Home › Blogs › Sean Oxendine's blog ›

On The Pennsylvania Polling

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 15:27

On Pennsylvania Polling

There’s been quite a dust-up in the blogosphere over the ARG poll showing Obama up four in Pennsylvania, but also showing a 53-39 Democratic/Republican registration edge. This was observed by Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot, and followed up by writers like Kavon Nikrad at Race42008.com. Today, there’s a SurveyUSA poll out showing a six-point Obama edge, but also showing a 51-38 D/R edge.

Some have called this weighting into question. There’s some reason for this. The 2006 exit poll – a very good year – showed a 43-38 Democratic edge in the actual electorate. The 2004 exit poll showed a 41-39 Democratic edge. 2002 data aren’t available, but the unweighted 2000 data show a 42-39 Democratic edge.

So in a very good Democratic year, a mildly bad Democratic year, and a middling year, we’ve seen Democrats fairly steadily trading in a 41-43 percent range, while Republicans are in the 38-39 percent range.

The defense for SurveyUSA and ARG is that they are pegged directly to the Pennsylvania voter registration statistics, which presently shows a 51-38 Democratic edge.

One question we can ask is “what did the party registration numbers look like in 2000, 2004, and 2006?” Do Democrats traditionally underperform their registration?

The answer to this is “yes, they do historically underperform.” In 2000, Democrats held a 48-42% edge over Republicans. In other words, the Democratic electorate was 6 percent less Democratic and 3 percent less Republican than registration numbers showed

In 2004, the registered electorate was 48-41% Democratic. Democrats underperformed their registration by seven points, while Republicans underperformed by two points.

In 2006, the registered electorate was 48-40% Democratic. Democrats underperformed by five points while Republicans, again, underperformed by two.

So there is something to the argument that Democrats typically perform worse than their voter registration numbers would indicate.

Unfortunately, comparing registration data to exit polls results is a little like comparing apples to oranges. Someone might be registered Democrat, but consider themselves an independent who is registered in one party or the other for purposes of the primary or whatever. So the registration statistics might show one thing while the exit polls show another. That would actually make things a wash. While we might be able to expect the election day registration numbers to be more heavily independent than registration statistics would show, we can probably also assume that Obama will get more Democrats than polls predict, since independents are disproportionately included in the Democrats’ polling sample. A more intriguing possibility is that much of the Democrats’ surge in voter registration comes from Democratic-leaning independents becoming actual Democrats. Regardless, I don’t think that you can engage in the kind of re-weighting that Geraghty engaged in with ARG, because I think that you’re conflating two different data sets. And incidentally, though SUSA tended to be pro-Kerry in PA in 2004, its final poll pretty well nailed it.

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)

Comments

Chaos in Pennsylvania?

Submitted by aberman on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 16:04.

Maybe this should be taken into account when looking at the registration numbers?

You're Right About Party Registration

Submitted by Jeff Roberts on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 16:16.

What people are registered as, and what people call themselves are two very different things. 

I'm sure "officially" according to the state of Pennsylvania,  the number of registered Democrats far outnumbers Republicans.  When you actually ask people, either through exit polls or surveys, they will tell you "I'm a Democrat, or I'm a Republican" based on their ideology at that point in time, even if their voter card says something different.

I know a lot of people who registered as Democrats when they were young (and stupid :), and as they have gotten older, have become Republicans, but never went to the state and changed their official registration.

I think a much more accurate number of the partisan makeup that actually shows up at election day comes from past exit polling data.  Averaging the 2006 and 2004 number is probably pretty close to what will happen on election day.

McCain is actually doing quite well in Penn. when you break down the numbers.  With Obama's "bitter" comments, Biden's coal gaffe, and an older electorate, I could see McCain picking off this purple state.  If Obama loses Penn, it's over.

Voter registration in PA

Submitted by Chris Palko on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 18:16.

is close to meaningless.  Lots of "Republicans" in the Philly suburbs who vote consistently Democrat.  And lots of "Democrats" who haven't voted for a Democrat in 20 years.  The whole media buzz about a wave of Dem registrations in PA was meaningless because it was a bunch of Philly suburbanites who had been voting Dem for a decade or so anyway just confirming what they were in their hearts.

Some examples of how meaningless registration is in PA (especially Western PA):

Beaver County:

Registration as of 9/8/08 (from Sec of State website)

69,438 D (60.1%)  35,600 R (30.8%)  10,521 I (9.1%)

2004 Presidential election results

Kerry 42,146 (51.1%)  Bush 39,916 (48.4%)

Westmoreland County:

Registration

135,041 D (55.3%)  86,032 R (35.2%)  23,335 I (9.5%)

2004 Election

Bush 100,087 (56.0%) Kerry 77,774 (43.5%)

The counties surrounding Pittsburgh are all like this, though they vary by how many were registered Dems.  The irony is that these people are NOT Reagan Democrats.  Both of these counties voted for Mondale, and by decent margins.  It's been in the past ten years that they trended Republican.  Of course, the opposite phenomenon occured in the Philly suburbs.  But if Obama loses PA, it will be here.

