It's not the money; it's the bodies

This weekend, I heard a presentation from a Republican operative and strategist who claimed that to be competitive in the 2012 Presidential race, the GOP candidate will need to raise $1 billion. I suspect that that number is a touch high, but it is not an unreasonable assumption. Let's run some numbers on that.

If you assume that the donors all came from maxed out donors and that the new limit is $2,500, that would mean that the candidate would need to find 200,000 donors. More likely, the average donation size would be much smaller and the number of donors much larger. Barack Obama had over 3.1 million donors by October, averaging about $200/donor.

Consultants, who get paid by campaigns, tend to focus on the dollars. But that's not what we should be focusing on when we look at the Obama campaign. We should be looking at the numbers of bodies. It is the size and scope of Obama's grassroots organization that is really the phenomonal innovation that could transform our politics. That, not the money, is what we need to figure out how to match.

Let's put it slightly differently. Obama got about 3m donors. He got about 6m cell phone numbers. And about 10m on his email list. Turning that around, about 1 in 3 of the people who signed up to his email list gave him money. That's earth-shattering.

I wrote a piece for Pajama's Media on technology in the 2008 race. The key point about the campaign was its decision to put the organizational focus on its grassroots:

In the end, the Obama campaign’s various technologies for fundraising, GOTV, and communications were side shows. They all derived from a much more fundamental innovation. Rolling Stone described the most important insight of the Obama campaign from one of their trainers: “We decided that we didn’t want to train volunteers. We want to train organizers — folks who can fend for themselves.”...

You can make the fundraisers a little more efficient. You can make the GOTV more efficient. You can have a better message and get it out better. These are linear improvements. But political organizations grow exponentially when you improve the organizers. That’s what the Obama campaign did. Everything was focused on making the organizer better.

In the end, either Obama's organization will be a one-off, which I wouldn't count on, or conservatives and/or Republicans are going to have to learn to match that level of organizing. But just as Obama's organization has partially transformed the Democratic Party and Dean's organization definititely did, the Republican Party will probably be transformed by a shift to a focus on grassroots. Some thoughts on how:

  1. The power of the donor class will be signficantly reduced as it shifts to the grassroots.
  2. This party would likely involve an overthrow of the current party leadership. And I don't necessarily mean at the RNC, but down at the county party level.
  3. A party with that level of grassroots activity and energy might be more ideologically broadly-based than our current party.

That would be a fundamentally different Republican Party, and one that is focused on the voters and the activists and the donors rather than the intrigue of Washington, which has been so much the focus of the party.

The third point about a somewhat different ideological composition could be important, and the Republican primary might even provide a guide. John McCain won his primary based on winning rank-and-file Republicans who were not part of the party apparatus. He campaigned to these people. In March of 2007, I was in New Hampshire on the Straight Talk Express, and McCain was speaking at veterans halls to whoever would come. Mitt Romney was speaking that same day to Lincoln Day dinners. McCain probably wasn't even invited to those dinners.

At the same time, at some state and local conventions the local parties only maintained control under the attack by Ron Paul supporters by cheating them out of their delegate spots. A more vibrant party could have handled -- and perhaps beaten -- new entrants into the process. A more vibrant party could have built a coalition with those people rather than driven them away. Healthy political parties add people because they help them win. Unhealthy ones drive people away.

So in the end, I am somewhat bored with an ideological debate about the future of the party. The real change will be if people are willing to empower a new grassroots of this party and give up power to it. If we don't it's over. If we do, there could be tremendous opportunities that start to address some of the weaknesses of our party.

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)

Comments

Excellent post, Soren

I think you are exactly right.

I am somewhat bored with an ideological debate about the future of the party. The real change will be if people are willing to empower a new grassroots of this party and give up power to it.

I think the ideological debate will continue because that is what we know how to do. The prerequisite to grassroots power is organizing as your quotes about the Obama campaign make clear. Most likely we will see it first in the hinterlands as local and state campaigns that are "not done the usual way".

Tangentially, don't expect anyone to give up power to the grassroots voluntarily. First, people rarely just give up power, and second, the grassroots will have to be ready to receive power in that scenario and the only way for the grassroots to be ready to receive power is for them to have already taken at least some of it.

Thanks for the great commentary.

All true

We will need to take it.

It's not the money; it's the guy

> The real change will be if people are willing to empower a new grassroots of this party and give up power to it

You don't get Obama's level of donations without charisma. That's what's missing from the Republican party right now, and that's what you'll need if you want to have a chance in 2012 and 2016. Where's the RNC's version of JFK?

Charisma, yes, but help from the Republican campaign as well

I can give you a bit of a view from inside the Obama campaign, and it was more than the sum of it's parts. The design, from the web based activation level, to the local campaign offices, was precisely designed to bring people into the activity level, and give them easy tools to become active. The campaign also did not rely on any existing party infrastructure. the Obama campaign office may have coordinated, cooperated, and had a generally positive relationship with existing party infrastructure, but they operated completely independently. This makes real the statement above about the grassroots changing the party, as opposed to party changing itself. The Obama campaign did this pretty much without the Democratic Party, and far from being beholden to the party, the party is now beholden to Obama.

