VIRGINIA LOOKING BIG

The latest electoral polling and posturing gives Republicans reason to be optimistic as well as reason to worry.

First, the reasons to be optimistic.

The electoral math, at this time, continues to favor John McCain. If the election were held today, McCain would almost certainly win. Obama continues to poll in the low to mid 40's and he lags the Democratic generic dramatically. Today's generic vote (Rasmussen Reports) shows the Democrats at +8. There would be every reason to believe that the Republicans are going to get mauled in the House and Senate. Obama, on the other hand, is at a -2 with a paltry 44% horserace number. The electoral math just doesn't seem to add up for him. The question is whether or not he will do damage to the undercard.

McCain needs 270 electoral votes to win. He is virtually assured of 189 Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. In those states, Obama's message of fascist liberal elitism, rabid, toxic racism and canary yellow national security cowardice, just isn't selling well.

In addition, McCain is much safer in the the critical swing states of Missouri and Florida then anyone had ever imagined he would be. This increases his total to 227- a mere 43 short of paydirt.

Crucial to knocking down that last 43 is to win at least one of the the 3 biggest battlegrounds of Michigan (17), Ohio (20) and Pennsylvania (21). Obama lost Ohio and Pennsylvania big during primary season because of blue collar white voters disgusted by his rabid racist elitism. Michigan, had it been officially contested, probably would have followed suit.

Winning all 3 would give McCain the White House with at least 285 electoral votes. Winning any 2 would mean an almost certain election for the Republican. Not winning any of the 3 would mean almost certain death.

Let's assume McCain wins the smallest of the 3- Michigan. Michigan's 17 electoral votes gets him to 244- 26 short.

Nevada likely gets him to 249 but to close the remaining gap, he will likely need Virginia. Virginia (13) hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964 and Republicans won it comfortably in both 2000 and 2004. Yet, changing demographics in the Old Dominion have put it in play.

Therein, lies the bad news. With Mark Warner on the ticket, speculation is swirling as to whether Democrats could take this state in a Presidential contest.

Assuming they could, McCain's path to the White House becomes much tougher-though still not impossible. Without Virginia's 13 votes, McCain would either have to win 2 of the big 3 battlegrounds (getting to 264 or 265) and retain Colorado (9) or Iowa (7) for the GOP. Odds are against him to do that.

So, it would all seem to come down to one State- Wisconsin (10).

The latest polling in Wisconsin shows McCain ahead by 4 points but I am sure he is not comfortable with his election hinging on this state. Democratic election day corruption in Wisconsin is legendary.

With Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire (4) leaning to the dems, and Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all at least in play for McCain, Virginia is looking like a must hold state for the GOP and a must get for dems. After victories in 2001, 2005 and 2006, Democrats are licking their chops in Virginia. They may be setting themselves up for a fall.

Obama's elitism doesn't sell well in Virginia and, despite an explosion of illegals (and other liberal trash) in Northern VA, the State is still Conservative. The winner of Virginia will almost certainly win the White House. Without Warner on the ticket, that is much easier for the GOP. However, Obama's weaknesses may be enough to even offset Obama's strengths in VA.

~Sonlit