NY23: Few thoughts

 New York's 23rd Cong. District has really changed over the years, and if Hoffman wins, I think that gives it a great deal of significance.

I grew up in St. Lawrence County, and riding the school bus 50 years ago, every other stop was at a small farm. The main street in the small city near me really was a main street filled with many small merchants.

It's nothing like that now: All the small farms are gone, or nearly so, replaced by a few large factory type farms. Nearly all the small merchants are gone (largely killed by state funded urban renewal) and replaced by a Wal Mart.

What was once a reliable Republican district has trended Democratic. When you hear lots of talk based on the "historic" Republican 23rd, don't buy it. It went for Obama by several percentage points in 2008. My own county, St. Lawrence, gave Obama a victory by some 6,000 votes out of about 38,000 cast. In a state assembly race, with neither candidate an incumbent, the Democrat won overwhelmingly.

The GOP here, like elsewhere in the state, is nonexistent. The Democrats have developed a good organization that turns out the vote. An economy based on small farmers and small merchants has been replaced by government jobs, with teaching and prison jobs the most coveted in the area.

My point is that if Hoffman wins, it's not just a conservative district voting true to type. It's a meaningful event, signaling a real disenchantment with Obama policies and politics. A recent PPP poll notes that Hoffman has a big lead over Owens head to head. I'm hoping that's the case, but I want to see it first.

Tim