Can McCain appeal to disaffected women?

Submitted by Soren Dayton on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 18:59

In a comment in response to Ruffini's post on Democratic polling, Tom Readmond says:

I don't have a client right now , but if I did, I'd be looking very hard at what I might do to attract angry women to the party, much as Nixon did with angry southerners in 1968.

Well, actually, I refer you to Janet Elder piece in the NYT from last year:

Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster whose firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is working for Senator John McCain, said, ''Right now all groups are a significant challenge for Republicans.'' ... Most of the names on Mr. Newhouse's list have little to do with gender, with the exception of ''Wal-Mart women.'' Those are voters who ''generally have lower incomes, are less educated, tend to be conservative and have been impacted by economic difficulties,'' he said.

Perhaps the McCain campaign is planning to reach out to these women? Polling indicates fertile ground. Read on.

From the Politico:

Forty-nine percent of white women view Obama unfavorably, while only 43 percent hold a favorable opinion. In February, 36 percent of these women viewed Obama unfavorably, while 56 percent had a positive perception of the likely Democratic nominee.

Over the same period, Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.

The author of the Politico piece, one David Paul Kuhn, has written a very interesting book about the gender gap being a structural problem for the Democratic Party. The book is titled The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic Dilemma.

I can't help but watch all the videos from the DNC's RBC meeting and think that there's an opening for the GOP.

Now, the general pushback from Democrats is that DNC and/or 527s, PACs, etc. will go up with ads saying that John McCain is pro-life. I suspect that this may resonate and bring some of the upscale Democrats back to Obama. I am not convinced that it will move downscale Democrats at all.

One of the most important things that the McCain campaign could do is wrap himself in high-level female surrogates like ... Carli Fiorina. Now is the time to strike with high-profile coalition events or something similar.

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Comments

How would he reach out?

Submitted by Jon Sandor on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 19:18.

The specific policies which would resonate with these "downscale Democrats" are not ones McCain is likely to go for. I'm thinking of trade and immigration, as well as global warming. O all of these McCain is taking the anti-populist position.

Unless he makes some silly gesture, which is what politics increasingly boils down to, actual policy being set in concrete.

McCain simply needs to pick

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 19:52.

McCain simply needs to pick up where Hillary left off, by running ads emphasizing that he's the one that can keep our kids safe, and undermining Barack's ability to do so. Security tends to play well with women. The red phone ad made a significant difference in Ohio and Texas.

As far as the less affluent women (Walmart women?) go, McCain can keep up with the gas tax holiday and other such gimmicks. Those should be pretty effective for the set that literally worries about how to keep food on the table.

McCain's Appeal to Women (a Woman's Perspective)

Submitted by sjreidhead on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 19:53.

I read a good blog post yesterday that the era of the "metrosexual" is over. "Real men" are now all the rage. Somewhere in the post I read that John McCain was an example of the latter and Barack Obama the former.

As a woman actively interested in the other gender, I am sick and tired of sensitive, prissed-up, smelly (perfume), manicured men. I've started noticing, recently, that there is this sea change coming.

Is John McCain responsible for it? I'm not quite sure, but he may have helped give the prissy men the boot. I don't mind admitting I've been what I consider a "Republican" version of a sorta conservative feminist most of my life. There is this John Wayne allure of the "real man" that is rather attractive.

Anyone who says they do not react to people on some basic, primitive level is just plain lying to themselves. Speaking as a woman, men like Barack Obama (race has nothing to do with it) repulse me. I put him in the same league as Tom Cruise. There is this aura that they don't have what it takes to do the real "man" things in life.

John McCain could appeal to some of these women. I think one of the other things is how he treats women around him. If we see him treating his wife, daughters, aids, with respect, consideration, and as equals. I've talked to a number of women, liberal and conservative, many of whom have noticed that Barack Obama is not "respectful" of women. It's rather the exact opposite of Bill Clinton who may have a serious problem with women, but he always appears to "like women".

It could make a difference.

This would make a good Pink Flamingo rant!

SJR The Pink Flamingo

John McCain could appeal to

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 20:11.

John McCain could appeal to some of these women. I think one of the other things is how he treats women around him. If we see him treating his wife, daughters, aids, with respect, consideration, and as equals. I've talked to a number of women, liberal and conservative, many of whom have noticed that Barack Obama is not "respectful" of women.

SJR, as a fellow woman, I have to ask if you're serious... Perhaps you haven't read as much on McCain as you have on Obama, but McCain is rumored to be almost misogynist in his treatment of women. His own son doesn't support him because of McCain's treatment of his first wife, including a string of affairs and the beginning of his courtship of Cindy while still married to Carol. And some of the comments he's made about women could really hurt him. Obama, while somewhat cold, aloof and perhaps even dismissive, AFAIK has never used profanity or vulgarity to refer to women.

I don't know if one's treatment of women is a good measure of presidential quality, I just thought I should point out that it's not as simple as you make it sound.

The answer is security and performance

Submitted by Ironman on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 20:20.

