Elizabeth Dole

Two days ago, I floated a theory about the awful string of special elections this spring. The specials in IL-14, LA-6, and MS-1 all followed Democratic primaries in those states, while the Democratic nominating contest was going on. Meanwhile, special elections in OH-5, MA-5, and IN-7, ending in mid-February, yielded results well within expectations with slight boomlets for the Republican candidates. All of these primaries occurred well before Democrats had been primed to vote in the Presidential primary in those states.

This theory is bolstered by this chart posted on Open Left a month back:

Promoted by Patrick.

Yesterday, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza highlighted Elizabeth Dole and Mitch McConnell’s campaign advertising strategies, and the “vote for the incumbent who brings you goodies” message they’ve used in their early tv spots. 

They're making a huge strategic mistake.  Both candidates are firmly identifying themselves as part of Washington and part of the problem.  Jim Inhofe’s new ad on the other hand, is a strong example of how an incumbent should highlight their accomplishments without appearing too “Washington.”   (Full disclosure, I work for a media firm that didn’t produce any of these spots, even the one I like.)  

Here are the three ads Cilizza highlights: