2008 campaign

Expanding the youth vote: myth or reality?

Submitted by Jon Henke on Sat, 11/15/2008 - 14:26

in

Chris Cilliza argues there were 5 myths about the 2008 election. However, on #2, I'm not sure the data necessarily supports his conclusion...

2. A wave of black voters and young people was the key to Obama's victory.

Afraid not. ... Exit polling suggests that there was no statistically significant increase in voting among either group. Black voters made up 11 percent of the electorate in 2004 and 13 percent in 2008, while young voters comprised 17 percent of all voters in 2004 and 18 percent four years later.

The surge in young and African American voters is not entirely the stuff of myth, however. Although their percentages as a portion of the electorate didn't increase measurably, Obama did seven points better among black voters than Sen. John F. Kerry did in 2004 and scored a 13-point improvement over Kerry's total among young voters.

The flat total turnout, but higher margin of victory among young voters could tell us one of two things.

The wave was a myth: The youth vote was the same, but they swung to Obama. The composition changed by persuasion.

The wave was a reality: The youth vote likely to vote for McCain stayed home, while a wave of new young voters turned out for Obama. The composition changed by differences in enthusiasm, ground game and coalition expansion.

If #2 is correct, it implies these Obama voters are not persuadable swing voters, but a new generation of likely Democratic voters. That will be a far harder barrier for Republicans to overcome in the long term.

General Wesley Clark, then and now.

Submitted by Jon Henke on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 13:55

in

In light of the furor over Gen. Wesley Clark arguing that "getting shot down is [not] a qualification to be president" (true, I suppose, but nobody is arguing that it is, in itself, the qualification) and that John McCain is "untested and untried" (um...good luck with that line of attack, guys) - and following up on Bill Beutler's post about the Left doing a 180 on the merits of attacking a candidate's military service, let me point out what Gen. Wesley Clark was saying about the importance of a candidate's military service just four years ago....

John Kerry has heard the thump of enemy mortars. He's seen the flash of the tracers. He's lived the values of service and sacrifice. In the Navy, as a prosecutor, as a senator, he proved his physical courage under fire. And he's proved his moral courage too.

John Kerry fought a war, and I respect him for that. And he came home to fight a peace. And I respect him for that, too.

John Kerry's combination of physical courage and moral values is my definition of what we need as Americans in our commander in chief. [...]

John Kerry is a man who in time of war can lead us as a warrior [...]

He has the moral courage born in battle...

Funny, Wes Clark seemed to think military service was an important qualification for a US Senator without executive experience 4 years ago.