Surrendering to the Left "Won't Work"

Over at the American Spectator, my friend Robert Stacy McCain makes a persuasive argument that this stimulus package simply won't work.  He then chastises the President Obama for this statement: "There is no disagreement that we need action by our government -- a recovery plan that will help to jump-start the economy."

Tired of hearing this insipid "everybody agrees" argument, the libertarian Cato Institute produced an open-letter response ad (pdf) featuring the bold headline: "With all due respect, Mr. President, that's not true." The open letter has now been signed by more than 200 economists, and I overheard a top Cato official last week tell a supporter that the institute plans to continue its ad campaign against the phony Keynesian consensus.

His conclusion provides some very fitting advice (emphasis added) relevant to this site:

Republicans should consult some of the economists who've signed that Cato open letter and develop some smart arguments against the underlying Keynesian rationale of stimulus spending. It is never a bad time for Republicans to speak economic truth, and the truth about the Pelosi plan can still be summed up in three words: It won't work.

There are two distinct things which "won't work."   The first is that the stimulus plan won't have the desired impact and will certainly have many negative and unintended consequences.

The second is that if Republicans wish to regain lost political turf, they are going to have to start learning how to speak and act like fiscal conservatives again.  Capitulating to President Obama on issues such as this won't provide people a reason to vote Republican.  Why vote for the socialist-lite when you can get the real deal?

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Dittos

n/t

And here is a Republican who says it will work.

And here is a Republican who says it will work.

So who is right? I have no way of knowing.

I do know that I am seeing the revenues for my small business drop week-by-week.

I read "The Economist"; you can put them in the "something must be done" camp. ("no one disputes that a big fiscal punch is needed," they say in this week's edition).

And I do have the impression that the vast majority of people involved in economics and business say something must be done, soon. Yes, the Cato Institute got 200 economists to put their names on their ad - but if you did an ad arguing for the reverse, you could probably get 200,000 names.

I'm interested in politics, specifically Republican politics. However, I haven't seen my party put forward an alternative plan that I can believe in. So I'm supporting the stimulus bill.

Zandi is not a Republican.

Zandi is a Democrat.  But since he was an economic advisor to John McCain, he has played the role of 'token conservative' anyway.  Also note that no other economic advisors to John McCain have come out in support of the bill.  Do people really think McCain's only economic advisor was Zandi?

Oh, and incidentally Zandi has recently said that he no longer supports the current package.

Oh, and what should be the essential elements of an alternative Republican stimulus package that you could believe in?

Zandi's status

Link to Zandi's RNC page: link. And in your link he quibbles with the bill but doesn't say he no longer supports it.

As for a plan: I actually don't care what is in it, just so long as it stops the downward spiral. When times are good I want balanced budgets. But right now I think is spending is what is needed to get things going again.

not caring what's in the bill?

So, bee insurance and condoms and giveaways to liberal special interest groups and building new schools in districts that have vacant ones, these are all okay to you?  Things that permanently grow government and empower the state over the individual, all okay?  Surely there must be some differentiating feature between what you have in mind and what the Democrats have in mind.

All that I care about is that it works.

You can hyperventilate all you want about what happens in a fraction of a percent of the bill - if the rest of it goes through and gets things going again, that fine with me. And, last time I checked, this is still a democracy and we will still elect new representatives in 2010 and a new president in 2012, so I don't think your worries about permanently changing the balance between the state and the individual are valid.

then shouldnt we care what's in it now?

Like, before we spend a trillion dollars?

Quick question

Are you a seminar caller?

Huh?

Don't understand.

Seminar Caller

Wiki here.

Ah. You see, I work for a living

Ah. You see, I work for a living, and do not have time to listen to talk radio all day long, hence my unfamiliarity with this term - which, frankly, I still find confusing. Why "seminar"?? Anyway, I am not one. And I'm a little cheesed to think that because I'm not 100% on board with your definition of orthodoxy I have to justify myself. Do you want this to be an echo chamber?

I, for one....

...don't think you were a seminar caller.

But I do believe the recession will bottom out around summer and turn around by 2010.

 

ex animo

davidfarrar

I'm thinking...

