Saxby showed that Obama won on November 4th, not Democrats

When Barack Obama was on the ballot in Georgia, Jim Martin was within 3% of Saxby Chambliss. Without Obama, Martin gets blown out by 20%. Saxby's message was that a vote for Martin was a vote for a blank check for Democrats.

Today Georgians rejected a blank check for the Democratic Party by far more than typical GOP margins in a red state.

This tells us that Americans picked Obama and change, but not a broad Democratic or left-leaning agenda for America. Open Left's David Sirota understood this last week when he said:

So now, because of this, you have a large majority (though not the whole) of his 10 million-person email list overarchingly organized around the celebrity Barack Obama - not really around issues (though certainly people can like Obama and support specific issues).

So when the Democrats try to push through outrageous things like card-check, significant tax-increases, etc., all we need to do is point to tonight. When progressives were on the ballot, not just a celebrity, the progressives were roundly rejected.

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sweeping conclusion?

I'm sure there will be endless analyses of turnout and speculations on the whys and what-fors of Chambliss's victory. But it's hyperbolic to extrapolate what Georgians did in the run-off to a reflection of what all Americans voted for on November 4th. Georgia is a lovely state but not a bellwether. "When a progressives was were on the ballot, not just a celebrity, the progressives was were roundly rejected by Georgians."

Fixed it.

Were there exit polls in GA?

Georgia may not be a bellwether state but it is the only state in which the electorate had an additional month to both reflect on the issues as well as the candidates. Holding the line at a filibuster proof majority is as good a reason as any for the outcome. Were there any exit polls that could shed some light on the reasons behind the Chambliss win?

And Georgia runs strongly red

If there were a runoff in Massachusetts, I'm pretty sure it would go to the Democrat.

Saxby is a Republican in a red state, AND an incumbent. It's surprsing the seat was even contested. (And the only reason it was contested was due to the Obama wave, true. But that only reflects on THIS contest, not the electorate as a whole.)

in LA, in IL, in the reddest congressional districts

the Democrats won TubOfLard's seat (note: if i remembered the IL guy's name, I'd have used it. for now, the colorful description will suffice), for goodness sakes!

But, oh, woe, we now see that the voters think something different.

Far more accurate might be to think that good organization is harder to pull off in a larger state, particularly with only a month to do it.

The reason behind the Chambliss win was this: 6000 votes in the general, 23 in the special. Exit polls do not represent georgia.

When progressives were on the

When progressives were on the ballot, not just a celebrity, the progressives were roundly rejected 

                                                         in Georgia!

Along the same lines, I think we should have a dry run for UHC in Idaho. Idaho be mad demonstrative of America!

1.2 million + votes

was pretty impressive for Saxby Chambliss; the base showed up as that number is over 2/3 of what voted for him on November 4th.  Pretty impressive for a run-off.  Dems were expecting 20% of the registered Georgia voters to turnout; it ended up pretty close to 40% thanks to our side getting people to vote for Chambliss.

Impressive night and as Sarah Palin said, "the comeback starts in Georgia!"

yes, the comeback of the Southern Party

marginalized and outvoted.

I fear for the South, it has much to lose by being the minority party.

Georgia probably lost on this election

Neither of their senators have any seniority and both are in the minority party. The citizens of Georgia are not likely to have been served with sending Chambliss back to Washington.

A republican winning in GA is a game changer?

How low is the bar set now?

Everytime Obama is viewed as a celebrity, and his supporters as celebrity followers, Obama wins the day.

I started following this site because I do believe that a new Right can form. This post, and the subsequent comments make me think that I may be wasting my time here now.

The margin is the story

Chambliss beat Martin by the same margin Isakson beat Majette in '04. That was in a very Republican year (especially in Zell Miller's home state) and Majette was not perceived as a real threat to win the general election.

Obama lost Georgia

...and Jim Martin was not a strong candidate.  It is a sign of the trouble the GOP is in that this contest even came down to this runoff.

This was more about the GOP doing what it HAD to do, send in every gun blazing and having the likes of Sean Hannity and Neal Boortz and Sarah Palin teasing the base into a froth in one of the reddest of red states in order to salvage something of its former stature.

