What will 2010 be about?

Sometimes, election years get focused on certain races to tell the story of the cycle. It is too early to tell what the stories of the next cycle will be, but here are two possibilities.

In Pennsylvania, recently re-minted Democrat Arlen Specter has said that he is not shifting his position on card-check, aka the Employee Forced (nee Free) Choice Act. SEIU and AFL-CIO are already pressuring Specter to cave by, among other things, encouraging Rep. Joe Sestak to run against him, in a race in which card-check would be a central debate.

Ironically, the 200,000 people that became Democrats, making Specter's GOP primary impossible, are likely Specter voters in a Democratic primary. As the Democrats have become more affluent, moderate tolerant, and less labor-dependent, the power of organized labor may not be so large.

What if the Democratic primary became a referendum on card-check for Democrats?  How important -- really -- is card check to Democrats? With Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Rahm Emanuel, etc., all weighing in on the anti-card-check side. Wouldn't that be funny. Wouldn't a Specter/card-check victory be a decisive defeat for the unions? This race could become nationalized in much the way that the Lieberman race was in 2006.

Similarly, I can see a fight in New Hampshire over gay marriage in the general. The legislature has passed easily reconcilable bills that legalize gay marriage legislatively. It is likely that the governor will neither sign nor veto them, bringing the law into effect.

But New Hampshire is different than Massachussets and Iowa, where gay marriage has been created by judicial fiat and seems unlikely to be reconsidered due to the ballot initiative processes. It is also different than neighboring Vermont, which just legalized gay marriage by legislative action. This is a dead issue in Vermont.

But you could imagine a battle in the general election in New Hampshire over gay marriage. Democrats had not controlled the state legislature since 1874, and some of these seats could swing back. After all, in 2006, we lost, as Time put it,  "91 state legislature seats, six of [our] 16 state senate seats and both [our] congressional seats". And gay marriage would undoubtedly play a role in a number of swing seats around the state and be a nationalized campaign. Money would flood in from around the country for both sides.

My gut is that gay marriage will not be a compelling issue in New Hampshire, but this will be the only serious opportunity for pro-traditional marriage forces to defend their position at the ballot box. They probably cannot afford to pass it up.

Aside from all the questions about the ability of the GOP to comeback and the future of the redistricting process, 2010 could be quite fascinating.

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That had better not

...be the centerpiece of the 2010 congressional campaign.

card check.

As usual, if Republicans continue to act like it's some kind of joke, aka 'Forced Choice Act', they'll continue to smell like the inside of a fake leg. Aren't companies capable of sitting down with workers and saying, "yes" and "no" during a negotiation? Do you really have to act like the workin' man is the one getting fucked in this deal? Can't you spin it as bad for the economy or something? The best thing EFCA has going for it is Republican defiance.

Excellent, creative use...

..of metaphor here!

My compliments, as a lover of the English language, and collector of metaphor.

It seems that not much people

It seems that not much people have been willing to touch on this subject so far so maybe I’m going to be the first one here.  As you all probably know by now, Microsoft announced Exchange 2010 back in April 15th and one of the features in Exchange 2010 that got a lot of peoples attention is that it will have build in archiving, retention and eDiscovery. I am purposely not going to single out archive company names in this article.

 

Flat Roofing Vancouver

PA is union central

They sent Joe the Plumber here, and he got heckled, remember?

For PA, this is as much a local issue as a national one (maybe I'm not understanding your term...).

Plus, in PA the saliency of Specter's switch from cosponsor of EFCA to anti-EFCA -- right at the moment of turning Democrat. Might be very interesting.

Still think Sestak is being used to flush Specter Left, but that's just me.

2010 will be about

...watching the GOP try not to drown, while holding on for dear life to all its anvils and albatrosses.

Ah yes, New Hampshire, the

Ah yes, New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die State, where the Legislative body has been taken over by the most horrific predatory animal known to the Republican Party. Great place to make a stand by waving the issue of Gay Marriage. One would think that the Party’s deep thinkers would have at least glanced at the demographic brake down of the California Prop 8 vote. For the under 30, 2 to 1 in favor of gay marriage, and women, a majority.

As for Pennsylvania, in the background will be the filibuster proof Senate. If the Republicans continues as the Party of No, it will not only be the base that will be motivate. The Unions may be weak as political motivators, but the Union worker, out of a job, will vote his pocketbook.

The big Q.E.D. ? Forget the wedge issues, come up with solutions to our multiple problems…  

The Republican Party needs new stuff to be against

The Republican Party needs new stuff to be against.  Everyone knows they're against the old stuff that they've always been against.  They need to encourage the Democrats to come up with grand new proposals, policies, and solutions so the Republicans can be against them.

Since it's only the middle of

Since it's only the middle of May, you might be wondering how I can predict the 2010 wedding trends. But couples getting married next year are already planning their weddings, and making choices based on current fashions, the economy, and family traditions. And though I've started my list of what I think the 2010 wedding trends, I'd love to know what you guys think is hot, hip and popular.

 

thank you,

Parking Lot Games

Veteran Pennsylvania Sen.

Veteran Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party on Tuesday, saying he has found himself increasingly "at odds with the Republican philosophy."

 

regards,

health insurance leads

Maybe it would be easier to primary Franco Harris (NOT) . . .

n/t 

2010??

I agree w/what Rush Limbaugh said the other day on his show. The 2 defining benchmark issues will be right to life and illegal immigration. Mostly the latter.  Most Repub's are pro-life but many are still in the pocket of the U.S. Chamber and want porous borders to remain. One other issue that I think Rush missed was the jobs situation.  We're fast approaching double digit unemployment in this country.  Which is also closely related and parallels the illegal immigration issue. Actually the 2 issues dock at a certain point.  12-20 million illegals translates into at least 10 million jobs that U.S. citizens or legal immigrants need.  And we're not talking "lettuce picking" jobs.  These are good paying warehouse, janitorial and construction jobs.  These are jobs that Americans "will" take and need. 

The smart GOP candidate will come out, prior to 11/2/10, in favor of E-Verify and strong enforcement of the I-9/Social Security Mismatch Letter program.  All on the basis that these are jobs U.S. citizens need and focusing on employers who hire illegals rather than the illegals themselves.  DD

Dowdy, your figures

...make no sense at all.

First of all, you should be aware that the figures for illegals are made up.  No one knows for sure how many there are, how many stay each year, how many come in, how many go back.  There could be as few as 3 million in the whole country.

Jobs?  We've lost a million jobs just in 6 weeks, Dowdy.

Illegal immigration issue is great for making right-wingers blood boil and heads explode, but so far even you should admit it has not translated into GOP votes. 

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My compliments, as a lover of the English language, and collector of metaphor. Masters Degree