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How did Obama spend $57m on this month? Can he sustain it?

Submitted by Soren Dayton on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 16:27
in

At the end of June, Barack Obama had $72m CoH. At the end of July, he had $65.8m CoH, after raising $51m.

That means he spent $57m. Can he sustain this level of fundraising? And how do you spend that much money in a month?

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Comments

Running in 57 States is Expensive

Submitted by Jeff Roberts on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 17:52.

Obama has so much money, he's wasting it in states that aren't even on the table.  It's a little like in 2000 when Bush had so much money, he ran ads in California.  Despite Bush outspending Gore, California went Gore by double-digits.

McCain needs to ignore Obama's strategy, and focus on the states that will  actually determine this election, like Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico,Virginia and Florida (though it looks safe for now), and to a lesser extent Colorado and New Hampshire.

If Obama ends up winning states like Indiana, it's over no matter what.  States don't independently make radical swings from the rest of the electorate, even if massive amounts of money are being spent there.

Even though more funds would be great forMcCain, I don't see this election being won on money.  McCain will have enough to make his case in the true swing states.  I much more worried about what the lack of funds represents, very little enthusiasm on our side.

Newly Registered Voters

Submitted by carltonyates on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 18:22.

should be the metric by which to measure the burn rate. If he get's the much anticipated bump in newly registered voters then it will be money well spent.  Good ground operations aren't cheap. Additionally, Obama's state level and hyper-local organizational build out is really to gain strategic advantage for  2010 redistricting. State Democratic majorities are key to keeping Obama's momentum strong. He may have learned a few lessons from Tom DeLay.

Canvassing Operations ... and Rick Warren or Olympics?

Submitted by Matt Moon on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 19:03.

Obama just opened another office in Alaska, making it 5 offices total in the state. A friend of mine made an anonymous call to one of the offices to find out what volunteers could do ... canvass. Yes, literally go door to door to conduct voter ID. Amazing.

The real question: which one should I watch live ... the Olympics or the Rick Warren forums?

In Alaska?

Submitted by Ironman on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 19:14.

Seems like the doors are going to be very far apart.

This reminds me of a House candidate in CT who ran twice and tried to do lots of doors in towns where he ran far behind the gubernatorial candidate the first time. The fact they were in towns with large lot zoning evidently did not immediately register on his campaign manager (who went on to greater success in his home state). Needless to say, much candidate time was wasted chasing relatively few votes in thinly populated areas. 

We know a few things from the Obamalanche. First, we will have a trilliion dollar deficit if he is elected since he is runnng in deficit mode three months out. Second, that no one on their campaign can set a priority and they think they can do everything.  Evidently the fate of dot coms with high burn rates  was lost on them.

It's an old adage that half of all ad dollars are wasted. We can be absolutely sure that will be true for Obama.     

"He may have learned a few lessons from Tom DeLay"

Submitted by Ironman on Sat, 08/16/2008 - 18:48.

Like raising soft money from special interests?

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-na-demfunds16-2008aug16,0,5272946.story

there's another plausible explanation for the massive burn rate

Submitted by Ironman on Sun, 08/17/2008 - 23:04.

heavily on building local party appratus in red states: an insurance policy against possible defeat so as to lock in support for a re-run in '12.

Notice Obama's spending in pro-Hillary states seems less excessive. But he is shooting the moon in places like Alaska, NC, Georgia and the Dakotas which clearly aren't part of his most likely 300-320 EV's.

I think the point here is to make sure the locals are so inbedded with Obamatons and so indebted to his campaign that it will be impossible for another candidate to gain significant delegate support in '12. Much of his delegate majority was won in such places and if they are tied down this year he has a leg up next time. 

This may also explain the Corleone approach to placating the Clintons at the convention "Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer".   A great springboard for a Hillary '12 run would be "I offered my help,  but Obama's camp was too proud and dumb to accept it". Obama wisely wants to avoid that pitch.