NRSC

So, there must have been some beltway reality checks. Or the instantaneous nature of internet communication made the country’s mood glaringly important in helping them along with their ponderous decision rendering process. i.e. The RNC, the NRSC, and every Republican leader they could reach got goosed in the butt by a lot of very angry people. In any case, the Conservative Patriots went nuts when they heard that Christine O’Donnell wasn’t just being ignored by the self-appointed elites, she was being actively opposed and attacked by some of the establishment types.

Karl Rove and Christine O'Donnell

Ok, so we have our own party actively working to ensure that the elected candidate, the choice of the people, doesn’t win in November. What?!! They have the unmitigated temerity to foist off their venomous pronouncements as the will of the party membership.

Speaking of venom… hey Karl, what the heck did Christine ever do to you? Karl Rove went off on an establishment rant against Christine O’Donnell that had many wondering if he’d slipped a cranial gasket and was ready for the gingko biloba crowd. I’m still wondering what that was all about.

Let’s examine what’s happening. The ‘establishment’ has brought the party, and by extension us as Americans, along the disastrous path the party took under George Bush. They have the gall to pronounce to us? We hold the biggest winning formula the Republicans have had since Ronaldus Maximus.

We, as the Patriot Movement, have welded together a vast cross section of people who have but one identity, that of American. And only one goal, that of restoring the Constitutional Republic of the United States of America. One thing is for sure, the Republican establishment has put itself directly in the line of fire of a whole bunch of Tea Party types with no reason to hold hands and sing kumbaya.

The Conservative Patriot movement is changing the face of American politics. It is the tsunami which is sweeping all before it. Get used to it. We’re here and we’re not going away.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

Permit me a brief smirk, folks. I really did see this coming… of course, a little prayer never hurts either. The Delaware Republican primary was about as much of an upset as you could ever want. The Patriot Movement flexed its muscles again and propelled Christine O’Donnell to victory over veteran politico Mike Castle. O’Donnell took an early lead and never looked back.

Since we were just talking about ‘the establishment’ yesterday, watching the contortions of the Delaware State Republican Party and the RNC in the aftermath of the O’Donnell victory was both instructive and entertaining. The party elites stayed in character, and one low-level apparatchik bleated that the national party would “send no money to O’Donnell”. This is unfortunate… it just tells us in the Patriot Movement that the Republican Party machinery is still stuck back somewhere in the inglorious past.

In the face of all the evidence in front of them that the Patriot Movement is indeed speaking with the voice of the American people, the Republican elites continue to look down their noses and make disparaging noises. The fact is that that Conservative American Patriots cleaned your clocks. Yeah… the Tea Party… those ignorant rubes you’ve been snickering about at your effete little watering holes in the beltway.

Christine O’Donnell had scarcely been declared as the winner when the establishment knives were out saying that she couldn’t possibly win a national contest. My syndicates won’t let me print the expletives running through my head right now. I think that Christine O’Donnell can win that contest in November. Not only that, but I think she stands a damned good chance at it.

The Conservative message is beginning to resonate with some disillusioned Democrats too. Want another example of the absolute disconnect between the Republican elites and the people who make up the Republican electorate? I just got word, at the time of writing this, that the NRSC (the National Republican Senatorial Committee) has stated they won’t support the choice of the people! Need I say more?

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

Yesterday, I wrote about establishment Republicans and their apparent opposition to all things Tea Party. Just who the heck are these people?

John Cornyn

We have just had a key election in Alaska. Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski went down in defeat to Joe Miller in the Senate primary. Joe Miller was the Conservative ‘Tea Party’ candidate. The head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee flew to Alaska to aid Lisa Murkowski with the primary. John Cornyn (R), Junior Senator from Texas, had said that his committee will observe strict neutrality.

According to Miller’s campaign there are still national operatives in the state, and they suspected an effort to sway the election results in favor of Murkowski. There were still some 1,500 absentee votes yet to be counted.

According to Tea Party activists in Cornyn’s home state of Texas, protests were held at all of Cornyn’s offices to make it clear that they did not want the GOP or the NRSC interfering with Alaska’s primary race. There has been a pattern of interference, back-room deals and underhanded tactics where Conservative Patriots and their candidates have been concerned.

