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Independants are moving to the opposition party.

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 02:46

http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/18/dems-finally-notice-flight-of-inde...

Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.

Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.

Since then, however, a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama’s agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.

A Gallup Poll released last week offered a disturbing glimpse about the state of play: just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year. In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa.

Looks like the economy is going to be a key issue.

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The numbers in this years'

Submitted by classicliberal2 on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 02:57.

The numbers in this years' sparsely attended elections are meaningless. "Independent" is a catch-all category, and right now, it's trending right because so many conservative Republicans, too ashamed to admit the're conservative Republicans (party identification has been plummeting all year), are identifying themselves, instead, as "independents."

That'll work to keep the wool over ones eyes

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 11:10.

n/t

Stats Guru Nate Silver explains:

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 11:48.

 

Independent Voters and Empty Explanations

Too often in "mainstream" political analysis, once it is pointed out that independents have swung in one or another direction, the analysis stops. The pundit inserts his own opinion about what caused the independent vote to shift ("Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending", says the Washington Post), without citing any evidence. It's a neat trick, and someone who isn't paying attention is liable to conclude that the pundit has actually said something interesting.

Come out of your cocoon, and learn something new.

Yes the reasons are blurred and diverse.

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 12:59.

And we are dealing with individuals. One can give many reasons for the actions of shifts in movements ... 30% because of x, 20% because of y, 5% because of z.

I think it is fair to say they are moving to the opposition party. As opposed to saying they are moving to the right, conservative party, or libertarian party. They are not "joining" or becoming part of any of the established parties in opposition and even more they may also be in opposition to some of the ideals of those who are also opposed to those in power today ... one might infer from the last election that they do not support a McCain for president.

Best one can say is they are a mission field of open minded people who are willing to listen to alternative solutions.