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If Michigan is tied, then John McCain will be President

by Soren Dayton | July 21, 2008 at 6:31 PM
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Jonathan Martin gets a new Michigan poll via the Detroit News:

New poll numbers out from the Detroit News have the Michigan race between Obama and McCain very competitive with a chunk of voters still on the sidelines.

Obama is up 43-41, but 12% of voters said they're undecided.

My gut is that if undecideds are that high, John McCain is President.  Michigan is a lot of electoral votes and we saw throughout the primaries that Obama never really closed well. The undecideds always broke hard against him.

Obviously, it is far too early to be making statements like this,  but this and this New Hampshire poll suggest that McCain is very much in this.

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Comments

I have to agree. . .

Submitted by Walt Gilbert on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 19:13.

. . .albeit without a huge degree of confidence.  For all the talk of the McCain campaign being so terribly run, he has consistently been within 1-2 points in Rassmussen's daily track of likely voters, and within the margin of error in Gallup's daily track of registered voters.

Granted, there have been unforced errors, but the fact of the matter is that, if his campaign were running as abysmally as McCain's critics are saying, he'd be getting trounced.

MI is Obama +6.3 right now

Submitted by Adam C on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 20:18.

This early, I refuse to look at one poll if we have several from different pollsters.  Here is the RCP average and the polls that are currently used it in it:
 

RCP Average 06/17 - 07/16 -- 47.3 41.0 Obama +6.3
EPIC-MRA 07/13 - 07/16 600 LV 43 41 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen 07/10 - 07/10 500 LV 50 42 Obama +8.0
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 06/17 - 06/24 1411 LV 48 42 Obama +6.0
PPP (D) 06/21 - 06/22 571 LV 48 39 Obama +9.0

 

If McCain were down 2 right now, that would be great news because he's down 4-5 nationally.  Thus if he got to 50-50 nationally, he'd win MI.  Put simply, he'd be running ahead in MI of his national numbers.  But using the average, he is losing by 6 and losing nationally by 5.  That's running one point behind his national average, which is still better than Bush-Kerry where Bush ran 6 points behind his average.

 

Of course, the hard part is still ensuring that nationally he runs 50-50 or better.  The rest seems to be set to fall into place if that happens.  The chance of him winning over half of the vote is about 37%.

You're Right

Submitted by idahoconservative on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 01:44.

Thanks for posting the RCP numbers. Also, we have to remember that usually undecideds break against the incumbent party.

The Real Story is the Undecideds

Submitted by Freedoms Truth on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 00:04.

That's a huge undecided number. People want change, and they may have heard enough about Obama to have doubts about him.

The lesson? The campaign WILL matter, hugely, in this election. Far more than in 2004 where is was a battle for inches.  I am hopeful based on these polls not because they are close but because we have yet to see or hear of Obama above 50% in any real poll. McCain could win by 10 or lose by 5 from here.

 

 

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