The people are speaking their choices. There is a Conservative tsunami just over the horizon. If the RNC and the NRSC think that we will stand still for more of what we got from them when they were last in power, they have another think a- comin’.

The National Republican Party has been an abject failure. We need only to look around us to see the result of that. It was the irresponsible actions of the (then) majority party under George Bush that are directly responsible for Barack Hussein Obama being in office.

There are more primaries coming up soon. Delaware’s Republican primary is on Sept 14. The Tea Party Express has endorsed strong Conservative Christine O’Donnell over US Representative Mike Castle, the choice of the RNC and NRSC. It’s like this folks… Mike Castle is one of the biggest RINOs in Washington. This dude has been in virtual lockstep with Barack Obama’s agenda from the beginning. He needs to be defeated and it looks very much like he will be.

Message to the RNC. Keep it up and you’ll see the destruction of your party. You’re under as much scrutiny as the DeMarxists are. You worked very hard to lose our trust. Now you’re going to have to work much harder to get it back. Backing RINOs isn’t a very good start.

Semper Vigilans, Semper Fidelis

© Skip MacLure 2010

No, we're not endorsing any of the winners of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, especially when the winner didn't show up to stump the South. 

Romney has his guys do it for him. What does that tell you about how far removed he'll be from "the people"?

REGARDLESS -- why are we voting for a guy who endorsed John McCain who lost the election to Obama?  

The results of the SRLC straw poll were essentially the same as those from CPAC 2010. Repeat losers need to bow out now, throw their full "stump-for-ya" support behind leaders and wholly focus on the enemy before they reduce themselves to crapping on conservative opposition for votes. 

This sort of fragmentation will affect the 2010 vote and the new leadership we'll be putting in Washington; division isn't what we need to drive us to 2010. 

Keeping these over-cooked politicians -- the whole tired cast of used-up characters, in fact -- tells the progressives and the moderates we're not fighting to win. It'll be business as usual. 

That being said, Perry spoke to us, not over us -- and although he was lowkey and spoke off-the-cuff, his words resonated with conservative truth. A no bull, uplifting speech, worthy of  a leader. 

He needed to be on that SRLC ballot. He's not afraid to speak fire to Obama.

See Perry's speech @ Tabitha Hale.

Then there's Pence. Just words: "Republicans won't rest until healthcare is repealed." That's not what Cornyn, head of NRSC, said . On more than one occassion.

See Pence's speech at Hot Air.

The Sienna poll of New York's 23rd Congressional district released Friday found Democrat Bill Owens pulling into the lead with 33 percent, followed by liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava at 29 and Conservative Party hopeful Doug Hoffman at 23. 

Combined, the Republican and Conservative lines lead the Democrat 52 to 33 percent. And in a normal election, that would be that -- maybe 95% of the time the Conservatives cross-endorse the Republican. 

Scozzafava's particularly egregious liberal record -- pro-card check and pro-stimulus -- rendered that impossible. And so we are faced with a center-right vote that's nearly evenly split, enabling a Democrat (who many believe to be more conservative than Scozzafava) to squeak by.

It is a simple, indisputable fact that the Republican and Conservative voters of NY-23 will have to rally around one candidate to prevent a Democratic pickup. And that candidate should be Conservative Republican Doug Hoffman.

Sadly, the RNC and NRCC are doubling down on a flawed candidate with little chance of generating any significant momentum in the last 16 days. In many ways, this should be a situation like Bernie Sanders' many elections in Vermont, or Joe Lieberman's election in 2006, where there should be no harm and no foul in supporting a viable, like-minded independent over a non-starting major party nominee. 

Instead, this looks set to go down as yet another misfire by DC Republicans, drying up the small donor base to the committees with a shortsighted "all Republicans are created equal" approach to supporting liberal Republicans when perfectly acceptable conservative alternatives exist. 

I'm not one to suggest that the party should go out of its way to anoint candidates who can't win in blue states. Rather, I am suggesting that there is a pragmatic case for the NRSC and NRCC to stay neutral in more primaries or support conservatives in a way that doesn't lose elections -- and makes it more likely that Mitch McConnell will prevail on the Senate floor more often. 