Barack Obama conveys a far too esoteric image for working women. "Change " is really a yuppie concept...it does not put gas in the tank, pay the mortgage, or make sure the perverts that prey on children get locked up.

McCain needs to convey the message that he is reliable, tough and realistic. The incumbent has lost the confidence of voters based on goals which proved unattainable within his time horizon and failing to address issues relevant to working people. McCain and his team need to play good "small ball" and make clear they have attainable goals which will be delivered on.

We needs to think locally here. Programs on crime and neighborhood schools may sound vaguely Clintonian, but this is what drew moderate women to the Clinton ranks and I have no reason to believe these issues have lost salience. And Obama's lefty background impedes his effort to go down this road.

On a related note, I suggested Russel Honore as a surprise VP pick and someone else suggested some obscure woman academic. The image of rescuing women and children from a disaster is far more powerful than yet another talking head. The other party has words locked up. We need to sell deeds

I Think

Submitted by Whitehorse on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 21:07.

McCain can appeal to women on the security aspects as well as being a "real man." I'm not sold that being "Pro-Life" is really a detriment with women. Many women I know, even democrats, are pro life to a large degree. I also beleive that many women will respond to the message of keping more money for the family budget.

Deeds are very important, which may actually be somewhat a detriment considered the poor performance of congress under Republican leadership in the run-up to 2006. If I were advising McCain, I'd say to push the national security and conservative economic issues.

I fully agree. Security will

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 21:19.

I fully agree. Security will be his best angle. He's already a fairly moderate pro-lifer, and for many women if it comes down to moderate pro-lifer or someone who voted against the born alive act, they're going to go with the pro-lifer.

The "real man" thing has

Submitted by Tom Readmond on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 22:09.

The "real man" thing has actually been talked about on and off since 9/11. I recall reading an article a few months after that hypothesized that the popularity of police and fire fighters had seeped into the public's consciousness about what a man should be and caused a shift back from the 90's-era love of the metrosexual.

McCain's history with his first wife could be a detriment with women, but let's think a little more broadly, in terms of how we might realign some women into the GOP column on a more long-term basis. It might be worth doing some polling of women who are self-described independents or even Democrats, and looking at 1) if they are likely to leave the Democratic party following Hillary's defeat, and 2) under what circumstances they would be willing to look at Republican candidates.

I do not believe Republicans should be softening or changing conservative positions to appeal to new voters, but I think it worth looking into where conservative principles might be attractive to these traditionally non-Republican women, and how those principles might be framed to maximize that appeal.

I don't see this in terms of how we can get to the soccer moms to win the 2008 election, but rather how we can seize upon the disillusionment of some traditionally Democratic voters and bring them into our column for the long haul. I also think we should be thinking beyond the presidential and going down into congressional and even state legislative races.

leaving the party

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 22:30.

Interesting you mention that, Tom, I was just reading on another site today that there's a plan in the works for Hillary supporters to phone into their local party offices and ask to have their names removed from the roster as soon as she concedes.

Now the question is, as you already suggested, whether this immediate "take me off the rolls!!!" could be the beginning of a long term relationship with the GOP. The Republican Party would certainly do well to try to make it as much. Women already respond well to the Republican party's current emphases on security and family values. A proactive Republican leadership should already be looking at ways to capitalize on and broaden that appeal to this displaced voting bloc.

Couldn't agree more

Submitted by Walt Gilbert on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 22:38.

The single most important thing the GOP can do to appeal to disaffected women at this point is to recognize the specific way in which the challenges facing the nation directly impact the lives of women -- particularly working women.

For instance, energy policy should be directly tied to the difficulty that working women have in getting their children to daycare, school, extracurricular activities, etc. while also being able to get themselves back and forth to work. The key point, I believe, will be in emphasizing the fact that technological advances have made it possible to obtain our domestic sources of energy in a clean, environmentally friendly way. I don't have any hard data, so I'm going strictly from memory here, but unless I'm mistaken, women tend to be more concerned with environmental issues, generally speaking, than men do, and it's out of concern for the health of their children. So, it seems that any talk of domestic energy sources would have to be framed in a way that doesn't raise that concern.

Also, I think it would help to frame it in such a way that emphasizes the fact that reliance on foreign sources of oil serves to further enrich people who threaten our security -- the same people who subjugate their women and endoctrinate their children into radical Islam so that they can go on to pose a threat to our security. Point out that it's the same ideology that spurs on people who kill their own daughters out of a deeply pathological sense of "honor", who perform genital mutilation on little girls, and who murdered a revered former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan because she threatened to bring modernity to her home land.

In doing this, I think it would be important to point out that, while drilling our oil won't necessarily stop all of this from happening, we could at least take comfort in knowing that we're taking steps to minimize the monetary support that these people currently enjoy and use to fund the next generation of islamic fundamentalists who seek to impose their twisted ideals on the world.

Disaffected Women will vote for McCain

Submitted by texicali on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 22:28.

