Senate Preview 2010

In light of Patrick’s earlier post on the importance of Senate recruiting, I thought it would be good to give a preliminary outlook of where things stand in the Senate. I’ve divided the Senate seats for 2010 up into three categories for each party: Seats that will be competitive no matter what, seats that could be competitive with the right national environment and/or recruiting effort, and seats that would require a major shift in the national environment to become competitive. 

At first glance, the outlook is pretty grim for Republicans. Of the two competitive Senate seats for the Democrats, both probably at least slightly lean their way to start. For the Republicans, probably three of the four Senate seats for Republicans are at best 50-50. With the right combination of recruiting, retirements and national environment, this could easily get really bad, really quickly. Considering that at the beginning of this cycle only the open Colorado seat and maybe Oregon or Minnesota would be placed in the definitely competitive category, we see how important a role the environment and recruiting can play (indeed, without stellar recruiting by the DSCC of candidates who didn't intially want to run, AK, NH, NM, and VA might have had different outcomes). Similarly, in 2004, Senators Chafee, Allen, and DeWine, and potentially Talent, would have at best been in the “potentially competitive” category. 

But it’s a double edged sword, and shows why you should ALWAYS recruit your best candidate to run. If Tim Roemer had run against Dick Lugar in 2006 – someone considered as unassailable at recruiting time as, well, Mike DeWine – he probably would have had at least a 50-50 chance at becoming a Senator. We just don’t know how the national environment will look two years from now, and that will greatly impact who is seen as vulnerable. The situation swung wildly from Democrats to Republicans to Democrats from 1992 to 1994 to 1996, and swung pretty decisively from 2004 to 2006. It isn’t impossible to imagine Bayh or Mikulski or even Obama’s replacement being vulnerable in 2008, provided we have the right recruits in place and are running in a favorable environment. 

It’s also worth noting that the famed midterm election tendency, which finds that the President’s party always loses seats in the midterm election, simply doesn’t hold as well in the Senate. While there are only three exceptions since the Civil War in the House, there are a number of exceptions in the Senate since direct election of Senators commenced in the early 1900s, including 1962, 1970, 1982, 1998, and 2002. Therefore, we probably shouldn’t expect the “midterm tendency” to bail Republicans out.

So with that said, the ratings are below the fold.

 Potentially Competitive R Seats

 Arizona (John McCain) – If popular Governor Janet Napolitano runs against McCain, she would make for a very competitive race, and indeed has led in some polling. If she waits until 2012 to challenge Jon Kyl, he probably cruises. Much will depend on how the Obama Administration pans out.

 Kansas (Brownback Retiring) – It’s hard to believe that Kansas is potentially competitive, given that the state has elected all of three Democrats in its history, and none since 1932. But the 800 pound gorilla in the room is popular Governor Kathleen Sebelius. If she can be persuaded to run – and if Obama doesn’t select her for Agriculture Secretary or some such – she’ll be difficult, though not impossible to beat. If she doesn’t run, this shouldn’t be particularly competitive. Congressman Jerry Moran is running on the Republican side.

 Iowa (Chuck Grassley) – Grassley is in his late 70s and may retire, at which point you’d have to like the Dems’ odds in a state that has been trending their way in recent elections. Grassley is something of an icon, sports a 63% approval rating, and would have to be the favorite if he runs for re-election.

 Missouri (Kit Bond) – Every six years the Democrats say that they will take out Kit Bond, and every six years he’s re-elected with a votes share somewhere in the low-to-mid 50s. Maybe lightning will strike this time, as Bond is below 45% in tests against various political figures. Then again, those figures are already known statewide (Dick Gephardt, Robin Carnahan), so if Bond were really destined to lose, you'd expect them to perform much better.  More importantly, none have declared.

 New Hampshire (Judd Gregg) – The temptation is to say “here we go again” after John Sununu lost, but Sununu lost to a figure with about as good a brand as there is in the Granite State. Obviously if popular Governor John Lynch runs this would be a real headache for Gregg, but other than Lynch, there isn’t anyone nearly as formidable as Shaheen.

 Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) – I guess if Governor Henry challenged Coburn it could be competitive, but in Obama’s worst state nationwide, I just think the odds against it are awfully high. That said, Henry’s approval rating is substantially above Coburn’s, and his term is up in 2010.

Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter) – To be honest, I just don’t see Chris Mathews posing that big of a threat to Senator Specter. If it were Minnesota, it would be a different story altogether. But we’ll see. Any number of young Democratic Congresscritters might be eying a promotion.

South Dakota (John Thune) – If Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin ran, it would at least be competitive. But word is she has her sights set on the Governor’s office.

 Likely Competitive R Seats

 Florida (Mel Martinez) – Given that Martinez is pulling in between 31 and 37 percent of the vote in recent ballot tests, it is difficult to see how he wins re-election in this purplish-red state. Two years is a long time, but we’ve got a lot of work to do here.

 Kentucky (Jim Bunning) – Bunning barely scraped by against unknown State Senator Dan Mongiardo in 2004. He’ll have a heckuva time holding this seat against likely opponent Ben Chandler in 2010, without Presidential coattails to support him. The 40-44 approval rating isn’t great news for him, but McConnell just won re-election with a similarly upside-down approval rating (but Bunning is no McConnell).

 North Carolina (Richard Burr) – After seeing what happened to Elizabeth Dole, who lost to a relative no-name by a margin much greater than Obama was carrying the state, one has to think Burr, who has generally sported similar approval ratings, is in real trouble. Expect Burr to spend a lot of time in this state, defending a seat that has switched between Republicans and Democrats in every election since 1974.

 Ohio (George Voinovich) – Two words: Mike DeWine. Voinovich’s approval rating is above 50%, which is better than DeWine can say, and he won’t have the Bush albatross to the same extent that DeWine had. But Ohio Democrats are on a roll, and Voinovich is having trouble getting above 40% in ballot tests.

 Not Competitive at this time R Seats

 Alabama (Richard Shelby) – unless the 74-year-old Shelby retires or commits an unforgivable gaffe (see Allen, George), its hard to see him going down to defeat.

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski) – If the last couple of cycles have shown anything, it is how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in Alaska. In 2004 and 2006 Democrats have had high hopes of stealing a statewide office from Republicans, only to have them dashed. Unless Murkowski becomes a convicted felon, she should be safe, and even then it appears it would be a 50-50 proposition.

 Georgia (Johnny Isakson) – Obviously anything can happen (see Chambliss, Saxby), but it is pretty difficult to imagine Isakson falling below 50%, especially without Obama at the top of the ballot. 

Idaho (Mike Crapo) – Assuming he avoids airport bathroom stalls, he should be handily re-elected. 

Louisiana (David Vitter) – Yes I know about the hooker. I also know about the 67% approval rating he was sporting in the wake of the scandal (and 55% in July of this year). Given the thin Democratic bench and, um, demographic shift, I don’t see this going anywhere.

 South Carolina (Jim DeMint) – Nothing for Democrats here.

 Utah (Bob Bennett) – Nah.

 Potentially Competitive D Seats

 Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) – Its pretty amazing that the state that was one of John McCain’s strongest states has elected all of one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, but for historic reasons there is no Republican Party here to speak of. Lincoln is one of those Senators who is probably rooting for Norm Coleman and Saxby Chambliss, because she doesn’t want to be tagged as the deciding vote for every piece of controversial legislation that goes through the Senate. Against a no-name opponent she garnered 56% of the vote in 2004; depending on how the Obama administration and Republican recruiting fare, it could get worse for her this year. But given that the GOP failed to mount a challenge to Senator Mark Pryor this year, this could go either way.

 California (Barbara Boxer) – Even though California is a very blue state, you have to consider any Senator with an approval rating below 50% to be potentially vulnerable. That’d be Barbara Boxer, a.k.a. Dianne Feinstein’s consistently less popular Senate counterpart. A lot will depend on recruiting here, but I wouldn't really hold my breath.

 Connecticut (Chris Dodd) – I struggled mightily with this one. After all, Connecticut is a solidly blue state, and the GOP’s best shot, Governor Jodi Rell, is likely not running. But it is hard to ignore the Countrywide scandal hovering over his head, and it is likewise hard to ignore his upside-down 43-46 approval rating. If the GOP can find a credible candidate – no small task – it could make a race out of this. 

