship to Weicker this year, hey, the economy sucks, we don;t want the blame for the tax hikes next year, and  Weicker will never win a second term".

Of course, then John Rowland and Jodi Rell went on to win four gubernatorial elections in a row in a very blue state.

The Perotistas in 1992 came close to emulating this. 583 more FL Gore votes and we have the alt-history of how Gore reacts to 9/11.....it's possible at this point we would be at the end of 16 years of Dem presidents by now 

On the question of governors...

Maryland elected its first Republican governor in 36 years in 2002. As governor, former congressman Robert Ehrlich managed an increasingly large state budget by making relevant adjustments in spending, and, yes, by raising some fees. However, Ehrlich did not raise taxes as governor. Likewise, Ehrlich blunted Democratic efforts at growing government unnecessarily, and similar legislative efforts regarding immigration.

Unfortunately, the unpopularity of George Bush and Republicans in 2006 cost Ehrlich his reelection bid. Now, under a former Baltimore mayor, Marylanders are paying higher taxes, and will face a revenue charade in referendum at the polls in November. Meanwhile, businesses, hit hard by the new taxes of the O'Malley administration, are suffering along with Maryland residents and families.

I tend to think that Robert Ehrlich would have been reelected had Kerry won the White House in the 2004 election. Had that been the case, Maryland would probably be doing better than it is today, and a promising "red" governor in a "blue" state would continue to inspire young conservatives in an out of Maryland. It may even be possible that we would be talking today about Republican presidential nominee Robert Ehrlich had Kerry defeated Bush. However, I wonder how many other promising governorships ended because of the difficulties of these four years.

As such, I found the post being commented upon here to be apt. We don't always want to win the presidency, it's true. However, at the same time, we don't want to plague the country with the sort of Democratic one-party rule that is the norm in Maryland either.

Ox am I sensing despair, discouragement...

...defeatism, here?  That maybe it'd be good for Repub's to lose this one?  A loss once in awhile may have, in the past, been a healthy -- adjustment.  But the democrat party was much different 25 or 30 years ago.  They still had  many among their number that  were reasonable.  Rational.  No longer the case, man.  We watched them toss the last "reasonable" person out - Joe Lieberman.   The dem party is now made up totally  of the irrational and emotional.  I don't need to tell you. You know.  

If the dems take over  they're 1st order of business;  make darn sure that they never, ever lose power again.   Starting at the National level down to the governors/state houses and municipalities.  All the way down to dog catcher.  They're going to turn gerrymandering into a fine art.   They'll use every dirty trick available.  They'll break the law - no problem because they'll own the judges on the bench.   They'll build a voting base by making it possible for felons, non-U.S. citizens and illegal's to vote.  Openly.  They're already doing this on a  small scale.    These people have zero scruples, they have no shame and are incapable of guilt.  I've written more on this subject here ( link ) if you have time.  Don't underestimate the depravity of these democrats and the lengths and depths that they'll go   to attain the power/control they  lust for.  They're not  the Democratic Party of our Fathers/Grandfathers. 

Its hard to keep from getting discouraged, for sure, when the McCain camp seems to be stagnating.  They've obviously put Sarah Palin on a short leash.  Seems almost hopeless.  But then there's always divine intervention.  Ha!  Think about this.  A year ago among the commenter's on this page who would've thought McCain would be where he is today?  I felt he had no chance at that time.  Somehow there will be a way for McCain to pull this off and stroll leisurely  into the oval office come 1/20/09.  Losing is not really an option .  Though among most of the GOP Hierarchy, winning is low on their list of priorities.  Just keep doing what you do to spite them.  Keep the constructive criticism coming.  Maybe "they're" listening.  Who knows. Their loss if they're not. DD

 

Silver lining in the cloud

Just because there may be a silver lining that doesn't negate the existence of the cloud.

The raison d'etre of a political party is to win. 

You don't advance your agenda if you aren't ever in office, and we don't know what events will unfold in the next four years.  Probably an economic recovery by 2010 that the next Prez can "claim" credit for.  Victory in Iraq.  You wanna hand Obama the victory in Iraq that McCain fought so hard for?

The trade-offs

If Obama wins this, I'm betting the Democratic turnout gives him an even stronger majority in both chambers of Congress.  In two years, Democrats can do a lot of damage: to the Supreme Court, the effects of which will undoubtedly last decades; and also in terms of new programs and bureaucracies which will be perhaps even harder to overturn.

That said, the Democrats will not be able to spend as they please in the next two years.  Obama's tax plan is out the window, as is McCain's.  The old tax cuts will sunset, and we will not see income taxes cut any time in the next two years under either McCain or Obama.  The financial crisis--with its apparent price tag of more than a trillion dollars--has precluded all of that talk, and will seriously constrain either party in power.

As for the next two years after that: Obama, whatever his virtues, is not Bill Clinton, and he gives no signs that he will govern like Bill Clinton, which means that even if Republicans sweep into office in 2010 a la 1994, they won't get nearly what the Class of '94 got out of Bill.  I don't see Obama and a Republican-controlled Congress resolving the Social Security mess.

And then we have to deal with the consequences of a Democrat foreign policy for the next two years, which has its good points and bad points.  It's hard to imagine a wholly Democrat-led federal government leaving the country with a stronger, better-prepared military, even if they give the troops a rest from the harsh deployments of the last five years.  I frankly don't know what Obama would do concerning Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, China, Russia, Darfur... he's slippery like that.  I believe he could justify to the Democrats any change in policy he cares to make, once he's in a position of power and responsibility.  But one thing it guarantees is that the Democrats will finally get some foreign policy experience; one of the benefits of holding the White House is that you build up your farm team of foreign policy experts, and the opposition party is out in the cold, never getting to test their ideas or show their management capabilities.

But the Democrat brand may indeed be heavily damaged by a demonstrated incapacity to deal with the financial, housing and fiscal crises.  If there's any possibility that the Republicans could avert disaster while the Democrats cannot, that's a horribly expensive lesson to learn.  Or maybe they take their lumps and this financial crisis works itself out faster than some are predicting, and they get to credibly say that the financial crisis started on Bush's watch and was resolved under the Democrats.

Whether or not McCain wins, Palin is still a player in 2012.  McCain, whether popular or unpopular, could bow out in 2012 and say he's done his job, and now it's time to hand over responsibility to a new generation of Republicans, different from the ones who preceded him.  If he's still relatively popular as one-term presidents go, he could go out by aggressively campaigning for, say, a Palin-Jindal ticket.  Or, if McCain loses, Palin gets another 2+ years of executive experience in Alaska, and Jindal similarly gets more experience in Louisiana.

Do We Want to Win this Election?

I can't believe what I just read. With friends like this, who (on McCain's side) needs the Obama campaign?

McCain respresents fiscal responsibility. Last I heard we had an outrageous national debt and an unpredictable but surging creditor nation in China. You really think four years from now, after a Democratic administration and Congress, this situation is going to be more palatable? This election may be the last opportunity to get a handle on the national debt.

That's an accurate and firm

That's an accurate and firm analysis specially from a health insurance geek's point of view who wants the life saving information to be spread like the business cards. While the national debt needs to be handled well and with utmost care, I think this could only be possible with effective business services setup.