... around late fall.

I don't know what a seminar caller is either.  New one on me.

On the plus side though, my ex went to SEMO.  She took polsci under Rush's old prof.

Some student asked him about Rush.  He said he wasn't impressed.

Go figure.  Everyone in Cape knows him as a dope addict from way on back.

I know a girl that works at a pharmacy that remembers the Limbaugh maid coming in to pick up Rush's dope. 

You and Kudlow are seeing this....

But I don;t think we hit a hard bottom until the last of the toxic subprime ARM's reset  in early-mid 2010. And forget bailouts ---a lot of these NINJA borrowers wouldn;t qualify now for a certified pre-owned Hyundai; let alone a McMansion.

  

wait until the alt-a mortgages are done collapsing too.

;-)

subprime isn't the only thing that's toxic.

How about something that doesn't permanently expand government?

The problem here is it seems everyone is eager to have Washington pull the trigger, without having a blessed clue where they are aiming.. Maybe this guy is running our economic policy?.

The one certaintly is we will end up owing another trillion dollars to foreign creditors and will no doubt make this an annual event.

When Moveon.org starts trashing the bill, then I'll know it's worth passing. 

 

You Made My Point for Me

Your "Republican" who said it will work also was a key supporter of John McCain.  John McCain and Sarah Palin called the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "necessary."

McCain and Palin lost.  To quote myself, the voters collectively asked, "Why vote for the socialist-lite when you can get the real deal?"

If Republicans can't argue against this stimulus package based on principle, at least they could for the benefit of electoral success.

what's your small business?

many folks have already retired (see bill gates).

Do you read lolfed?

Nuance

I think R's need a little more pronounced nuance.  First, yes we need a spending bill and tax bill (CBO current package has positive impact for first two years)

Second, we must (contrary to Keynes) be concerned with the future.  So automatically phase out spending as function of GDP growth

Third we all (even Dems) must be concerned about sinking our country into debt.  Obama tries the Fear card....but there are other Fear cards

  1. What happens when debt is 100 or 120 percent of GDP?
  2. What is long term implications of government share of GDP greater than 40%
  3. The Euro model implies slow growth, high unemployment

Now, the voters have to decide what the next decade or more looks like.

The advantage of aiming for Japan of the 1990s, or of the EU is that we'll be able to remain realtively wealthy as a whole.  However, lifestyles will have to degrade...either through inflation or taxes or regulation.

There could well be serious re-distributional issues, for example, from private employees to public employees and from the middle class to the poor.

The basic theme will be that, now that the music has stopped try to keep as much as your wealth as you can.

Is this where the US is?  I don't know, but I think the R's would do well to begin connecting the dots for people.  Honestly, there's not much left to lose.

We had debt of 100% of GDP

We had debt of 100% of GDP in WWII and seem to have gotten over that fairly well.

post-WW2 economics

We got out of it because we were the only industrial power left standing, and therefore the only one from which the rest of the world purchased their industrial goods.  We cannot expect such a favorable economic climate this go around.

My word, where to start!

In 1946 there hadn;t been any serious civilian housing or auto production for five years; following a decade of depressed production during the first two FDR terms; there was a huge influx of demobilized soldiers into the labor force; and the Nanny state was at relative rest.

 

connecting the dots and banging the drums

I think the Republicans are connecting some of the dots, anyway.  Many people are turning away from Porkulus because of the fears associated with the huge price tag.  This is actually a very risky strategy for Democrats now, because if Porkulus passes, the Democrats still have to unveil their budget for FY 2010 (expensive).  And of course their plan to nationalize health care (expensive).  AND their promised tax cuts for the middle class (expensive - at least in the way Democrats calculate it).  And whatever else Democrats are planning to do, which, whatever it is, you can count on it being expensive.  And with each of these new programs I would hope Republicans keep banging the drum of fiscal responsibility and not sinking our nation deeper and deeper into debt.  One would hope that at some point the polls will turn decisively against the Democrats as they finally say "no more".  So the Democrats risk losing two in the bush for the one in the hand they have now.

psychology.

Republicans win when people are fat, lazy and selfish.

Democrats win when people are lean and scared like rabbits.

