Obama Fundraising Petering Out?

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

Back after the May fundraising numbers came out, I hypothesized thusly in a comment:

I'd been saying for a while that we could expect a major drop-off in [Obama's] fundraising.  People have been crowing about his small donor base, and how he could keep tapping that.

But it isn't necessarily true.  When I was in law school, I gave GWB $300 online after he was the presumptive nominee but before he was the actual nominee.  But it would be foolish to assume that you could keep coming back to me again and again up to $4600. Or even up to $400.  On my law student budget, that was it.  Add in the "shiny new toy" aspect to Obamania back in February, and I think you can see why his fundraising has dropped off.

Maybe the Clinton folk will come up big for him.  I don't know.  But this really might be the first big strategic gaffe for the Obama campaign.

Now, Kavon Nikrad over at Race42008 writes:

There is a good chance Barack Obama’s fundraising total from June will be less than the $22 million he raised in May. No word on whether McCain’s fundraising total was up from then, but if you recall, Sen. McCain only came in $1 million behind Obama for the month.

Nothing is certain, but there is at least the possiblity (remember-I said possibility) that John McCain outraised Barack Obama in June.

I'm not certain what Kavon's sourcing is here, but if it is true, Obama might have a real problem here.  I've been skeptical of the notion that he can wring a half billion dollars out of Dem donors, in addtion to the quarter billion that was wrung out of Dem donors for the primary, and continue to be so skeptical.

UPDATE: I should add that BarackObama.com is not exactly blowing up in terms of traffic . . . McCain's traffic, by contrast is actually higher than during other lull periods during the campaign.

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Comments

Except ..

Obama's web traffic still dwarfs McCain .. but I doubt Obama will have trouble raising money for the general .. besides .. he wasn't focused on raising GE money during the primary(while Hillary actually collected a substantial amount of GE money .. which she has to return) .. he'll be fine

MyBarackObama

The higher Obama traffic is simply due to MyBarackObama. His supporters have a reason to keep coming back. But I do agree Obama won't be hurting for money. the Democrats have their strongest chance at winning the White House since Clinton. They'll pony up enough cash. What this does is give McCain an opportunity to alter the narrative a bit that he'll be overmatched by the Obama money machine.

I'm not sure the Obama

I'm not sure the Obama campaign is as reliant on its small-dollar donors as the media would often have us believe. The campaign generated some great PR by highlighting select small-dollar donors with interesting/potentially message-relevant back stories. At the end of the day, it seems likely that Obama can count on traditional Democratic high dollar donors (Big Labor, Big Law, Hollywood, etc) and maybe some new money types with liberal inclinations. As far as other high-dollar donors go, like finance and private equity types trying to get in good with who they perceive as the inevitable next president, the stem of those donations probably depend on momentum.

 

He outspent Hillary 3-1 in PA and 2-1 in Ohio

and he still couldn't bring home those bitter Bible-toting gunslinger votes.  Let him spend all the money he wants on dumb, negative anti-McCain ads.  As long as McCain's camp is putting out the good stuff we're seeing this week, I think John "I was loving my country while you hippies were getting herpes at Woodstock" McCain has a real chance to beat the socks off Barack "Keep the Change" Obama. 

45% of Obama's money came from small donors in the primary.

A lot of the big rollers in the democratic party have yet to give to him and he's been making the rounds lately. I read online that at one dinner he netted a nice cool five million. With the Hillary Clinton people coming on board and him sending emails and focusing on fundraising, I think the Obama camp will have the money they need.

They're playing across the board in a big way with big money IMO because they're trying to get McCain to do what Clinton did in Pennsylvania: spend in a futlie attempt to keep up. What is surprsing is the innovative way the McCain campaign has found to keep up. They may not have the messaging control, but the coordination between groups has always been better on the R-side and between 527s, Gov. Association, the RNC, and his own solid uptick in fundraising I think McCain will be just fine.

Hhmmm ..

So are you saying that McCain talks to the RNC .. and the RNC talks to the 527's? ... I thought McCain was against 527's ...  I guess he was against them ... before he was for them!!