Home › Blogs › Sean Oxendine's blog ›

OxMethod -- 9/15

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Mon, 09/15/2008 - 16:56

Well, the bounce period is over, and we can finally get some real sense of where the race stands post-Convention.  The bottom line is a lot has moved, but not much of importance has changed.  We see red states have gotten a lot redder, blue states have gotten a little redder, and swing states have pretty much stayed the same.  McCain still trails narrowly in the electoral college, 273-265.  Interestingly, the population-weighted state poll average shows a national vote of 46.5-45.6 McCain, while the national polls show  a 46-45.8 McCain lead.

Note:  Post-convention, I only weight polls taken within the last 30 days.  If there are no polls, I will use the last available poll.  In October, this will switch to 15 days.

Previous map:

 

Photobucket

Latest map:

 

Photobucket

 

Results trend:

 

  8/21 8/28 9/15
AL 17.7 17.9 20.0
AK 4.4 4.2 28.1
AZ 13.2 11.1 10.0
AR 10.0 10.0 10.0
CA -15.9 -14.3 -13.0
CO -0.1 -0.5 -2.2
CT -15.5 -14.2 -22.0
DE -9.0 -9.0 -12.0
FL 2.7 3.1 4.5
GA 8.8 9.3 15.4
HI -30.0 -30.0 -30.0
ID 13.0 13.0 39.0
IL -14.5 -14.6 -15.0
IN 5.9 6.0 4.3
IA -6.6 -6.4 -13.6
KS 15.8 19.2 23.0
KY 16.0 16.1 18.0
LA 18.2 18.2 18.0
ME -12.2 -12.2 -14.0
MD -10.0 -10.0 -13.0
MA -14.5 -14.2 -9.0
MI -4.1 -4.1 -2.2
MN -6.0 -6.1 -3.9
MS 10.6 11.9 16.9
MO 4.9 5.2 5.3
MT -1.0 -0.4 11.0
NE 18.9 19.0 19.0
NV 1.4 0.5 1.0
NH -1.8 -1.7 -5.3
NJ -9.4 -9.6 -6.5
NM -6.0 -4.7 -2.2
NY -18.3 -17.5 -8.0
NC 4.5 4.0 17.0
ND 1.8 2.0 14.0
OH 3.0 1.6 1.8
OK 32.0 32.0 32.0
OR -7.0 -6.9 -7.0
PA -5.6 -5.7 -3.0
RI -24.9 -21.2 -21.0
SC 11.3 11.5 13.0
SD 4.0 4.0 17.0
TN 15.0 22.8 25.0
TX 8.6 9.4 10.0
UT 19.0 38.4 38.0
VT -34.0 -34.0 -34.0
VA 0.6 0.3 2.3
WA -10.5 -10.4 -3.8
WV 8.0 8.0 5.0
WI -7.3 -7.1 -3.0
WY 19.0 37.0 24.0
  262 262 265

 

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)

Comments

Hey Ox, wish I could be...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Mon, 09/15/2008 - 18:45.

...as optimistic about Texas as you and your pollsters are.  But I'm not and here's why:   (link )

There's are large pockets of angst/anger directed towards McCain, "W" and the GOP Hierarchy down here from former GOP voters.   I'm not certain that the GOP is aware that there "may" be  problems down here.  Maybe its just me.  I live here and am up close and personal with it on a daily basis.   I remain convinced, however, that many of these former GOP'rs will indeed either stay at home or vote for some 3rd party nut candidate as it happened on 11/7/06.

Were I McCain and/or Palin I'd make sure I spent some time here and especially down along the border.  I'd advise them to meet with Monica Ramos and Patty Compean.  At least meet with them.  They wouldn't have to agree to pardon their husbands - just meet with them. 

McCain can't win without the support of these disaffected, estranged former gop voters.   And McCain can forget about getting any more than 20-25% of the Hispanic vote down here, anyway.   Darvin Dowdy

 

 

I really appreciate your suggestions

Submitted by lagomorph on Mon, 09/15/2008 - 20:13.

Especially meeting with the Ramos and Compean families.  Thank you so much for reminding us.  As a Southern California resident in the border city of San Diego, my heart completely goes out to those brave men, their loving families, and the terrible injustice done to them by the corrupt U.S. Attorney Johnny Sutton.  When the only Democratic Senator worth a tinker's damn in California, Diane Feinstein, concluded there was "prosecutorial overreach" a year ago and pleaded with President Bush to release them and nothing happened, many of us here were absolutely disgusted, depressed and disheartened.  I commend you for re-raising this extremely dark stain on the U.S. Justice system and on the current administration.  I hope and pray that McCain/Palin will distance themselves from President Bush by reaching out to Texas in this matter, among others.

Thanks lagomorph...

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Mon, 09/15/2008 - 22:15.

...hey San Diego.  Thats Duncan Hunter country isn't it?  Man I miss that guy. DD

Duncan Hunter is the MAN

Submitted by lagomorph on Tue, 09/16/2008 - 18:26.

Both Duncan Hunters, in fact.   Captain Duncan Hunter, USMC, had one of the first websites to host the video of Joe Cook ("Dear Mr. Obama"). 

San Diego conservatives are still bitter and clinging to our guns and religion because Duncan Hunter, Sr. didn't go a lot further in the Primary.  But at least we get to keep him here awhile longer.  And that's a good thing.  :-)

So...

Submitted by Bryan Pick on Tue, 09/16/2008 - 12:47.

... given the Obama campaign's ground game and the tie-breakers you talked about--especially the demographics of the undecideds--how would you have MI, CO and NM (all -2.2) breaking?  How about PA and WI (both -3.0)?  Are there any other states where you think the undecideds could break hard enough for an upset?

Bryan Pick

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Tue, 09/16/2008 - 20:52.

Dunno.  My gut was MI NM OA break McCain, CO WI toward Obama.  More on this later.