McPalin drew a huge crowd in Delaware County

Submitted by Ironman on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 22:07.

one of those nominaly Republican SEPA counties which gave Kerry a 40K plurality

Public Hangings coming to a place near you!

Submitted by gunthestops on Thu, 09/25/2008 - 21:58.

 

Well I would not worry about Pennsylvania---it will not mean much if this financial deal on the hill does not get done. People will be more interested in public hangings of Republicans and they probably won’t be too picky either. 
This is the real emergency: the commercial paper market (short term money) hundreds of billions that are churning through the financial system everyday to fund money market funds, payrolls, and hundreds of other daily business operation  is close to completely seizing up again (it happened last week and that is what really spooked the FED into action). If that happens look out below, the stock market will probably go first because investors and institutions will start runs on their MMFs causing liquidity a crunch, then the banks will be next. If you think your money is good in banks, think again The FDIC was not designed to handle mass bank failures----So I guess this is where Wall Street meets Main Street---see you in line!

 

Ah, the doom and glom patrol is here

Submitted by Big Ben 4 liberty on Fri, 09/26/2008 - 09:09.

I see that facts once again don't matter to you.  There are still plenty of banks that finanacially solvent.  They are the ones who stayed out of the bad loan mess.  They also don't want those other banks, run by the corporate socialists who are big Obama supporters, getting a taxpayer bailout. 

But I guess when it comes to Democrats bad news (even exaggerated bad nes) is good news since it means attacking Republicans (even if means ignoring culpability the real criminals of this mess like Chris Dodd, Barney Frank or John Kerry).  I really don't see how trumped outr partisan political witchhunts against the Republicans are going those who are in financial trouble.

Pennsylvania

Submitted by Dix Handley on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 09:31.

I live in Central Pennsylvania.  Back in the 80's I went to bed early and the races for Treasurer, Attorney General and Auditor General were led late in the late by the democratic candidates.  If I recall correctly the republicans Budd Dwyer was running for treasurer, Lee Roy Zimmerman for AG and I can't recall who was for Auditor General but they were way behind.  I woke up the next morning and all three republicans had won.  They got those late counted votes in Central Pa. which is the Lancaster, York, Harrisburg areas up to Altoona and north.  The reason republicans have a difficult time now is because of what I call the "air-head"  female voters in the Philadelphia suburbs.  These are the women that only care about one issue in my opinion, that being abortion.  They'd sooner vote a candidate down simply because they are pro-life even if that  candidate represented them on 95% of the other issues.  Couple with that the blue collar white vote in SW Pittsburgh and NW Erie areas it's hard for a republican to make up the difference in the central part of the state.  A few years back Governor Rendell fail asleep at the job when we incurred a major snowstorm.  Route 78 stayed shut down for nearly a week because those under him didn't react quick enough.  At that time if the Governor had been republican he would have never survived the next election but because "fast Eddie" has that D beside his now he took no flack for what happened.  It should serve to remind us that democrats now win in Pennsylvania no matter what happens.  Even the last US Senate election where Rick Santorum lost to an empty suit in Bob Casey Jr. by a 61-39 margin, Casey never outlined what he was for or against.  He just ran against Santorum and attacked him mostly on personal statements that Santorum had made over the 12 years he had been in office.  Ask anyone now what Casey has done in the last two years, I'd be surprised if you got an answer.  I'm pessimistic about McCain's chances.  In my heart of hearts Obama is going to win.  He will win Pennsylvania unless McCain and Palin can reach out to the NRA vote in Erie, Pittsburgh, Wilkes Barre and Central Pa.   One last thing is Joke Biden hasn't lived in Scranton since he was 10, McCain has to hit him hard on the gun issue because if he is successful at doing so, McCain still has a chance.  But here is the deal, its like playing a one on one playground basketball game and you give your opponent a 10 point lead, now you have to make it up.  That's what McCain has to do in all these states that are considered blue, go in with the idea you're running behind by 10 points.  If you can make those points up, you win, if not, you lose.  McCain is behind the 8 ball and time is running out.

Unfortunately that is why the Northeast is declining

Submitted by Big Ben 4 liberty on Sat, 09/27/2008 - 17:39.

Those states are now unthinkingly liberal ones, and foolishly vote accordingly.  They think they continue lose ground because of Republican policies but refuse to look at facts that show their states are continuing to lose ground to southern, sunbelt, praire and mountain west states.  Recently I saw a report that feared that New England states might freeze this winter because poeple their will not be able to afford to heat their homes due to rising fuel prices.  These same idiots that vote for far-left candidates who steadfastly refuse to allow any new drilling in this country no matter what or oppose the building of any new refineries.  Well I say they got what they voted for, so if they end up freezing their asses off this winter then it serves them right.