The Rising Republican Tide, Lifting All Boats -- Updated

Right after McCain's bounce -- which is now starting to look like a no-kidding bump -- started to become apparent, I made the following observation:

The really interesting results are going to come in polls for Senate and House races.  The main thing about the Republican convention and the Palin pick (and the unfair, unfounded attacks on her) is that the Republican party, for the first time in three years, is energized.  The importance of that can't be underestimated.  For Republicans running in Republican-leaning states or districts -- and that is a large majority of vulnerable Senate and House seats this term -- regular Republican turnout dedicated to electing a Republican ticket (as opposed to just stopping a Democratic President) could make a real difference.

We're starting to see some real evidence of this downticket effect.  There are four swing Governor's races:  Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Washington.  The former two are held by Republicans, the latter two by Democrats.  Republicans were consistently behind -- usually by relatively small margins -- in the last three states.  Since the convention, we've seen polls showing the Republican up 18 in Indiana, up one in Washington, and up eight in North Carolina.  I've already noted the good house polls that have come out.  Even in Senate races -- though I loathe campaign polls -- we've seen campaign polling showing Sununu within two in NH, something we haven't seen before.

But the biggest news, noted by Soren, is the Gallup poll showing Republicans up 5 among likely voters.  Yes, that is the same polling model showing McCain up 10.  But even if it is an outlier, even if it is skewed toward McCain, it is still the first poll in which Republicans have led since at least March of 2005.  They've tied in only 3 polls since then. (and in 2004, only eight polls even showed Republicans leading at all)

Soren's basic theory is, I think, the correct one.  There is historical precedent for this.  In 1988, Bush emerged from the summer doldrums after the convetion because he had used his convention to emerge from Reagan's shadow.  He was no longer Vice President Bush.  He was George H.W. Bush, PRESIDENTIAL nominee.  In 2000, Gore surged ahead after the convention for the same reason.  He was no longer Vice President Gore.  He was Al Gore, Democratic PRESIDENTIAL Nominee.  Even in 1976, the Republican Convention gave Ford a chance to introduce himself to the nation as the President, not the Veep.

For in-parties, the Convention is an opportunity for their candidate to step out of the shadow of the last term, and to promise a fresh start.  It gives them the opportunity to promise a break with the last four or eight years.  That's what I think is happening here, and why I think there might be a structural change occuring in the race, from the top of the ballot to the bottom.

The summer is a time for the bright shiny new toy.  Barack Obama's summer is over.

UPDATE:  Just noted the Rasmussen poll showing Udall up by 7 over Pearce in New Mexico.  That's the closest its ever been in any poll, and down from a 28-point deficit in June.