Home › Blogs › Sean Oxendine's blog ›

Watch Indiana

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 17:44

A bunch of people have asked me what to pay attention to as polls close.  My answer is simple:  Watch Indiana.  If the polls close there and McCain is winning by 4 or more points (roughly), we'll have some indicators that the Obama blowout scenario is unlikely to occur, and that the RNC has done a good job of matching Obama's GOTV effort, and has likely improved upon its outstanding 2004 performance.  If it looks like McCain is losing, then the worst case scenario -- Obama inching up toward 400 EVs -- is upon us.  If we're in a protracted count, then we're somewhere in the middle, which probably isn't good for McCain.  Probably not a blowout, but probably not a win.

The reason I say Indiana and not Virginia is that Virginia is an atypical state.  There aren't too many other states that have something akin to Fairfax County, and not with such high of a percentage of African American voters.  Virginia might give us some insight into North Carolina, but I think Indiana will give us a good look at what to expect in OH and PA (ie it will be somewhere to the right of those states).

And if Mark E. Souder is losing in IN-03, say hello to a really massive Democratic House majority.

UPDATE:  This isn't good.  Looking at the counties that are more-or-less in, McCain is running consistently about 10 points behind Bush's 2004 results.  Of course, running 11 points behind Bush statewide means McCain loses.  And this doesn't count any votes from Lake or Marion county.  I have a hard time seeing how McCain wins.

On the plus side, Mark Souder is running ahead of his 2006 turnout.  This isn't great news, but it is good.

UPDATE2:  Wow.  Virgil Goode looks like he might lose.  Not good(e).

0
Your rating: None

Comments

We win VA comfortably

Submitted by The Mad Irish Man on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 17:51.

IN is one to watch, for many of the sentiments you've stated.  VA however is OURS.  No doubt.

 

We?

Submitted by gabriel on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 01:07.

Who is we?

The GOP? I don't think so.

What I'll remember about this election

Submitted by gunthestops on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 18:32.

Is that the Republicans ran the most shameful and despicable campaign in recent history.  I believe when its all said and done, McCain will be a broken man--not because he lost the election but because he let a bunch of bozos lead him down the low road, he gave up his honor and dignity to become president--that I think will haunt him the rest of his days!!!!

 
How about that E. Dole, what a dirt bag!!!  

 

Florida?

Submitted by mlindroo on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 20:30.

Hi Sean,
What about Fla. ...? As of now, Barry is ahead by 0.25 million votes but I note the Florida Panhandle results are not in yet.

MARCU$

I'm in Indiana

Submitted by clam75 on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 00:05.

and the raw vote totals certainly tell me something.  McCain's down by 8200 votes with 97% of the precincts in.  Greg Zoeller (the GOP AG candidate) is beating his Dem opponent by 54,000 votes; Tony Bennet (the GOP candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction) is beating his Dem opponent by 62,000 votes.  Now, both Greg and Tony are great guys, but these numbers demonstrate to me that an awful lot of Hoosier Republicans scratched for Obama.  That hurts.

What I'll remember about this election is...

Submitted by Big Ben 4 liberty on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 01:10.

That MSM propaganda spin and bogus polls meant to manipulate public opinion were so effective for the left in getting their canddiate elected.  I had high hopes the voters would see through the fraud but apparently not.  The empty suit, affirmative action candidate will come to inspire their dreams with nice sounding but ultimately meaningless rhetoric full of totally useless platitudes.

Well they voted for their shit, they got their shit and now they can eat it.  Hopefully after a couple years of chocking on it, the majority of voters will start to come back to reality. 

But in order for that to happen of course, the GOP will have to punish and marginalize the RINOs, reject the siren song of bipartisanship (unless of course Obama genuinely tries to govern from the center in which case we can some support the iniatives he is actually right on, but so far I am under no such delusions), and begin returning back to a true reform-minded conservative agenda. If not they will be a minority party for years to come, and the country will suffer greatly because of it and deservedly so, but I'm not bitter. 

I would congratulate Obama on his victory but that would require me to overlook the cicumstances of his victory and thus I ccan't sincerely.  I will whatever happens next, it will interesting if not totally depressing four years.

Some cheese with that whine?

Submitted by gabriel on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 01:18.

If you guys are going to start blaming everyone but yourselves for this disaster it's going to take you a LOOOONG time to get back in power.

What can I say

Submitted by gunthestops on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 07:59.

BB, you are truly a Philistine!

Thank you

Submitted by Big Ben 4 liberty on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 09:01.

Coming from the likes of you, that truly is a compliment.

Honour and Pride

Submitted by wiradjuriwoman on Wed, 11/05/2008 - 01:43.

If you listened intently to what John McCain Said in his closing speech after the election ended..You would have some respect for the man and his party who gave all they could but lost with Dignity and Honour.

he asked for you the American people to accept the Voting Rights of the People who Elected the New President Elect, he asked you to accept the change and to allow the Republicans to Lose with the Dignity, Grace and Honour holding their heads High, they did their best but their best is all they could give.

Barack Obama is the President Elect and the Democrats Won with Dignity, Grace and Honour and they will work in a Bipartisin way with the Republicans to Serve the People of one United States under One Flag where Dignity Honour and Justice prevails above all.......

The World Waits For the United States to Speak in any manner or Fashion and although many of us in Australia and other parts of the world do dispute the fact the worlds greatest power is The USA, We must accept it.

Wake Up America as the world waits for the next move or word that your President Elect Makes or Speaks, whisper soflty all words of discontentment as some may take advantage of that discontentment and use it for their own benefit.

Guard your Country with your Heart and Soul by protecting your President Elect as the world watches and waits for coming of a new age through the decisons of the American people have just given a greater change than we will ever see again.