Pick our fights and move to the states

My central insight in my recent disagreement with Patrick is that the creativity will take place in the states. While there will be some very important fights in Washington over the next 2-4 years, in particular health care, card check, and bailouts, another equally important fight will happen in 40 or more states over that time period. In the federal fights, our answer is likely to be simply: NO.

But at the states, something else will happen. Check out this map (click for a larger version), courtesy of the New York Times, via The Big Picture:

Our states -- and our municipalities -- are in fiscal crisis. They have gotten drunk on revenue from a credit bubble. As the economy deleverages to something sane, state and local revenue is, or has already, collapsed. Education budgets based on property taxes will develop massive holes when assessments reflect 40% drops in housing prices. Examples, from the NYT story above, of how bad it is:

In Michigan, to reduce overtime costs, fewer streets will be salted this winter. In Ohio, where the unemployment rate is above 7 percent, the state may need a federal loan for the first time in 26 years to cover unemployment costs. In Nevada, which is almost totally dependent on sales taxes and gamblingrevenues, a health administrator said the state may be unable to pay claims in a few months.

So we are going to need to cut spending and/or raise taxes to pay for some of these services. We are probably going to end up fighting over taxes. I searched Google News for "state tax increases" and came up with the following headlines from the last 24 hours:

And, of course, the government employees unions, with their unsustainable pensions on the model of GM and Ford, are shaking the cup for their local and state tax increases too, as I have pointed out before.

There are opportunities here for Republicans to fix the brand. We can demand no tax increases. Perhaps more importantly, we can demand cost-saving reforms in government services. The leaders and winners of these fights will be the ones who will have earned their place as party leaders in the future.

Once again, the salvation for our party and our future leaders doesn't reside in Washington. The real action will be in the state capitals.  Outside of stopping some bailouts, the real action will reside there.

So let's stop talking about Washington and figure out how to play in these states, state by state, municipality by municipality.

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Comments

 The issue is that the

 The issue is that the leftist illuminati, mainly in charge, doesn't see long-term enough to see that not IMMEDIATELY fixing the problem might keep the  problem from returning in the long-run. We'll see in the next few years if they catch on to that.

This could be the worst crisis in history.

Since the dangerous, and economically foolhardy precedent for bailouts has been set by the GSE-created and Democrat-protected mortgage crisis and the UAW-created auto industry mess, more states will likewise demand bailouts most likely starting with California.  Rasing taxes will only lead to more loss of revenue as the economy to shrink from bad policies.  Thus rather than cutting spending and engaging in pro-growth economic polices, most states will expect the Federales to bail out their sorry asses.

This will explode the deficit like never before.  We already face an over trillion dollar deficit for this fiscal year alone.  The national debt will soar to unprecedented heights.  The confiscatory burden this will leave on future genertations will be incalculable.  We may very be facing the end unless state and federal polticians grow a brain and a pair and decide to massively cut spending and say no to more bailouts.

What's this "our" states, Kemosabe?

Our states -- and our municipalities -- are in fiscal crisis.

It looks based on the graphic, that 3/4s of the shortfall can be found in the 'Obama' states.

Here in Texas we do not have a shortfall as of now. So what's this "our" states, Kemosabe? It's their states, the states run by liberals, like the Democrat legislature in Cali. and their RINO Governor, or the all-Democrat legislature in places like Michigan and New Jersey.

I note this partly because this can be a 'learning moment' for people, if the connection between conservative governance and the avoidance of fiscal crises can be made in peoples minds.

In 2002, there was a similar fiscal crunch. States like Texas cut spending. States like Cali raised fees. The states that raised taxes had weak job growth since.

The fiscal crisis results from overspending and overtaxing.

The CA & TX cases are reassuring.

But one has to wonder why UT & AL are in trouble while OR & WA are in good shape.

 

umm... if the blue states are in fiscal crisis

the entire country is in fiscal crisis. who do you think pays most of the taxes, anyhow?

you do the math I know you're capable of.

Please keep telling yourselves that

There are opportunities here for Republicans to fix the brand. We can demand no tax increases. Perhaps more importantly, we can demand cost-saving reforms in government services. The leaders and winners of these fights will be the ones who will have earned their place as party leaders in the future.

That's perfect. Please advocate for no tax increases on rich people and cuts in benefits and services for everyone else. Who needs government to pave roads? Losers, that's who.

Don't change, guys. You're doing great.

Fondest regards.

The Democratic Party

Arkansas apparently.

because pickuptrucks are the only way to get across the streambeds that cut across the roads.

Because who needs taxes! Who needs roads!

At one time I would be suprised that you would say something

so uttely stupid and asinine but now that just par for the course with you.

fuck, man, a boy from Arkansas saved my LIFE

with those fucking skills.

Ain't no fun when it's raining so hard your tires lift off the ground. Sure as Sunday no city boy learned to drive in conditions like that!

Disregard the donkey

You are totally correct.  Look closely at Indiana, where our Governor Mitch Daniels and state legislature has enacted a cap on property taxes, which may even become constitutional limit if passed again.  This did indeed squeeze local municipalities, which made them cut spending for the first time in 30 years.  How did Mitch fare in the election?  He won a state by a huge margin that Obama won for President.  Voters from all sides were excited to vote for limiting government.

The only thing I don't like about Daniels

is his pandering on ethanol and his commitment to cap-and-trade, though his position seems to be marked-based rather than mandatory.

It'll be interesting to see how Jindal, Palin, and Hoeven handle the drop in oil prices; all three of their states rely on oil prices for state revenue.  All three will have an opportunity to test their prowess with the budget and we'll get a chance to see who sticks with conservative principles and comes out without a shortfall.

Daniels took awhile to catch on

After taking office he sold a toll highway to a private firm, who raised the tolls and made him very unpopular.  This contributed to three U.S. house members losing in 2006. He turned things around for his re-elect, but this is still not an unblemished record.

As far as Daniels's future aspirations, he was Bush's budget director in '01 and '02. I'm not sure we want to reprise the Bush adminstration in any fashion in '12.  

Not so sure about that

People may be pining for Bush in '12 if Obama actually sticks with letting his tax cuts, which got us out of the first recession, expire, enacts his cap and trade nonsense, a Supreme Court Justice retires, and Obama is ansy with foreign policy decisions.

I'd be interested to learn what happens in that governor's meeting this week.  You know some are going to whore themselves for federal money; I'm interested to learn who will stand up to Obama and let him know that some of his plans will hurt their state economies.  This stuff will leak out despite the meeting being closed.

Toll road issues

After taking office he sold a toll highway to a private firm, who raised the tolls and made him very unpopular.  This contributed to three U.S. house members losing in 2006. He turned things around for his re-elect, but this is still not an unblemished record.

This hurt the GOP in Texas as well, as Gov Perry was tied to the whole Trans-Texas Corridor (TTC) effort, which was unpopular with rural folks, hated by the anti-NAU conspiracy mongers, and the related deals with private firms stunk up the joint with a whiff of corrupt dealings. Never mind the whole eminent domain/ Kelo angle.

There is probably a good way to go in public-private partnerships on roads, but frankly, these have been handled so badly from a PR perspective, we need to retrace our steps.

In Texas, the transportation commission have in effect killed the TTC, and in an effort to restore public trust have made other commitments on the process of building new highways wrt to eminent domain, forbidding no-bid contracts, public input etc.

Well I can tell you why Kentucky in a budget crisis.

It is called state-funded public works projects (the perferred means of pork for our state's politicians) and that usually means roads and bridges.  Every little two-bit, podunk town in this state wants a road that gives them access to a major state or federal highway, even if there is no good reason for it.  In fact much of the reasoning goes something like this, London got $500,000 in road improvements last year and their in southern Kentucky but eastern Kentucky doesn't get shit (not true) so the good citizens of  Hazard want $525,000 for road improvements this year. The state transportation budget, which finances these projects, gets bigger and bigger every fiscal year.    This often delays construction on actual neeeded road improvements. 

Moreover, we have a prevailing wage law that enshrines the union thug scam of the Davis-Bacon Act as the state level.  Driving up the costs by at least a third because they have to pay the so-called prevailing wage to any contractor who works ony state road project rather than fair market wages.  This has really been for the benefit of state AFL-CIO and their whores in the Kentucky Democrat Party because it means they can charge higher membership dues than the suckers in other unionized industries in the state.

Interesting this has pit the KEA (the state equivalent of the NEA) against the rest of the state's unions.  Many counties need new school facilties because many of them are still using small older building built during the Porgressive Era.  But few want to shell out the money for new school buildings, so the KEA figures if we repeal  the prevailing wage requirement it would signifcantly reduce the cost of a new school facility.

Ronald Reagan wasn't a

Ronald Reagan wasn't a single-issue, "I refuse to raise taxes" person.  I also find it ridiculous that we're listening to Soren Dayton talk about " ' rebuilding ' " the party when he's never resisted a chance to make a cheap attack on Mitt Romney.  The Republican Party needs leaders, not shrills.

And the fact that we lost an election doesn't mean that the party's broken.

I believe the record shows...

...that Reagan raised taxes in every year except for 1987. 

Agree & Disagree

With the notion that creativity will come from the states - I agree that there will be much creativity coming from the states (here in TN, we took the state house for the first time in 140 years) however I don't think it wise to rule out anything from the people in the beltway, especially if they have stuck to conservative Republican principles.

"Bugler Sound the Retreat?"

So we're taking a few casualties.  No need to cut 'n run gents!    Although we're all tempted to do just that at times.  Throw up our hands, turn and walk away.  

States can take care of themselves for now. The battle is to dislodge the transnationalists who've hijacked "our" GOP.   They've resigned themselves to giving over  some governance of our nation to foreign/outside org's/bodies.  They are the ones driving civic conservatives away from the party in droves.  Once (if) this battle is won, it will have a positive trickle down effect on the states.   The present battle that must be won is for the soul of the national GOP.  Darvin Dowdy

Arizona is In the Toilet

It's worse off than all of the states shown.  No wonder Napolitano wants out of the governor's mansion and into Obama's cabinet.  The incoming GOP Gov. Jan Brewer either has the opportunity to make herself great for 2010, or the GOP eats it for 3 elections in a row in AZ.  

Miami, Las Vegas, and Inland Empire are the hardest hit cities

AZ is bad too.

Water wars anyone?

Dover Traps included?

eom.