Take everyone's favorite example, the Florida Senate race. There is no doubting the fact -- even amongst conservatives -- that Charlie Crist is practically unbeatable in a general election. Let's peg his chances against Kendrick Meek at 95 percent. 

The problem is that Marco Rubio is no slouch in this department either. The polls I've seen have him up double digits over Meek. Assume that Rubio's chances in a general election are between 80 and 85 percent. 

Looking at electability only, Crist would still come out ahead. But that doesn't necessarily give Senate Republicans their best outcome. Notice I said Senate Republicans, not conservatives. 

Naturally, the national party is going to go for the "W" wherever it can in order to bolster its number of seats. And if this were the only thing that mattered, electability alone would be king. 

The problem, as we are finding out in the health care debate, is that it's not enough to have 60 Democrats to break a filibuster, or 41 Republicans to sustain one. How your members vote in that process matters to the outcome. In deciding which candidates to support, the national party committees -- not just activists -- should be looking at whether the candidates are likely to support leadership on key floor votes. If Rubio is just 10 or 15 percent better than Crist on key votes, Crist's electability advantage is nullified from the perspective of Leader McConnell and the Senate Republican Conference. 

To me, this could go either way given that Crist is not liberal in the way that Olympia Snowe is, and that his maverickness has always been more about staking out a particular brand in Florida than currying favor with a liberal electorate. But even so, the PR advantage of having a high-profile Hispanic conservative with a potential national career ahead of him tips the scale in Rubio's favor. 

The same would go in California. Carly Fiorina does not have a particularly strong electability advantage over Chuck DeVore, and her celebrity CEO past renders her vulnerable to rookie mistakes and greater scrutiny of her private sector activities. It would be one thing for the NRSC to support Fiorina if she were polling 10 to 15 points better than DeVore against Boxer, but she's not. 

In deciding whether to support conservatives like Hoffman, Rubio, and DeVore, there is a reasonable middle ground between craven winnerism and a kamikaze strategy that ignores electability. The committees should factor in adherence to core Republican principles (in addition to electability) because the job of a political party is not just to win elections, but to win votes on the floor. And though the impact of an errant member is much less in the House than it is in the Senate, Scozzafava's not-so-veiled threats to switch parties if she isn't treated nicely should render her completely unacceptable to Michael Steele and Pete Sessions, who should make it clear that they won't be blackmailed. 

There's a concept people in the suburban Northeast of mild prosperity are very familiar with

"Certified Pre-Owned"  

If one is a fan of pro or college sports around here , one is inundated with ads on YES and ESPN, as well as the network sports recap shows, beseeching one to buy a slightly driven and sterling condition Benz, Beemer or Lexus coming off lease.

I knew a guy who did this and got a Benz convertible quite cheap. Helped him get PI clients for his practice and was fun to drive on moonlit summer nights from Stone Harbor to Wildwood back in the day. He used the dough he saved to buy a house.

You get a value buying certified pre-owned--getting a luxury car for Nissan prices; but you realise that there's only so many miles left in the creampuff. Still, a good deal for the appearance concious. 

But I'm not sure this is a great political strategy. Nonetheless, the NRSC is looking almost exclusively at elder statesmen in their candidate recruitment.

This week Charlie Crist announced for the Florida senate seat he ran and lost for in 1998. Sure he's won a few times since for AG and Governor and he is quite popular, but Marco Rubio is the fresh face in this race.

Likewise, the NRSC first backed the 79 year old Arlen Specter and when he became Harry Reid;' headache, thought the answer was the 64 year old Tom Ridge; first elected to federal office in 1982.

We are running Roy Blunt in Missouri. He was first elected Secretary of State there in 1984. At that point his son Matt was 14. Matt's already been elected Governor and stepped down after a difficult term. Back to the Future?

The NRSC is likewise trying to get a near 70 something to run in DE (Mike Castle) and a 60 something is their favored candidate in CT ( Rob Simmons). OK, the blue state benches are somewhat thin, but there is a 42 year old candidate running in CT as well. (Sam Caligiuri)

It's not just the Senate, I recall seeing that the ageless Tommy Thompson may seek the Governorship again in Wisconsin, having first won it in 1986.

