Why Minnesota is in play

I think Palin helped more in Minnesota than Pawlenty would have.  She and her husband both have a very "Minnesota" vibe about them.  That state had McCain down by over 10 points just a few weeks ago.  I thought it was out of reach for McCain to even try.

The fact that the Star-Tribune says it's a tie means McCain is actually leading by more than 5 points.  That paper has had a terrible history of polling against Republicans.  Every election has embarrassed the pollsters at the Star-Tribune, and I absolutely think their polling is purposely slanted.

I think your spot on on your analysis of what's going on.  The two most fervent demographics for Obama are tapped out, African-Americans and students.  If McCain can just do a little better than Bush did in 2004 among the blue-collar voters, McCain will take the state.  If Minnesota goes McCain, chances are Wisconsin will too, as Bush did better there and lost by the smallest of margins.

It's still too early to get over-confident, as the Palin/Convention bounce will probably settle things down, but this is state Obama will have to fight for.  McCain's style is a natural fit for the state, and so is Palin.  Also, the Coleman vs. Al Franken race is going to also help McCain, I see Coleman winning that race by 10 points.

I'm feeling good about Minnesota.

...support from the union rank n' file if it would get over its fear of being branded as "populist".  Actually a little dash of populism mixed into the GOP platform isn't going to hurt.  But we don't even have to go there.  If McCain/Palin would simply bypass the union leaders and talk directly to the workers and explain to them, "hey, we're Republicans. We're going to differ with you on certain issues. But under a Republican administration you are going to prosper much more than under democrat rule.  And here's why......".   Take that tact.  Believe me many a union member would pull the GOP lever on 11/4/08.  They'd continue to sport an Obama bumper sticker.  They'd  show up at the democrat rallies because they know they'd better.  But they'd pull for McCain/Palin on election day. 

There is a lot of discord right now between the union rank n' file and the union leadership.  Much of it has to do w/illegal immigration.  U.S. workers aren't stupid and they know that illegals are driving down wages.  But the union leadership - all they can see is thousands more workers paying more union dues.  Even if they are illegal.  Of course this isn't exactly McCain's strong suit, either.  But maybe Palin could take up the slack in this area. 

Additionally, the rank 'n file do not want an end to the secret ballot.  They fear it.  They have enough sense to know that union thugs would become "enforcers".   So if McCain/Palin will speak forcefully on this issue, they'll gain votes.

Franken isn't hurting either.  Many a Minnesotan doesn't want to make an idiot/fool/moron out of themselves and their state by voting in an absolute bozo. 

This is do-able.  MN can go red.  Darvin Dowdy

The Employee Free Choice Act is going to protect workers from those selfish and cruel bosses who want to exploit their employees (sarcasm).  Never mind the fact that when it comes to unionization, the Wagner Act basically gives them all the advantages as well as legalized monoploly power.  I hope the majority of the rank and file do oppose the corrupt agenda of their leadership.  Their could still be a place for unions (as things stand I personally have no use for them) if they would go back to the philosophy of Samuel Gompers which was non-compulsory, voluntary pro-business unionism that simply seeked to collectively bargain for workers.  And understand that workkers and management need to work together as a team.

I hope though you all are right about MN.  I would love to see that state go Republican for the first time since 1972.  The nutroots would sh** their pants on election day!