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Going Galt - Medical Division
I know the Left likes to ridicule anyone who mentions Ayn Rand or Atlas Shrugged. They especially like it when conservatives or Republicans say something about "Going Galt".
It seems to me that one reason for this is a (deliberate?) misunderstanding of what we -- or at least, I -- mean when we say that.
By "Going Galt", it seems to me, we (mostly) mean that someone will not take that next step, make that investment of time, effort, thought, or money, to make their mark in the world and make a difference.
Like Rand's great philosopher Hugh Akston who became a short order cook in a roadside diner, rather than using abilities to their utmost, someone who "goes Galt" might simply choose to do something else, rather than take the extreme Galt/Wyatt/Mulligan option of completely removing themselves from the reach of the looters and the moochers.
In that light, I think Obamacare is going to cause us more problems than many have been imagining. . . .
I have heard from a surgeon whom I trust and respect (though I don't know his source for this information) that much more than half of all surgeons are 55 or older.
Given the basic premise that people do things based on the incentives involved, and given the further premise that Obamacare (or, if it fails, the next incarnation of it) will reduce the financial and professional incentives to become a doctor, my friend believes strongly that we will be in for medical rationing simply because we will not be able to find enough doctors, regardless of what happens due to gov't bureaucratic manipulations.
My friend spent 14 years -- FOURTEEN YEARS -- after college training to become a doctor, then surgeon, then getting his specialty skills.
What makes people think that we will be able to find "volunteers" to go through such a rigorous and lengthy program, all the while incurring massive amounts of debt for the cost of their schooling and training, just so that they can be asked to work 36-hour shifts* for whatever salary a bureaucrat determines they are worth?
My friend loves his work. He does it for the satisfaction he gets from it. (Now.) But when asked if he would have gone through everything he went through solely for the satisfaction of the job, he says no. The potential to make a good living for himself and his family was definitely part of the attraction to the career choice in the first place.
There are other jobs he could have loved and been accomplished in performing, while paying well. Plus they would have afforded him much more time to spend with his family as his children grew up, rather than having to spend significant portions of not just days but nights as well away from home and on call.
The point I want to leave you with is that we can expect to lose men such as him from the medical profession if we insist on making them gov't cogs rather than free actors, capable of making what they can in a market which rewards them for their dedication, efforts, sacrifices, and skills.
Beware what you wish for, Obamacare supporters. You might just get it . . . and then the supply of producers whose efforts you have appropriated will dry up, relieving you of the burden of looting them.
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* Yes, I know the 24+ hour shifts don't last forever. And that they are concentrated in the early years of training, but does that really make anyone think that people will jump at the chance to perform such arduous tasks for the pittance the DC paper pushers are willing to fork out? Really?


Comments
In my experience, it has nothing to do with the money
I had several pre-med friends in college and have several friends/acquaintance now who are doctors, and in my experience, they don't do it for the money; in the UK, home of socialized medicine, applicants still outnumber places in med school 2 to 1.
Also, the whole "Galt" thing - it is a stupid idea that deserves all the mockery it gets. You define it as "someone will not take that next step, make that investment of time, effort, thought, or money, to make their mark in the world and make a difference". In other words - cutting off their own nose to spite their face. OK, so you are feeling petulant and therefore are not going to expand your business or whatever. Problem is, you are leaving a market niche unfilled and someone who is less self satisfied than you will move into that space instead.
Do you believe that economic
Do you believe that economic incentives mean nothing? That you can change the possible payoff for something -- anything -- and expect the situation to remain the same (especially over time)?
Do you have a source for your claim about the number of applicants to med schools in the UK? (At least I admitted that I did not know the source of my friend's claim. See below for my discovery about your claim . . . .)
Also, do you have any info about trends in UK applications? More or less than before the gov't took over? Are there any qualitative studies that say these applicants are as good as they were before?
U.S. med school applications dipped sharply in the US from 1996 to 2002 -- from 47k to 33k, an almost 40% drop. They then rose by 3.4% from 2003 to 2003. Yippee.
By 2008, we are still 5000 behind the numbers from more than a decade ago and saw a new decline from 2007 to 2008.
This page shows numbers of applicants from 1997 to 2008 to support my claims.
In the UK, numbers of applicants to spot fell from 2.11 in 1995 to 1.55 in 2000. (source; I can't find more recent numbers. Can you?)*
The points is not really whether or not individual years goup or down . . . or even if a more than a decade is lost in decreased numbers.
The point is that economic incentive DO matter, regardless of whether you wish they did or not.
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* BTW, they don't source them well but Wikipedia says that Brazil has a 100+ to 1 applicant to spot ratio. Bangladesh? 78 to 1. India? 15 to 1. If these numbers are anywhere close to right, suddenly 2 to 1 doesn't sound so good. . . . .
If you are opening a Subway franchise, yes, it is all
about economic incentives. If your dream is to become a doctor, there are a lot of other things that come into play.
The Mayo Clinic has an official policy of setting doctor's salaries at around the 75th percentile of the going market rate; and the salary is fixed and does not depend on the number of patients seen or procedures performed. And it is in Rochester, MN as well, one of the dullest places on earth. So why do so many great doctors want to go there instead of New York or Dallas or LA where they could be in the 100th percentile?
Where is the economic theory that explains the variation in med school applications that you report?
Economics Matters Whether you Want it to or Not
First, yes, I did notice that you ignored all my questions. Why is that?
I never said that money is the sole reason people go into medicine. I pointed out that your idea that economic incentives do not matter (QUOTE: "they don't do it for the money") is false.
The fact that per space applicant ratios vary can be attributed to many things, not the least of which is the possibility of being financially rewarded for what is a very hard profession to become established in and do well in.
You seem to think that because some people are amenable to the idea of receiving a fixed salary, it is ok to force everyone to do the same.
Imagine if someone told a highly skilled athlete -- one of the best in the world at what he does and worth millions in gate receipts, merchandising, etc. to the owner of the club he plays for -- that, because someone in the league was willing to work for the league minimum, he must do so as well.
Some people might still choose to put in the literally tens of thousands of hours it takes to be a top athlete. Maybe they would do it for ego, or from a drive to prove they are better than everyone else, who knows . . . .
For you to pretend that -- because some people would still do this -- there would be no deleterious affect on the overall pool of people willing to undertake such rigorous efforts is denying a basic fact of life.
You might wish it were true that potential financial reward did not affect people's choices, but that is a fantasy world which does not exist.
As for explaining the differences in applications, even though numbers rose from 2003-2007, so have the number of people in school. Therefore, as a constant percent of the number of people in school, finding the ratio of the higher number of people graduating from school now to the number of applicants now still yields a lower ratio than the smaller graduating population v. applicants in 1993. Simply put, we are still not at the level from 1993 despite a rise in the number of potential applicants over the past 15 years.
If you graph the percent of actual applicants to number of potential applicants, you'd see a downward trend over the years.
Seems to me that this is perfectly consistent with fewer people applying based on fears of lower expected returns on investment of time and effort.
Additionally, fears of less freedom to work as they wish, a larger idea which incorporates the fear of being forced to work for less than they are worth on the open market, could be influencing these numbers.
Now would you like to try and answer my questions or do you want to simply continue making general statements without reference to accepted economic theories or numbers and facts backed up by referenced sources?
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