Key 2008 House races

Today, one of the leading Republicans expected to challenge Don Taxyou, I mean Cazayoux, Chas Roemer (son of former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer) passed on the race.

The two likely Republican candidates will be Laurinda Calogone (the NRCC favorite) and Woody Jenkins (the favorite of social conservatives). If this holds, the Democrats will likely retain the seat because both are weak candidates.

For what it's worth, the latest polling has Carol Shea-Porter down against both Republicans. It's very early, but it's also worth noting that absolutely no one appears to be campaigning up here at the moment on the Republican side.

Rematch of Melissa Hart v. Jason Altmire

Also, what about Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal in CA-11?

What are people's thoughts about rematches?  i.e. Jim Ryun in KS-2, and Melissa Hart in PA-4.  Is it good to run the same candidate again after they lost in a previous cycle?  Are they stronger or weaker than a different challenger?

Dean Scontras for Congress - 1st District Maine......PRIMARY IS ONLY 12 DAYS AWAY!

[url]www.teamdean08.com[/url]

May 14, 2008 - National Right To Life Endorses Scontras for Congress!

Acknowledging Clear Differences in the Two Candidates' Positions, Flagship Pro-Life Group Issues Rare Endorsement in Republican Primary Election

PORTLAND - The National Right to Life Political Action Committee announced today their endorsement of 1st District Republican Congressional Candidate Dean Scontras. Given the strong support for Life among Maine's Republican Primary electorate, the endorsement gives Scontras significant momentum during the final weeks of the campaign. National Right to Life has more than 25,000 members in Maine's 1st Congressional District.

"This endorsement reflects your commitment to renewing a culture of life, not only in Maine, but throughout the nation," National Right to Life Executive Director David O'Steen told Scontras. "We look forward to working with you in Congress to restore legal protection for innocent life. Your willingness to take up the fight for life along the campaign trail and in the U.S. Congress makes us proud to endorse you."

also.....

Concerned Women Political Action Committee Endorses Pro-Family Scontras for Congress

Conservative Women's Organization Cites Clear Differences Between Scontras and His Republican Primary Opponent

PORTLAND, Maine- 1st District Republican Congressional Candidate Dean Scontras earned a national endorsement today from the Concerned Women Political Action Committee. Scontras' endorsement comes as a result of a strong performance at last night's Values Voters Forum held in Portland at the University of New England.

CWPAC endorsed Scontras in the June 10th Republican Primary election over Charles Summers where Values Voters will make up a significant portion of the electorate. Executive Director Mike Mears said the choice was an "obvious one".

"This was an obvious endorsement," said Mears. "Scontras is the only candidate in this race who will stand up for the unborn in Congress. If you are a values voter - Scontras is the clear choice."

"I am humbled by this show of support," said Scontras. "I pledge to work with Concerned Women of America to help them to have a significant, positive impact in Maine, Washington, D.C., and the nation and to ensure a pro-family future for our children and grandchildren."

CWPAC is affiliated with Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee, which is also affiliated with Concerned Women for America, the nation's largest public policy women's organization with more than 500,000 grassroots members nationwide.

This endorsement comes a week after the Women for Scontras coalition, led by Representative Kathy Chase (R-Wells) announced the support of more than 100 Republican women for Dean's campaign

NY 20, Kirsten Gillibrand is very very beatable. Her victory last time was due to terrible staffing by sweeney and the fact that she had the entire press and political operation of new york democrats, many of whom are leading their presidential campaigns now-wolfson, ect in addition to spitzer and a beaten down state gop there that is in the gutter.

IL-10, Mark Kirk is probably, politically speaking the shrewdest and strongest politician in the House Republican conference right now. While John Bonheaded Boehner, this Cole dude, Hastert, and other idiots continue to lose easy GOP seats, Kirk has raised 3 million and a 30 point lead over a challenger who has run hard at him for the last 3 years and raised nearly as much money.

Reread that again, in an area we should be getting crushed, there is a Republican kicking a democrat hard in the teeth. 

Oh and that happens to be in a deep blue state that happens to have a democratic presidential nominee named Obama. He, like Shays, 2 years ago, has everything going against him and yet is still standing. 

Meanwhile all the idiots we have running things in d.c. can't figure out a way to get back the 65 seats that voted for Bush last term, despite Obama's super liberal agenda.

The DCCC has a bead on all our bad actors and Sweeney was one of them.  They made  sure Gillibrand was well funded and probably stoked the Times Union to sift through Sweeney's dirty laundry.

Now we can cry about the unfairness of it all or realize the days of carrying "good ol boys" with personal baggage are over. Had Fossella not completely immolated himself this spring, be sure the national Dems would have lit the torch after Labor Day ala Foley, Weldon et al.  And I am not at all sure we've fully cleaned out the stable.

We need to replace damaged incumbents on the fly and on our own initiaitve or seats like NY 20 will be lost until the Dem incumbent does something egregiously foolish.   

Gillibrand is vulnerable, but Treadwell may not be the candidate to knock here out.  Now, if the GOP could get John Faso to run, he'd whallop her by a wide margin.  The biggest challenge the GOP faces in the district is voter apathy, which ultimately sunk Sweeney, when GOP voters stayed home (notably in Columbia, Rensselaer, washington, and Warren counties).

Now, if the GOP could only come up with a real candidate for the 21st district, they might have a chance there, demographics not withstanding.  So far, none of the candidates have any real traction, except maybe Tonko.  But he left his Assembly seat for a reason, and Amedore won it for a reason.

My gut feeling is that in the case of Colonie, the Dem's victory will be short lived.  From what I'm to understand, the town GOP is revamping, and the election loss is being used to bring up a younger generation.  But with the fiasco of Heritage Park, the tax increases, and the kerfuffle on Wolf Road, the Dem's may be facing some hard times in the near future in the Town.  Bethlehem is another matter, as that's the new "place to escape to" for ex-CityCrats.  Guilderland I'm woefully short of info on, so I can't make much of a comment on that.

As for the 21st, there's a reason Tonko left the Assembly, and Amedore won the district.  Tonko's big advantages are that he's a known quantity, he has the party connections, and has the "gravitas" to raise cash.  Buhrmaster, the main GOP candidate, just is too unknown, and worse, is in the fuel oil business.  The only GOP'er with a real shot would be Tedisco, but that would mean losing his position in the Assembly minority leadership, and opening up his Assembly seat to a possible take over by the Dems.