I also wanted to pointed out something about negative campaigning that happened among the e-mail listers that I know, and this is borne out by the campaign contributions and the dates they spiked. We all know that negative campaigning works, but I think there is a new paradigm. When the McCain campaign would put out a particularly egregious ad, or Sarah Palin would make a particularly false or misleading statement about Obama, the Obama campaign would immediately send out an e-mail, and it worked brilliantly. When Obama supporters were most incensed about the tactics of the Republicans, they would be given an immediate opportunity to take some action, in the form of donations (or volunteering, or both). So the effect of negative campaigning may have hurt Obama somewhat, but also infused his campaign with cash. When you compare the two campaigns, we all know that Obama actually put a greater number of negative ads on the air, but they were kept fairly tame, preventing very harsh cashbacklash (my new term) and there was no place for upset McCain supporters to really go with this. I was on the McCain e-mail list, and from a "call to action" perspective, including timing to specific events, the whole thing paled in comparison.

No one likes negative campaigns, but since they worked so well, no one could find any way to get away from them. In the future, there is going to have to be a calculation of how much cash you'll be giving your opponent when you go particularly negative. And swing voters seem to be driven away by exceedingly harsh negative ads.

The only problem with the whole of this discussion is that it really does not empower the grassroots, it empowers the man (or woman) they get behind. Whatever ideas people had about Obama, he's going to do what he is going to do, and it's not a question of whether he meets the ideological expectations of the grassroots, only that he is successful or unssuccessful. If he is considered successful and is 180 degrees from some of his supporters, they won't abandon him, and if he fails, it won't matter if he did exactly what they wanted and expected, they will still abandon him... at least enough to make him lose in 4 years.

By the same token, the best aspect of this kind of campaign, is that using this method really does allow a new President freedom from the kind of quid-pro-quo that a reliance on large donors, bundlers, and PACs place on a new President.

All that said, I don't think Republicans can do it. The activist base of the Republican party is primarily the SoCons, and I've  been subject to their style of campaigning, and while effective at efforts to GOTV for the base, they are not terribly good at working the middle. In my case, one McCain volunteer tried to remind me that Obama is pro-abortion, and I mentioned that while I abhor the practice, I can't bring myself to support making my opinion on the issue into federal law. At which point the tent got very, very, small and volunteer basically said that if I don't support McCain, I am supporting murder. I told him that was a great way of putting it, and that he should say that to every swing voter he can find. At least until one of them knocks his teeth out.  I know there are intolerant lefties out there as well, but I think it's a much bigger problem for righties.

 

I think an Ugly, uncharismatic....

...person could have great success in 2012 and do it with little money. Even much less than what McCain had available.    "Tangentially" speaking.  Certainly they'd have to go off on a tangent, for sure.  Detaching their campaign from the traditional/conventional "GOP Pack".  

And how would they do that?   Speak raw, bold truth.  No matter if it ruffles  the feathers of the  hypersensitive left.   So what is the unlearned lesson of 11/7/06 and 11/4/08?  It has nothing to do w/a fabricated charisma or money or grassroots volunteerism.  Its the content of the message.  The candidate must completely understand and  truly believe what  she/he is saying and follow through with passion.  And no apologies. 

I, too, am getting bored with the discussion, Soren.  DD

If i got you right you're

If i got you right you're saying we need someone who is an actual straight talker.  Not someone just acting the part.  I completely agree.

The only problem with this is that Repubs always start out at a disadvantage in every election.  The youth voters are systematically brainwashed from a young age, soon to be 3 if Obama gets his way, and the media is so unbelievably biased its a wonder that a Republican ever wins an election.

Thats it, Mac...

...they start out at a disadvantage because they always try to run the traditional/conventional GOP campaign, in my view.  Which is rigged against real leaders.  Rigged by the GOP Hierarchy, the dem's and the msm.  We need some candidates to break away from this "trap" and run a renegade campaign of sorts.  As Republicans but detached.  DD

Asked and answered...

"the media is so unbelievably biased its a wonder that a Republican ever wins an election."

And yet, Republicans DO win elections, and they win because although the media is biased, it is not partisan. I say this because the media always treats one side more favorably than the other, but it's Republicans who get favor as often as Democrats.

The biased media meme is a campaign tactic, it's not meant to be believed by serious trying to address serious policy and messaging issues, because it's not true.

Did you know that GWB has TWICE the number of favorable stories that Al Gore had in the lead up to 2000 election? It was media bias, but again, not partisan media bias, because the same media gave Obama far fewer negative stories than McCain in this election cycle.

Some times the narrative just runs against your guy, but quit whining.

media is quite biased ... but they are biased in their own

interests.

The media corps wanted Mccain, because they fear the fairness doctrine (and why are y'all carrying big business' water? didn't you learn your lesson on immigration??)

The media personalities wanted McCain, because Obama was successful at shutting them out (look at the fuss over Clinton right now. 10 bucks says she's not Sec of State).

(and on the other side of the fence, the media really really didn't want Ron Paul  -- neither did Wall Street)