Hawai’i (Daniel Inouye) – Inouye has been involved in Hawai’i politics since statehood; it is no exaggeration to say he is a legend. The only reason this is listed as potentially competitive is that he is 86 years old at this time, and Republicans have a potentially credible candidate in Governor Linda Lingle. It’s hard to see Lingle taking on Inouye – she’d likely wait until 2012 to take on the less popular Daniel Akaka (who will be 90), but if Inouye retires or if his health fails, she could make a race of this. 

North Dakota (Byron Dorgan) – John Hoeven, John Hoeven, John Hoeven. If Hoeven runs, this race would be something of the irresistible force hitting the immovable object. I can’t find a recent poll for Senator Dorgan, but last time it was measured (2006), it was 75-21 (and hovered around 70 for most of the year. But Hoeven’s is even higher, at 86-10, and he was last elected with a 74-24 advantage over his Democratic opponent. If we can convince Hoeven to run, this will be our best chance to defeat a Senate Democrat for the first time since 2004. No, that’s not a typo. Then we’d just have to get Ed Schaefer to run against Kent Conrad in 2012. 

Washington (Patty Murray) – The original “mom in tennis shoes” has been in the Senate for three unimpressive terms. With the Bush Administration behind us, it might be possible for a candidate like Dino Rossi or Mike McGavick to knock her off. Still, her approval rating (for now) is at 55%, so it would be no small feat. 

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) – This is another one I debated, but given that Feingold couldn’t get above 55% of the vote against a weak candidate in 2004, and sports a tepid 53-45 approval rating, I can't say that this is in the bag for him. Paul Ryan would be a nice recruit here. 

Likely Competitive D Seats

 Colorado (Ken Salazar) – While Colorado has lurched to the left of late, I believe that a large part of that is due to the state’s visceral reaction to the Bush Administration. Salazar would likely be vulnerable regardless of who was President, since the most recent Democratic polling has him under 50%, with an approval rating under 40% (and a similar disapproval rating). Liberals may primary him as well. Either way, this will likely have some degree of competitiveness, regardless of recruiting efforts. 

Nevada (Harry Reid) – Harry Reid dodged something of a bullet with Jon Porter’s defeat in 2010. Still, there are statewide Republicans who may challenge him, including Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki. Reid’s approval rating hasn’t been measured recently, but last time it was tested, it was a horrendous 32-51 split. As the face of Senate Democrats, he has a tight rope to walk in a state that has hewed close to the national average in recent elections.

 Not Competitive At This Time D Seats

 Delaware (Joe Biden’s Successor) – Delaware isn’t a particularly competitive state for Republicans, and they have a very, very thin bench here. It would take a recruiting coup and a major blunder by the appointee to make this competitive at this time.

 Illinois (Barack Obama’s Successor) – This is better for the GOP than Delaware, but not by a lot. The only difference is the GOP has some credible candidates, but unless Blagojevich picks himself and/or the Obama Administration tanks, neither of which is impossible, this is simply a very tough state.

 Indiana (Evan Bayh) – Again, being the deciding vote on cloture on a number of measures isn’t really what he wants, but it is hard to imagine him tanking so badly that he loses. Some people say that Bayh may retire but that seems extremely unlikely to me, as he’d have to get a real job.

 Maryland (Barb Mikulski) – Unless Gov. Ehrlich runs and the economy collapses (even more), it is just hard to see Mikulski retiring (although she is 74) or losing. She hasn’t fallen below 60% of the vote in any race since her unsuccessful Senate bid in 1974.

 New York (Chuck Schumer) – Senators with 60% approval ratings don’t lose unless they are in states with heavy bases for the other party. That ain’t New York.

 Oregon (Ron Wyden) – Maybe Wyden will retire, but the bench is thin and we just lost a strong Senate candidate to a fairly weak candidate. Wyden’s approval rating isn’t anything to write home about – about 54-34 – but it should do the trick.

 Vermont (Patrick Leahy) – It’s amazing to think that Patrick Leahy is only 70 years old, given that he’s been in the Senate since I was in diapers. It’s also amazing to think that his initial win was regarded as a fluke in a state that had never elected a Democrat to the Senate. Anyway, if Jim Douglas ran this seat might be competitive, but more likely it would end up the way it ended up in 1992, when Douglas lost to Leahy by ten points.