I still think Georgia's other Seante seat, Isakson, can be had by Democrats in 2 years.  President Obama can do a lot to help the Dem candidate in that Election.

The key, as always, will be recruiting a quality candidate, and getting the same Georgians who came out this November.  Or more.  And that's what a President Obama will do.

why's isakson so much worse than Chambliss?

georgia ain't exactly home to me. ;-) Love some eyes on the ground.

Or

Rather than what they "had" to do you could frame it as "what the heck else was there to do".

It's December.  It's the lame duck session.  What the heck is anyone else that lost a big race doing at the time?  Schedules were clear.

Obama lost Georgia

...and Jim Martin was not a strong candidate.  It is a sign of the trouble the GOP is in that this contest even came down to this runoff.

This was more about the GOP doing what it HAD to do, send in every gun blazing and having the likes of Sean Hannity and Neal Boortz and Sarah Palin teasing the base into a froth in one of the reddest of red states in order to salvage something of its former stature.

I still think Georgia's other Seante seat, Isakson, can be had by Democrats in 2 years.  President Obama can do a lot to help the Dem candidate in that Election.

The key, as always, will be recruiting a quality candidate, and getting the same Georgians who came out this November.  Or more.  And that's what a President Obama will do.

Common wisdom says

That despite the plucky tone of the article, Obama and all the Democrats had a pretty good day last month.  At their most optimistic, Democrats considered Georgia a longshot, and were delighted to make the RNC spend another load of its shrinking funds defending it.  Again.

Yay Money Sink!

you guys need the professionals back, and boy howdy soon!

Your strategists really suck... You spent how much in Tennessee getting Virginia and Montana to go blue?

Dayton is right to quote

Dayton is right to quote Sirota.  The Democrats victory in November was is completely tied to the celebrity status of Barack Obama, a fact which the Democrats should heed carefully as the liberals in the Democratic leadership try to pull the caucus further and further to the left.

That being said, the results of yesterday's runoff was not a game-changer.  Jim Martin is an extremely left-wing liberal, up against a conservative incumbent in a traditionally red state, a state that did not turn blue as some on the Left had hoped.  The left's netroots tried desperately to get the turnout going for the runoff, as that would have been the only way Martin had a shot.  No surprise, they didn't show up.  

OK, as conservatives, what does the Chambliss win mean? Not much really.  It was good to see Palin out there waking everyone up, and she is, and should continue to be a force for conservatives.  

But to me, the real news this week wasn't the Georgia senate seat, it was in Florida.  With Mel Martinez out, and correct me if I'm wrong, the Senate GOP has not a single Hispanic or African American senator.  And the numbers are equally disturbing in the House.  Whoever takes over at RNC needs to address this problem...and FAST. One of the goals of this massive rebuilding effort (I refuse to use the term 'rebranding') is to determine how our beliefs and our message can appeal to Hispanic and African American communities, now that Obama liberals gained even more of their support.  The GOP has a tough road ahead.

http://theforumblog.wordpress.com

 

well, you COULD try to go for the "illegal alien" vote

or for the "unmarried mom" vote...

sorry, just using the SoCon's terminology.

Sorry, you've just gotten your ass whipped by the SoCons. You ain't gonna hit the majority anytime soon with scary boogeymen running your party.

40% of conservatives believe that abortions should be legal.

Are you "Mr. Always Downstream"?

I can't figure out if you're actually here for any other reason than to stick your finger in everyone else's eye.

I'm here because I'm worried.

and because I believe firmly that a two party state is the best solution to the American political machine and special interest corporations.

I believe that the GOP must moderate itself if it wishes to win, and I believe that the GOP has the short end of the stick with the SoCons.

I'm trying to help, even if by some notions, i'm a godless liberal (sure. i like my god fine, and if he isn't yours, it don't bother me)

"A republican winning in GA

"A republican winning in GA is a game changer?

How low is the bar set now?

Everytime Obama is viewed as a celebrity, and his supporters as celebrity followers, Obama wins the day.

I started following this site because I do believe that a new Right can form. This post, and really most posts from Soren Dayton, and the subsequent comments make me think that I may be wasting my time here now."