Help out your neighbor is the cry, and being heard from all quarters.

Did you throw a superbowl party?

No more will never come.

The GOP surely knows based on the past 30 years that the point will never come where the public says "enough." All Republican presidents allowed or encouraged the defecits and debt to balloon to stratospheric levels. No one ever took up their torches and pitchforks. Now the numbers are so far beyond comprehension as to be meaningless.

Republicans will gain nothing electorally by suddenly becoming fiscal hawks. Yes, it may arguably be "the right thing." But the argument means as much to 99% of the public as me arguing for a gazillion and you arguing that a bajillion would be more prudent. Complete Dr. Seuss nonsense.

The GOP needs to reform their image as the party of what works. Not a bunch of Church Ladies who have suddenly gotten fiscal religion. Nobody is buying what you are selling. Arguing against 2% of every bill as a waste just makes you look silly, and won't move voters. Argue the bills on their overarching principle of whether or not it will acheive it's aims. If not , have a damn good alternative ready. Just saying "No" without offering a substitute is not being a party of what works, but a party of tearing things down.

Or just continue as you were. I'm a liberal, so it's really no skin off my ass if you guys waste the next 4 years arguing pennies while we decide where to invest the dollars.

"invest the dollars"

That's a hoot. Those DTV converter boxes will certaintly raise national productivity. And expanded food stamps and unemployment benefits are going to advance our economy for the challenges of the next century. Perhaps we can expect ACORN to do what DARPA hasn;t done.

President Roosevelt and Lord Keynes are thankfully not around to see this lame excuse of a bill sully their good names. 

By the way "Republicans will gain nothing electorally by suddenly becoming fiscal hawks"

Hmm. maybe you are too young to have remembered this election year

expanding food stamps and unemployment benefits

WILL give us resources to better start the new century. a healthier population undevastated by plague, smarter children... there really is an argument, if a frail one.

Internet is the difference.

1994 was an amazing political genius accomplishment for Newt and his crew. But it would not work today, because the Internet is no longer in it's infancy. In our Web 2.0 world the bloggers and posters lead the MSM around by the nose. Spin and willfully ignorant mis-statements are no longer allowed to percolate for three days to a week and enter the public consciousness as a meme.

There are now hundreds of thousands of unpaid fact checkers. The Hannity's and Olbermann's of the world depend upon them and echo their message. Left or right, these days you have to come with the truth. Lies get exposed within the hour they are told. McCain never understood that being the media darling for 20 years meant there was video of him saying damn near anything, that contradicted his message of the day.

Republicans better come up with a damn strong national theme for the 2010 midterms. And they only have 6-10 months to come up with one. I can guarantee the Democrat theme will be built around the magic number "60", with plenty of feel good flashbacks to the great leaders of the 60's era, JFK, RFK, and MLK. Very strong stuff.

"what works"

Fine, let the GOP be the party of "what works".  Show me when Keynesian fiscal stimulus has worked, and I'll be all for it.

That's my point too.

Fine if you don't like Keynes. You don't have to be "all for it." Offer a viable alternative to acheive the same ends by a different means. You can't just snipe about miniscule appropriations that seem silly to you. Tell us what is important to you.

And it needs to be a new idea. Bush and Co. took a big steaming shit on all the old ones.

what would mises say?

my lib econ friends like him better than keynes anyway.

and larry summers continues to be an asshole.

new conservative ideas

Oh I see, so in essence you say "propose new ideas as long as they're not tax cuts".  LOL sure.  I'll offer a more 'nuanced' view: Bush's big problem was that he cut taxes without cutting spending or offering regulatory relief.  So I'll be happy to offer a new idea which doesn't repeat Bush's mistake.

1. Cut all corporate taxes and capital gains taxes to zero for 1 year.  Then, reinstate them at half their current rates for the next two years.

2. A six-month payroll tax holiday for everyone.  Then, once the holiday is over, creation of individual private accounts within social security for ~1/8th of everyone's future contributions.