Much of it will be a backlash vote as they are furious at the way the Dem party has treated them as voters and the way their favored candidate has been treated....it's not so much about what message the McCain camp needs to put out there to attract them....they are already angry and will vote for him....there are several blogs already up and running by Hillary supporters who are pushing others to vote for McCain...bringing them into the McCain blogsphere should be a high priority....the "wal-mart" women voters can be appealed to with ecoomic messaging that should be delivered by a woman tied to McCain that's believable in that role...Carly would be a good choice for the disenfranchised Hillary voters but not the "wal-mart" women voters....the GOP and the McCain campaign would be foolish not to take advantage of this on all fronts.....I got several earfuls of feedback this weekend from Dems who will not vote for Obama for any reason as both men and women aren't happy with him...as far as the anti McCain ads go, it won't matter to the Dems who are already saying publicly they won't vote for Obama if anything it will harden their resolve....

I can't help but wonder how far down the ticket this anti Obama/Dem anger will flow....will they just not vote Dem at the top of the ticket or will they totally rebel and not vote for any Dem down ticket say in the Congressional/Senate races?

That's what it's starting to

Submitted by Lisa on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 22:31.

That's what it's starting to sound like to me...that they're willing to punish their party all the way down the ticket.

Janice Rodgers-Brown

Submitted by ShrikeDeCil on Mon, 06/02/2008 - 23:04.

Well respected in California, clearly a thinker as opposed to an emoter, someone the way-right-of-McCain folks would accept, someone the Hillary-got-shafted folks might accept.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janice_Rogers_Brown

I'm still of the mind that a

Submitted by Tom Readmond on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 01:00.

I'm still of the mind that a VP candidate has to have some level of elected experience, but that doesn't mean we can't think outside the box. What about House members? Mary Bono? I'd say Michelle Bachman but I can already visualize the ad where they show that video of her fawning over GWB with her arm around him for an inappropriately long period of time.

Mary Bono might have trouble. . .

Submitted by Walt Gilbert on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 01:38.

. . .with the fact that she apparently took some Scientology classes way, way back in the late 80's. Hard to say how that would play out, really. I know that she's disavowed it completely since then -- and apparently a lot more quickly than Obama dealt with his religious issues -- but, I can't help thinking that it could still be harmful, particularly among social conservatives. Then again, it could cause a big yawn.

Jo Ann Emerson might be a good choice, though. Coming from the swing state of MO, being a solid conservative, hailing from Rush Limbaugh's hometown district, and being pretty experienced to boot.

There could be some conflict with McCain with regard to farm subsidies, though. I'm spotty on her overall legislative record, so I'd have to do some digging.

On a side note -- one thing McCain could do to help shore up support in Missouri is to spend some time watching the Cardinals this summer and playing up the Anhueser-Busch connection. Spending some time in the booth with Mike Shannon and the crew would pay dividends, I think. The Cards have a HUGE market, stretching well into the deep south. And, the fact that Obama is from Chicago, home of the much-loathed Cubs, is a plus.

Most of the names on Mr.

Submitted by Lynn on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 10:05.

Most of the names on Mr. Newhouse's list have little to do with gender, with the exception of ''Wal-Mart women.'' Those are voters who ''generally have lower incomes, are less educated, tend to be conservative and have been impacted by economic difficulties,'' he said.

It seems to me there are many ways that McCain can reach out to low income Hillary voters, both male and female. Lots of good ideas already posted.

One thing, the derogatory term "Walmart women" should disappear and never pass the lips of a Republican again.

These women may not be highly educated or high income but they are street smart and tough as nails. They won't appreciate being talked down to.

As far as McCain's situation with his first wife, I don't think it matters now. It was a unique situation of a POW coming home from a situation so horrible that it took a long time for him to stabilize. It's not as though he's had several wives. He's been with Cindy for what, 24 years? I think so.

I agree with Lynn's remark

Submitted by Lisa on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 10:18.

I agree with Lynn's remark about the label "walmart women." It's demeaning at best and I hope it doesn't enter widespread use among the punditry. Nothing good can come of it.

Well how about "Gretchen Wilson voters"

Submitted by Ironman on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 19:18.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Wilson

she sings about shopping at WalMart, doesn't she?

Harrop on Democratic women voting for McCai

Submitted by Tom Readmond on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 10:35.

What a coincidence! Froma Harrop has an article today on disaffected women who feel they've been demeaned by the Obama camp and the liberal blogosphere.

A new Pew Research Center poll points to a surging tide of fury, especially among white women. As recently as April, this group preferred Obama over the presumptive Republican John McCain by three percentage points. By May, McCain enjoyed an eight-point lead among white women

What's dangerous for the Democratic Party is that, for many women, the eye of the storm has moved beyond Hillary or anything she does at this point. The offense has turned personal

They are now in their own orbit, having abandoned popular Democratic Websites that reveled in crude anti-Hillary outpourings -- and established new ones on which they trade stories of the Obama people's nastiness.

Read the full article here

Interesting. I wonder if

Submitted by Lisa on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 10:44.

Interesting. I wonder if McCain has people keeping up with these online developments. (You'd think that would be a given, but with McCain's campaign I can't tell.)

She's scheduled to "acknowledge" that Obama has passed the delegate threshold tonight. I wonder how the women will take that.

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