I'm not going to disparage any of these individual candidates. Each may well be the strongest possible candidate available in their state this year. The problem is that at a point when the party needs to introduce "new models"   the Beltway brain trust is trying to give our old reliables a tune-up, a detailing, and then send them off down the road.

We may win a few seats this year doing this, but we will find many of these folks retiring after a single term and have to hope we build a bench in the meantime. And when we are gasping for breath with younger voters, we are wasting a cycle by not promoting candidate who represent Generation X and Generation Y.

Lots of people buy Certified Pre-Owned. The problem is: almost all of them really wanted to buy a new model. What if the competition offers one at a reasonable price? 

The short answer is no. The “why not” is a little more complex. There will be some who will now be angry at Sen. Cornyn and the National Republican Senatorial Committee for backing him in the first place. Really? Keep in mind the RNC, NRSC and the NRCC are NOT issue driven organizations. They are member driven organizations with only ONE goal…majority status, that’s it, no other reason for being.

What is the relationship between these two stories from the Hill? Ted Stevens getting convicted of all counts for, in essence, corruption:

Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Senate Republican in history and patriarch of Alaska politics, was found guilty of all seven felony charges for making false statements.

John Ensign trying to blame John McCain for a disastrous Senate Republican showing:

Nevada Sen. John Ensign, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on Monday said John McCain’s presidential run is making Senate races “more difficult” for the GOP.

They reflect a delusionally out-of-touch Senate establishment. On the same day that Ensign's colleague starts the march off to prison, he is blaming the guy who tried to clean up his own party. Could this be more out of touch?

By the way.  What is the job of the NRSC? Torecruit candidates and raise money. We are mostly playing defense. John Kennedy was a good recruit, but we don't have anyone in Arkansas. But how did they do on fundraising? Not so hot: "DSCC doubles NRSC funddraisng ... Again." Or "DSCC crushes NRSC in fundraising."

How about the fact that Congressional Republicans just aren't that popular ... because we haven't changed our ways? The numbers demonstrate abject failure. After all, we have 27% approval, while the Dems have 34%. Oh yeah. And Bush is in the single digits, along with right-track/wrong-track. And we've had 9 straight months of job loss.

Maybe the problem is us. The lesson of this election for Republicans cannot be about John McCain, although he has his faults. It has to be about the establishment and us. Our leaders have lead us astray. It is probably time to find new leaders. Rank and file Republicans get that. That's why the last two guys standing were the farthest from the establishment: John McCain and Mike Huckabee.

Until the establishment in Congress and party accept that they are part of the problem, we are just going to continue to lose more seats and continue to destroy our party and our movement. McCain isn't doing that.

Note: in the first version, I said "indicted" not "convicted" because I desperately need an editor.

I put this comment up in response to Patrick's article. I felt it should also be a post.  Here is my take on the Ogo signature story.

UPDATE: EaBo Clipper from Red Mass Group responds saying Ogonowski should be fine.

Not good, if it pans out:

When the deadline for certification passed yesterday, Jim Ogonowski, the Republican leadership's choice to challenge US Senator John F. Kerry, was 82 signatures short of qualifying for the GOP primary ballot, according to the state's central voter registry.

But Ogonowski's campaign aides contend there are enough certified signatures at various town offices around the state not filed yet on the computerized registry to put him across the 10,000 threshold. ...

Even if Ogonowski does get the 82 signatures he needs, his fight probably is not over.

Election specialists say he will not have the needed cushion of extra signatures to insulate himself from legal challenges.

Ogonowski's only primary opponent, Jeff Beatty, is expected to challenge the validity of his signatures before the ballot law commission.

I like Ogonowski. I worked with a coalition of bloggers to raise $20,000 for his MA-5 special campaign last fall. Back then, he had a kick-butt volunteer operation and a ton of grassroots energy. It's at least a little mystifying that this is such a close call. Stuff like ballot access should not be a close call, not for a guy who's already on the air.

Read on.