3. Extension of Bush's tax cuts for an additional two years beyond the 2010 deadline.

4. An immediate hiring freeze and salary freeze for the entire federal government.  All top officials get a 10% pay cut.

5. An across-the-board budget cut of somewhere in the neighborhood of 5%, and larger budget cuts for agencies which are non-essential, such as things like NASA, foreign aid, bee insurance and provision of condoms.  Don't get me wrong, I like NASA, but in tough times it's a luxury not a necessity.

6. An immediate 1-year moratorium on any new regulations.  During the moratorium, every department will be tasked with reviewing every single regulation under their purview and subjecting them to scrutiny by an independent, non-governmental advisory board appropriate for each department.  All of this work would of course be public and public comments would be welcomed.  I would even consider some incentive system for departments which reduce and/or streamline the most in their regulations, perhaps a bigger restoration of budget cuts or something like that.

7. Reform of health insurance by removing the tax deduction for businesses for providing health insurance, requiring businesses to count health insurance as a taxable benefit for their employees, and then creating the same tax deduction for individuals.  So, there should be no net tax consequences for individuals who have health insurance already through their companies, but it would open up entrepreneurs and small businesses to receive the same tax treatment as large companies for their health insurance.  Moreover it will drive down costs of insurance as a lot more individuals enter the marketplace.  Also, allow competition among states for health insurance plans, so that I have the opportunity of purchasing the equivalent of Geico for health insurance as well as with car insurance.

8. Infrastructure spending?  Sure, but only for projects that can demonstrably show they are ONE-TIME KEYNESIAN STIMULUS.  That means moderate-to-large scale infrastructure projects that have only maintenance costs as long-term expenses.  So, no ongoing social welfare programs that have large perpetual recurring costs.  I would also favor projects that are closely connected to energy independence.

9. And for God's sake, no cap-and-trade global warming nonsense, no punishing businesses for success, no bailing out failed businesses, and NO MORE SOCIALISM.

These are just a few ideas off the top of my head.  I"m sure with more than 15 minutes' thought I could come up with more.  Hope these constitute new enough ideas for you.

All that sounds more substantive than anything I heard last week

That list is exactly the type of stuff I recommend. Now if you can just get McConnell and Boehner on board. Plus, it needs to have the backing of the majority of economists. At least they have to be willing to concede, "It could very well work."

McKaskill made a great point on MTP this Sunday. She said the fact that Collins, Snowe, and Spector were in the negotiations room the whole time pretty much proves the door wasn't barred to Republicans or their ideas.

I think the worst thing to come out of this fight is that the GOP has now showed the Democrats how to get around them. Toss in about 1-2% "silly stuff" for them to find and for you to agree to remove. It's like giving your keys to a baby. He's not going to do anything of consequence with them, but it will keep him quiet and occupied while the adults conduct their business.

United States, 1932 to 1939

An example of what works is the United States, 1932 to 1939. I know that you all insist that WWII ended the Great Depression, but I think that the following figures demonstrate that the economy was recovering before ware spending ramped up. So I included the defense budget as a % of GDP as well as the GDP number itself  FYI, Roosevelt took office in March, 1932.

  • Year    GDP ($B) Defense Budget
  • 1929     $103.6     1.4%
  • 1930     $91.2      1.7%
  • 1931     $76.5      1.7%
  • 1932     $58.7      1.7%
  • 1933     $56.4      1.4%
  • 1934     $66.0      1.1%
  • 1935     $73.3      1.9%
  • 1936     $83.8      2.7%
  • 1937     $91.9      2.2%
  • 1938     $86.1      1.7%
  • 1939     $92.2      1.9%
  • 1940     $101.4     1.7%
  • 1941     $126.7     5.6%
  • 1942     $161.9     17.8%
  • 1943     $198.6     37%
  • 1944     $219.5     38.8%

 

"what works"

Oh yes, the economy grew from its absolute lowest point.  But it did not return to pre-Depression levels until the advent of WW2.  In other words, the economy didn't really recover until then, if you define "recovery" as "returning to your starting point".

You'll also note that from 1929-33 the economy shrank IN HALF.  That hasn't happened in our current situation.  We aren't even CLOSE to that.

However, you do agree that it worked?

