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OxMethod -- 9/22 Update

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Tue, 09/23/2008 - 16:46

In this weeks' edition of the OxMethod -- which weights polls based on their prior accuracy and on their age (phasing out polls after 30 days) -- we see some of John McCain's bounce starting to fade. This will likely become more dramatic over the next few days. Senator Obama leads with 273 votes to McCain's 265. Interestingly, the closest state to flipping to McCain is New Hampshire -- if it were to do so, it would be an electoral tie. Also, it is worth noting that shifting the map 3.4 points toward Senator McCain would make it reflect a 2.5 point win for McCain -- the same win Bush had. If that happened, 34 of the 50 states would be polling within 4 points of the actual spread in 2004. This is amazing. 8 states have moved four or more points toward McCain relative to 2004 (MN, WA, ID, NY, AZ, KS, MA, TN) and 8 states have moved four or more points toward Obama relative to 2004 (WV, IA, UT, WY, MT, ND, IN, and HI). That is remarkable stability in the map. This Map: Photobucket Last Map Photobucket Trend Chart

  8/21 8/28 9/15 9/22
AL 17.7 17.9 20.0 26.1
AK 4.4 4.2 28.1 21.3
AZ 13.2 11.1 10.0 17.0
AR 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
CA -15.9 -14.3 -13.0 -15.1
CO -0.1 -0.5 -2.2 -2.4
CT -15.5 -14.2 -22.0 -13.3
DE -9.0 -9.0 -12.0 -11.6
FL 2.7 3.1 4.5 3.3
GA 8.8 9.3 15.4 13.0
HI -30.0 -30.0 -30.0 -31.0
ID 13.0 13.0 39.0 40.7
IL -14.5 -14.6 -15.0 -14.8
IN 5.9 6.0 4.3 1.4
IA -6.6 -6.4 -13.6 -9.5
KS 15.8 19.2 23.0 32.0
KY 16.0 16.1 18.0 18.8
LA 18.2 18.2 18.0 13.8
ME -12.2 -12.2 -14.0 -9.4
MD -10.0 -10.0 -13.0 -14.8
MA -14.5 -14.2 -9.0 -9.0
MI -4.1 -4.1 -2.2 -2.9
MN -6.0 -6.1 -3.9 -2.5
MS 10.6 11.9 16.9 16.9
MO 4.9 5.2 5.3 4.8
MT -1.0 -0.4 11.0 7.0
NE 18.9 19.0 19.0 26.0
NV 1.4 0.5 1.0 2.0
NH -1.8 -1.7 -5.3 -0.8
NJ -9.4 -9.6 -6.5 -6.9
NM -6.0 -4.7 -2.2 -5.5
NY -18.3 -17.5 -8.0 -13.1
NC 4.5 4.0 17.0 9.9
ND 1.8 2.0 14.0 12.0
OH 3.0 1.6 1.8 2.2
OK 32.0 32.0 32.0 30.3
OR -7.0 -6.9 -7.0 -6.0
PA -5.6 -5.7 -3.0 -2.0
RI -24.9 -21.2 -21.0 -21.8
SC 11.3 11.5 13.0 12.5
SD 4.0 4.0 17.0 17.0
TN 15.0 22.8 25.0 33.0
TX 8.6 9.4 10.0 21.0
UT 19.0 38.4 38.0 34.6
VT -34.0 -34.0 -34.0 -21.7
VA 0.6 0.3 2.3 1.9
WA -10.5 -10.4 -3.8 -4.6
WV 8.0 8.0 5.0 4.3
WI -7.3 -7.1 -3.0 -2.3
WY 19.0 37.0 24.0 28.6
  262 262 265 265

 

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Payday Loan Advocate for thenextright.com

Submitted by paydayloanadvocate (not verified) on Fri, 09/26/2008 - 04:15.


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