The Obama-Frank defense cuts create an opening

My friend and colleague, Patrick Ottenhoff, had an interesting analysis of Virginia back in June that could be on the money:

Major federal contractors set up shop in Northern Virginia and, in turn, subcontracted work to technology firms that hired accountants and lawyers. The young professionals who work at those firms in Tysons Corner, Reston and Ashburn are part of Obama’s core constituency. But the ideology and lifeblood of many of these firms is rooted in continued defense spending — one part of the Bush legacy that McCain would be sure to continue. In an election in which Republicans’ Iraq policy will hurt McCain in almost every state, his bullish foreign policy could actually help him in some quarters of Virginia.

Let's forgive Pat for missing the economic crisis and improvement in Iraq and focus on the basic economic point for a moment. When Barney Frank said that he would cut defense spending by 25%, both resonating with an image of Barack Obama and particular statements, an opportunity was created.

State Jobs Money
Florida 723,000 $52b
Virginia 245,000 $56b
 North Carolina 416,000 $23b
Pennsylvania  60,000  $8b
Missouri 159,000  

Significant defense cuts have the opportunity to creat massive economic dislocations for people and communities. And they know it. Just look at the terror in Northern Virginia over BRAC. John McCain's campaign figured this out. This is basic paycheck issue for a lot of hard-working people. Suddenly, Barack Obama's "radicalism" means something to real people. Let's look at some numbers.

The key thing to realize hereis that you can cut ads in these states and people will get it. Imagine scripts like these:

Barack Obama doesn't just endanger our national security wtih his untested ideas, he  endangers [state]'s economic security.  In [state], that means [jobs] jobs. And it just starts there. When you remove those jobs from [state] everyone suffers from even lower house prices to the damage done to small businesses.

These can be supplemented with statements by local politians who, inevitably, fell over themselves to talk about BRAC and the damage that removing even one office at one military base, or even civilian office, would do to the community.

This is an issue that, when tied with Joe the Plumber and whatever crazy ACORN or whatever else stuff pops over the weekend can resonate with John McCain's underlying message. These are real issues. Barack Obama is talking about "change", while John McCain is talking about what's in your pocket-book. That's something that people understand and that we need to nail the last 5 days of the campaign.

 

 

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Comments

the yuppies in NOVA do not care

When people hear about Democrats wanting to cut the defense budget, they think the funds will be cut to wasteful defense contractors in Iraq.  They do not believe that they will be cut.

However, those defense workers in NOVA and other places are highly educated and working to get their kids into first tier universities.  They see Sarah Palin is an idiot and a failure of a parent because her kids are pregnant and not going to college.  Those defense workers are also social libertarians and see the Republicans are facist when it comes to gays and abortion.

Also, a large portion of those defense workers are non-whites (the Fairfax County public schools are less than half white).  The Republicans are a dismal failure at appealing to minorities.

Maybe in the Republicans had any type of consistent philosphy to sell to the upper middle class, they would stand a chance but as long as the the faces of the party are George Bush and Sarah Palin, The Republicans can forget about appealing to upper middle class knowledge workers.

If these liberal yuppies think Sarah Palin is an idiot

well then they deserve what they get.  That includes the loss of their jobs when Obama guts the defense budget.  They won't get any sympathy from me for voting for symbolism rather than actual substance (as phrase made famous by Rush Limbaugh goes). If they really are so caught up with their superficial, meaningless identity politics then they are not nearly as smart as they like to think they are.

"upper middle class knowledge workers"

Considering that these people favor "reparations", or a massive transfer of wealth from the tax payers in general towards blacks in particular, I'm going to go out on a limb and be the first to suggest that these "knowledge workers" are as dumb as a box of rocks.

 

 

Folks in Tidewater vote, too

Closing down the CVN production at Newport News so Barney Frank can send more money to ACORN for affordable housing is not likely to be very popular down that way.

You know SD, if you are so concerned the GOP is unfashionable among yuppies try moving to CT. But to quote the band van Zant, I'd rather be hated for who I am than loved for who I'm not.   

Confused

So now we are supporting war because its good for the economy? You guys are sick. 

Indeed, you are confused

The point is that Obama is bad for our security, bad for our economy, and bad for our communities. This shows another place where McCain's values are closer to people than Obama's.

close, but not quite

1. Defense is unlikely to be cut deeply with two wars going on.

2. There's plenty o' jobs in DC even with defense cuts. Although, I do see a dent in this market AFTER the rest of the country.

3. The big issue in NOVA (Nothern VA ), DC, Maryland is the houseing market. VA townhomes in particular are a very bad sell right now. McCain just doesn't have the answer for anyone here.