However, you do agree that it worked? And that it is a model that we can study and learn from? They were making it up as they went along.

cutting spending

So, artigiano, when do we start paying down the debt?  What parts of the federal budget will you cut once that time arises?  I simply do not trust Democrats to cut government spending one iota (except for defense spending, of course).

We could start with the Department of Education

Eliminating the federal Department of Education even used to be part of the Republican Platform.

That's where the money is.

Chem-It would seem that the best place to start would be on a defense budget so bloated that we spend more annually than every other country in the world combined. Completely ridiculous. Cut it by half yesterday!

Second thing I would do is means test Social Security and Medicare. I'm not sure where the cutoff would be. That would have to be argued. But we all know it is completely stupid that Warren Buffet, Poppy Bush, Ross Perot, etc. get a check as a "safety net." I heard someone argue that Barack should refuse his presidential salary. I think that is a great idea considering that his book profits have him well fixed for life. I always thought it was fishy for a fiscal hawk like McCain to be getting a SS check, Service related disability check, Navy pension check, Senate salary, Medicare coverage and very soon a Senate pension check, while his wife is worth ten's of millions. The optics just suck wind.

The next thing to do would be mandate that the states can only get reinvested federal funds in proportion (relative to all other states) to the amount of federal taxes paid by their citizens and businessess. Here in Alabama we have very low state and local taxes because we get so much from the feds. No fair! Make the states carry their own weight and tax their citizens appropriately. No more New Yorkers and Californians paying my way. Those people have their own problems and priorities. Less burden on the US federal budget to carry us deadbeats. We need to pay our own way for our priorities.

I heard a great idea for the stimulus bill. Divide the total bill into 438 equal portions. If you think it needs cutting down, just tell us which portions of your district's share you would like to see eliminated.

liberals cutting spending

Chem-It would seem that the best place to start would be on a defense budget so bloated that we spend more annually than every other country in the world combined. Completely ridiculous. Cut it by half yesterday!

Wow.  Wanting to cut the defense budget by HALF in the middle of TWO WARS?  And liberals wonder why they get the reputation of not liking the military very much.

Second thing I would do is means test Social Security and Medicare.

In other words, completely destroy the pension aspect of Social Security and turn it entirely into a middle-class entitlement.  Presumably you also favor nationalized health care, which, over time, just like Social Security in your model, would turn into a means-tested middle-class entitlement.  I'm just wondering, is there anything in your political calculus that warns against individuals becoming too dependent on the state?

The next thing to do would be mandate that the states can only get reinvested federal funds in proportion (relative to all other states) to the amount of federal taxes paid by their citizens and businessess. Here in Alabama we have very low state and local taxes because we get so much from the feds. No fair! Make the states carry their own weight and tax their citizens appropriately.

Now that's an interesting proposition.  So let me see if I understand you correctly.  Let us suppose, for the sake of argument, that a particular state's budget is balanced (as most state constitutions require), but that it receives a disproportionate share of its revenue from the federal government.  You would advocate that the state raise its taxes anyway, even though the state governmnet doesn't need the money and the budget is balanced?  Would this new state tax revenue replace the disproportionate federal revenue, which would now go away?  If that's the case, then there is no need to force states to raise their taxes, which undermines the entire concept of federalism anyway.  Instead, the federal government can simply stop redistributing so much money; in other words, it can decentralize some of its power.  So states can decide how they want to make up the shortfall.  Maybe they don't want to raise taxes, maybe they'd rather forego some spending.  Or maybe they would rather generate more revenue by lowering taxes in other areas.

But you can't have it both ways: you can't believe in progressive taxes and centralization of power in DC, and then complain when tax revenue is redistributed from rich states to poor states.  One follows directly from the other.

I'm sick of my ignorance!

Chem-Please teach me how to make those nifty gray boxes of quotes.

I can't figure out the symbols up top and how to use them.

I will reply after you oblige me with a quick NextRight interface primer.

Thanks.

Blockquote

It's the giant double quotation marks in the top right side of the comment box.  At least that's how it appears in IE.  Highlight the text you want quoted and then click the Blockquote button.

Wow.  Wanting to cut the

Wow.  Wanting to cut the defense budget by HALF in the middle of TWO WARS?  And liberals wonder why they get the reputation of not liking the military very much.

