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Observations from NY20

Submitted by tomllewis on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 14:50
in

I'm Jim Tedisco's Finance Chairman and began writing down some of my observations and impressions of the March 31 Special Election in NY. If you didn't know there was a race, there's no point in reading beyond this paragraph.

If there's any interest, I plan to make other posts on a number of different aspects of the campaign.

Below are the verbatem notes I wrote the morning of March 31.

Here we are, Election Day.

It's been quite a ride that started on January 27th, when Jim Tedisco asked if I'd be his Finance Chairman. I was surprised by the call, given that I'd never raised money beyond Saratoga County (one of the 10 counties in the 20th CD) and I didn't know if I'd be able to meet his expectations.

Well, the team raised over $1,500,000. So I guess we did pretty good, considering that it was an 8 week campaign. I'll do a more in depth analysis later, when I have more perspective looking back and see things a little clearer. But the short version is this:

Howard Becker, the Finance Director, did an excellent job driving the whole team (Melissa Schwarz, Ali Almour from NRCC, and me). He's been with Jim for over 25 years and was the chief fund raiser for RACC (Republican Assembly Campaign Committee) for the past 3 years, when Jim became the Minority Leader. He got to know most of the State's major Republican supporters and knew who to ask and schedule fund raising events.

My role, besides raising money from Saratoga County (1/3 of the District), or anyone I knew, was to coordinate with Finance Chairs from each County to hold events. I met some great people as well as some who said they'd do x, y and z... and ..... didn't. Of course, that happens with any organization.

The fun part was how the race became National in many respects. A large part of the money raised came from Wash DC - both from PACS and members of Congress. They saw that winning the first 2009 election could be viewed as a referendum on Obama and Pelosi. And that's why over $165,000 was raised on the Internet. We'll never be able to do that again when we're just one of 435 congressional races.

I'll post the breakdown in future posts, but a rough number is: about 80% of the Internet money raised was from outside NY20, and more than 60% from out of the State.

I'll also write about my experiences at CPAC, where I met some very smart people who were all true believers.

As to the race. My gut says it can go either way. I DO expect to win tonight, but my gut hasn't always been right every time.

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Desire for a referendum on Obama & Pelosi made money pour in

Submitted by NextRightNando on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 18:13.

So, the anticipation of "a referendum on Obama and Pelosi" made money pour in from the Right for a race consisting of:

  1. an open seat
  2. in a district wherein the Republicans hold a >70K advantage in registrations
  3. between a major state GOP figure vs. unkown
  4. NRCC spending of $800,000 compared to $575,000 for the DCCC.

And the result was a statistical tie, compared to last fall's presidential vote of 51% Obama/48% McCain for this district.

You've improved your position by 1%. In a Republican district.

Obama and Pelosi must be terrified.

money pouring in

Submitted by tomllewis on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 19:07.

Dear NRN, It's always interesting how people see the same thing differently. From my point of view:

1. it was an open seat

2. you seem fixated on the 70k registration advantage. The very point of my other post was that MY district has been moving more to the left for the past 20 years. I don't know where you live, but I live in Saratoga Springs and have seen countless #'s of Democrats elected here. When I became GOP chair in 1990 everyone told me all about the 2 to 1 regsitartion advantage I inherited. Then in 1992 Clinton won by 11 pionts. By the time Clinton increased his margin to 14 points I figured out that PEOPLE (especially Republicans) do not always vote their registration. 98 - Schumer won. 2000 - Gore by 11 points. 2004 - Kerry by 14 points. And still, Saratoga Springs has a huge Republican registration advatage.... but they don't VOTE Republican.

3. BECAUSE, as you point out, it was a well known figure against an unknown proves my point - that the registration advantage, as is continually pointed out, means little in my part of NY.

4. Money is less important in winning races than most seem to think. 5 months ago the Republican candidate spent $6 million... and got 38% of the vote. So money & this great 70k advantage meant nothing.

As for me, I had fun raising it for a man I believe in.

Thank you for your thoughts though. I always like hearing another opinion.

Is this not a picture of a district that tends to vote R?

Submitted by NextRightNando on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 19:12.

The data below paints  a picture of a district that tends to vote Republican - the reason your 70K advantage in voter registration and all your fundraising meant nothing is the unpopularity of your message. Your self-proclaimed referendum on Obama and Pelosi failed.

Congressional races in NY-20. 

  • 2008
  • D 61.8
  • R 38.2
  • 2006
  • D 53.1
  • R 46.9
  • 2004
  • R 65.8
  • D 33.7
  • 2002
  • R 73.3
  • D 24.0
  • 2000
  • R 57.6
  • D 40.1
  • 1998
  • R 58.3
  • D 38.8
  • 1996
  • R 57.1
  • D 37.6

 

partial picture

Submitted by tomllewis on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 19:43.

You're selectively showing only the Congressional races and dismissing my original claim that the district has been trending to the left for years. There was a time, in the 60s - the 80s when it WAS  a Republican stronghold. 

While the Democrat Party endorsed weak candidates in 2000, 02 & 04, Gillibrand was a very strong candidate who a large portion of those great 70k Republicans were comfortable crossing party lines. 

As to the "fundraising & the unpopoularity of our message" that did us no good, we gained 12 points in from 5 months ago.

Chances are, NRN, that neither of us will change our minds. I wish you well.

 

Tom, he posted the same nonsense last night

Submitted by Ironman on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 20:01.

And he did it again even after I told him Sweeney's hapless pre-Kirsten opponents usually raised about $20K.

Now, I think one can tell I am no troll, but the problem a lot of Republicans have is Tedisco started the race @50% and ended the race @50%.  Yes, Murphy was a top tier candidate and Obama and Gillibrand were assets in the present environment. But there has to be some honest reflection in the Tedisco camp about why he couldn't pull in the extra couple of points early to change the dynamics of the race.

Much of what we lost in the last couple of cycles resembles NY 20 and we need to learn what worked, and what didn't

Jim closed very strong. But we can't make "find two hundred night shift voters between midnight and when the polls open" a standard campaign strategy, can we?  

 

  

the same page

Submitted by tomllewis on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 20:28.

We're very much on the same page. 

I’m very new to blogging and need to measure this landscape better before I begin publically criticizing a campaign that I was a part of. I may venture into more candid observations after all the votes are counted. That said, again, I agree with everything you wrote. 

As to our friend NRN, I rarely argue with people who are always convinced they are right.

I expressed some private frustrations about the campaign

Submitted by Ironman on Thu, 04/02/2009 - 20:48.

to my friends and allies, but I was gonna be dammed if I left "bulletin board" material on a blog that would have been used to aid the Murphy campaign before the polls closed.

My wife is from Troy, BTW, and my best friend from HS is a Siena grad; so I'm pretty well versed in the Capital District. For example, I "get" the Neil Golub ad.