Fixed that for ya in bold.  Seriously, I appreciate most of the blog posters here, but Soren Dayton seems to me to be nothing but a typical knee-jerk reactionary, not an actual conservative.  I don't mean to get all personal or lead an attack, but I really don't understand how Dayton fits into the picture here.  Consistent faulty reasoning that sounds like, for the most part, is being fed directly from Rush Limbaugh.  It's disappointing.  I'd like an honest debate, but Dayton, at least, doesn't provide that.

 

Now I know why I like Soren Dayton

Soren Dayton seems to me to be nothing but a typical knee-jerk reactionary

Seinfeld-mode on ...

NOT THAT THERE'S ANYTHING WRONG WITH THAT!

sounds like, for the most part, is being fed directly from Rush Limbaugh.  It's disappointing. 

oooh, that's gotta really hurt. comparing him to the #1 talk show radio host in the nation and one of the best articulators out there of current events from a conservative POV.  why dont you just cut to the chase and shout it out loud: Reactionaries are ...(shudder) conservative. Translation for me: Equals .. awesome.

Really now. Trolls are one thing, but when trolls start abusing the House staff, you know you've got an inmates-running-the-asylum situation.

Maitre-D' Ruffini: bring me a double-order of Soren Dayton's latest with a side order of Sean Oxendine's analysis of the runoffs... pronto!

 

 

 

I'm sorry, I thought this site

Was called the NEXT right... not the OLD right. My apologies.

This seat was always a very long shot for the Democrats

I wouldn't read too much into this save. This race should never have been competitive to begin with. 

Pres. Elect Obama was not able to take this state nor has any Democrat since 1976.  538.com showed Sen. Chambliss with about an 80% chance of retaining his seat.

I would pay much more attention to the fact that on November 1, 2006, the Republicans had a 30 seat majority in the house, a 5 seat majority in the senate, and the Whitehouse. In 2008, they Democrats are only a little disappointed that they didn't manage to win a filibuster proof senate to go with the Whitehouse, and a 55+seat majority in the house. 

There is nothing positive about this election for the Republicans. The American people have rejected them and their philosophy and sent several long serving Congressmen and Senators home.

 

 

 

Bounce back is the story

There is nothing positive about this election for the Republicans.

Of course not.  November 2008 was bad...  the question is whether there is an opportunity for bounce back in 2010. Chambliss win gives some hope, as the Obama win didnt translate into return voters.

A 4% margin became a 12% runoff margin for the GOP. If the GOP improves margins by the same 8% in 2010, then the GOP gains back 30 seats

that's idiotic.

maybe they might be able to do that in minnesota.

but a runoff is a runoff and just because you got 5% from the libertarian candidate does not say that you'll manage that anywhere else.

good on you,you won.

funny, I have the same reaction reading YOUR comments

;-)

But let me spell it out for you since you are not quick on the uptake.

Obama made almost all his inroads/gains on the backs of increasing turnout and margins among minority voters. High turnout and an incredible 95% of the black vote can do wonders in a state or district that has just 30% minority voters. The question was whether they would keep turning out. They didnt. GOP turnout was better in the runoff than Dem turnout - the Dems have won and now are ready to sit back. The fact is that event is an Obama-election only event. Take it away, and take away the anti-Bush energy, and you have a very different race in 2 years.

good on you,you won.

You'll be saying that in 2010 in a lot of races as well. This center-right nation did okay with a Republican Congress to balance out the Clinton Presidency, and the third Clinton term could benefit from that as well.

Obama may not mind that script at all, since that's what gave Clinton a second term - a Republican Congress to triangulate against. By 2010, he may be DESPERATE for someone to take that hit with him.

 

Democrats don't win elections in Georgia

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I am amused - folks are reading way too much into this Saxby victory in GA. Georgia is a Republican state as red as it gets. The only safe place for Democrats is in Atlanta. Republicans in Georgia are very passionate about their party; however, It is probably one of a few states in the union where Chambliss could win a Senate seat.  I don’t think there is a perfect storm capable of every electing a Democratic Senator in Georgia.  

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change

Just as stated, I bet a lot of Georgians wouldn't identify themselves as part of the leftist illuminati... just hung up on the idea of change and having something different than Bush for their country