I spend way more on my kid in college than I do on my kid in middle school. Doesn't mean I like one more than the other. Just a prudent allocation of resources in the current circumstance. Same as the military . As far as what our current defense spending is doing to our country, I will quote the great Walt "Pogo" Kelly "We have met the enemy, and he is us."

In other words, completely destroy the pension aspect of Social Security and turn it entirely into a middle-class entitlement. 

There is no pension aspect of SS. No one is paying to build up a fund to draw upon later. What we pay now goes to current retirees and disabled. It's always been that way. As it would have to be since the first group of recipients had no way of "paying into the system." SS is a social safety net to keep disabled and elderly folks out of poverty. If you are in no danger of being impoverished, you should not get a check.

I'm not sure if we agree or disagree on my third proposal. Given our history I know where the safe bet is on that one.: )

But what I was proposing is take the entire federal tax revenue stream and calculate what percentage of that came from Alabama. If it is 2%, then we only get 2% of any money appropriated for nationwide programs. Anything over our 2% would have to be an earmark specifically requested by our representatives.

Thanks for the blockquote lesson. I'm still not sure I got it right. I guess I'll know in a minute when I post this.

Doh!

So busy concentrating on my new block quote skills, I forgot to title my last post.

Also forgot to say that I'm not worried at all that people will become too dependent on the government. I am 100% dependent on the government for police protection, fire protection, roads, streetlights, parks, sanitation, sewers, and thats just the local stuff. The state and federal list would be longer.

My exwife explained it well to me when she was hired as the director of a very wealthy gated community. I asked what her job was going to be. She explained that everyone living inside the gate already paid county taxes for all manner of local government services. But being 95% Republicans, they would rather collect property owner fees that amounted to double what they already pay in local taxes. And privatize all the normal municipal services at a rate of about double what it would cost to have it done by the government workers who already do all the stuff she would now be responsible for sub-contracting to private companies. Brilliant!

This is where the conservative argument of "keep more of your money" falls apart. Just what portion of my family budget do you expect I would voluntarilly choose to pay for border security, air traffic control, national parks, etc.? And I'm a spendthrift liberal. I'm sure all the "individual liberty" conservatives would devote not one red cent to "the general welfare."

Yep.

And I'm a spendthrift liberal. I'm sure all the "individual liberty" conservatives would devote not one red cent to "the general welfare."

You're nearly right.  Take the federal budget line items for the military and the courts, divide by 300 million, and send me a bill for my share. I'd pay that much and not a penny more.  Same on the state and municipal level: take the line items for the actual useful functions of government (as opposed to the 90% of it which is rent-seeking horseshit, like public education), divide by the number of citizens, and send me a bill for my share. That's what I'd pay.

I don't give a good goddamn about "the general welfare". You all can die in a fire, for all I care.

 

 

and because you are shortsighted

you will die in a plague.

Not everything provides equal protection on a day by day basis -- some provide intermittent protection against collossal disasters (like, say, the military). However, try to explain to a conservative how we can quantify the damage to his health based on the general public's health.

Don't even get me started about Just in Time.

And the hilarious thing? All the folks who are all "I have my guns, i'll be fine" seem to have forgotten Argentina. Loners do not survive well using offensive weapons to defend themselves. too easy to pick off.

Which plague will that be?

Which plague will that be? The one which I'm immunized against?

"Public health" has as much to do with the government as you have to do with making sense: nothing.

 

well, I'm not going to say that the government is

the absolute best way of doing it, because you can't prove a negative.

Yeah, the one that you're immunized against. Don't do you a lot of good when you've zombies at your door.[yes, this is a serious comment. there are several types of diseases that cause portions of extremities to fall off, and are quite contagious].

In all seriousness, it's likely to be a flu, and definitely something that you and the rest of the shot aren't going to have established immunity towards. The big folks don't get 100% matches, and sometimes they do pretty awfully bad.

which you'd know if you read fluwiki.

99% Rule, Again

n/t

what the hell are you talking about?

seriously. I can wait.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2004/may/16/health.books

you're welcome for the citation.

long incubation periods are a bitch.