Republicans Lose in Chasing out Specter

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to a statement he released this morning. "I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary. I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."

  Paying the political price for his support of President Barack Obama's Stimulus Plan, Specter trailed former Congressman Pat Toomey 41 - 27 percent in a Republican primary for the 2010 Senate race, with 28 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll at the end of March. In a move called a "decision [representing] the height of political self-preservation,” by Sen. John Cornyn. He went on to say, “[w]hile this presents a short-term disappointment, voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled Democrat super-majority versus the system of checks-and-balances that Americans deserve." The question is will a Pennsylvania electorate vote for a hard-line conservative after turning more and more blue over the past few election cycle?

The site has argued in the past why the Republicans need to hold on to moderates, even extreme ones like Specter. If you look at congressional records objectively you can see why. Democratic Sens. Nelson, Bayh and Lieberman have been given a lot of praise for their somewhat conservative stands over the years; and I would venture to guess the Republicans would be glad to have any of them switch parties and join the Republican ranks. In fact in 2008 many did lobby Lieberman to cross over. Ironically, Specter himself was quoted as being all for the Lieberman switch.

  “I would like to see him vote with Republicans in September,” Specter said. “He’s practically there. That would have the consequence of giving us a Republican Senate.”

Now, if Republicans are so eager to celebrate centrist Democrats who agree with them some of the time, why are they so unwilling to hold onto centrist Republicans who agree with them most of the time? According to The Political Guide, since 1990, Arlen Specter has voted with the majority of his party 72.9% of the time and missed only 2.8% of the votes. In all likelihood PA is going to elect a Democrat in 2010 and the Republican party will miss out on those potential votes.

Believe me, I am no big fan of Specter and others like him who often cross the aisle and vote for things like the recent stimulus bill. However, I'd rather have them then lose a seat to the other side.  For more center-right news and views see The Rockefeller Republican.

 

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Comments

Toomey Has No Chance

Liberal ToddLuvsLounging says:

The Quinnipiac clearly shows why Specter would rather run as a Democrat than a Republican in PA:

Voters approve 52 - 33 percent of the job Specter is doing, with a 71 - 16 percent positive score from Democrats and a 41 - 37 percent boost from independent voters, off-setting a 52 - 36 percent disapproval from Republicans. This is Specter's highest approval among Democrats and lowest approval among Republicans since Quinnipiac University began polling Pennsylvania in 2002.

I don't recall another politician so popular with the other party's voters and at the same time so unpopular with his/her own party. If Specter wins the Dem nomination and the economy doesn't crater further, then Spector is re-elected with numbers like that.

Tommey = Santorum

Tommey will lose worse than Santorum did, but then again Rick Santorum was actually the incumbent.  I'm smelling a Ted Strickland/Ken Blackwell type blowout here where Tommey doesn't even register 40%.  Arlen Specter is perfectly suited to the sensabilites to Pennsylvania voters and always has been.  It just so happens he needs to be a Democrat now.  I wonder if this causes another round of defections amongst Pennsylvania Republicans to switch to Democrats.

Larison on Tommey

I though Daniel Larison's thoughts were right on the money:

Specter’s switch pretty well clears the way for Toomey to win the GOP nomination without much difficulty, so Toomey will have the chance to test his proposition that Pennsylvanians don’t want Arlen Specter’s brand of politics on a grand scale in the general election. The result of that contest will confirm what some of us have been saying for a while: of all the places to try to vindicate support for Club for Growth economic policy and the Iraq war, Pennsylvania is one of the worst places imaginable. If one had wanted to hasten the day when Club for Growth-style economic conservatism appeared to be nothing but a liability for the GOP, one could not have put together a better scenario than this one.