4. Yes, the DC Metro area are all elitist. Thanks to the endless Republican barrage against anyone with a formal education and low-grade nickle and dime name calling, these people are unsympathetic to four more years of republicans. This is why I've riled against that so often on this site . . . to the point that some think I'm a liberal.

5. And with the other posting and related to my comment above, most people here are social liberals.  Republicans have defined themselves out of this market. No gays, no blacks, no hispanics, no one with an education, and no one critical to republican mantra.

6. Add a bad and unapplealing McCain campaign. Baracks infomercial bored me last night, but it was slick and very well produced. How does McCain hit back? With a whacky-wank, paint by the numbers negative ad right after. Add that BHO didn't talk about McCain at all, and the McC ad contrasted by ONLY talking about Barack. It looked cheap and petty.

7. With early voting and BHO get-out-the-vote organization here, VA is gone.

 

But what the hell, he should try that defense cutting arguement. Better than what's he's been doing so far.

Wrong

Confused is broadly right. It would be a crazy ad to extoll defense spending on the grounds of economic "security." Either we need the spending for national security, or we do not.  If we do not, the workday capacity of these smart people, with Ivy bound kids or not, should be spent on productive matters, like producing goods and services that benefit society.

Under the "jobs for doing nothing leads to lower house values," we could solve every problem through paying people grand sums to man lemonade stands. 

more fear

Why can't McCain talk about McCain? What jobs is he bringing to VA? To NC? As noted above, defense cuts are highly unlikely with 2 wars going on, not to mention that even after wars end, money is used to replenish reserves and to train new recruits etc. Spending has not varied as much as you would think.

This whole strategy also ignores early voting...most people made up their minds weeks ago and already voted. This late in the game, McCain should be giving people reasons to vote for him, not against someone else.

And just a side note, my company invests in companies that manufacture weapons, and the companies and the government already know which weapons programs are going to be cut. The gov't prioritizes, and weapons that are too expensive or don't meet certain standards are already being pushed back in production, and this is common knowledge in the industry.

Ummm okay

Since you've been spammed by posters who aren't of the Conservative persuasion (see first post: Republican's are facist) I'll take a crack at analysing your idea.

Since I live in one of the states/cities that is being affected by BRAC, if I were to see this type of commercial, it would really hit home.  It would actually make people stop and think about their decision, even if it is for a split second.

The lifeblood of these type of cities are the government installations they are built around.  When the that group leaves, which could be over half of the population, then the local economy is devastated.  The best example of this would be the ghost towns in California that resulted from the end of the Gold Rush.

Not fear, it a definite posibility.  Tumbleweeds, my friend, tumbleweeds.

 

And to my friend above.  McCain does offer examples and specifics.  Obama is the one talking in generalities (change is what we need, "I'll cut anything that doesn't work", corruption is bad, people shouldn't kill, etc)

The End of the Gold Rush

McSpam here.

The lifeblood of these type of cities are the government installations they are built around.  When the that group leaves, which could be over half of the population, then the local economy is devastated.  The best example of this would be the ghost towns in California that resulted from the end of the Gold Rush.

Maybe not the happiest analogy ever, unless of course you suppose it was the Wicked State that put the gold where they dug it.

Happy days.

Question about BRAC

I will say I work in NOVA and am wondering how much BRAC does terrorize the region? Certainly some jobs are gone, but the bread and butter in NOVA are the contractors who work somewhat independently of the bases. My question is how independantly? Unless they close the Pentagon and the governement moves to Chicago after the next election, I don't see CACI, Northrup Grumm, Dyncorp et. al. being too worried.  Anyone in the industry know?

This, of course, only applies to NOVA. Virginia Beach and other areas (that are pretty solidly republican anyway) will definitely be scared of BRAC.

And I also think the point of the original topic is mute because those people being affected wouldn't be undecided. The goverment is the air here; it's hard to be undecided. That's why I say VA is lost . . . unless polling is wrong.

I have to laugh

Where you been?

One of John McCain's talking points, my friends, has been a promise to "end the wasteful pork barrel spending, and cut Defense waste at the Pentagon, and I know how to do it."

Defense spending has increased under the GOP by almost 100%, to almost 700 BILLION dollars, or 40-50% of our discretionary spending.  It is absurd to think we need to be spending that much.

It is old-style GOP thinking, and people are sick of it:  Seed taxpayer money in Defense industries and consultants, wave the flag, return to gather campaign contributions, repeat.

More of the same from you

The McCain campaign was listening!

A great ad, with Senator John Warner, arguing the very case!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyH8_DPR4bI 

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