The list (not NY23 districts)

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 12:20

District Representative PVI

ND-AL	Pomeroy, Earl	R+10
WV-01	Mollohan, Alan	R+9
AR-01	Berry, Marion	R+8
IN-08	Ellsworth, Brad	R+8
PA-10	Carney, Chris	R+8
OH-18	Space, Zach	R+7
SC-05	Spratt, John	R+7
AZ-01	Kirkpatrick, Ann	R+6
IN-09	Hill, Baron	R+6
WV-03	Rahall, Nick	R+6
AR-02	Snyder, Vic	R+5
AZ-05	Mitchell, Harry	R+5
CO-03	Salazar, John	R+5
VA-05	Perriello, Tom	R+5
AZ-08	Giffords, Gabby	R+4
TX-23	Rodriguez, Ciro	R+4
KS-03	Moore, Dennis	R+3
MI-01	Stupak, Bart	R+3
NY-19	Hall, John	R+3
PA-03	Dahlkemper, Kathleen	R+3
FL-08	Grayson, Alan	R+2
IN-02	Donnelly, Joe	R+2
MI-07	Schauer, Mark	R+2
NC-02	Etheridge, Bob	R+2
NY-24	Arcuri, Mike	R+2
OH-06	Wilson, Charlie	R+2
TX-27	Ortiz, Solomon	R+2
WI-08	Kagen, Steve	R+2
CA-11	McNerney, Jerry	R+1
IL-08	Bean, Melissa	R+1
IL-11	Halvorson, Debbie	R+1
IL-14	Foster, Bill	R+1
MN-01	Walz, Tim	R+1
NY-23	Owens, Bill	R+1
PA-12	Murtha, John	R+1
NH-01	Shea-Porter, Carol	R+0
NY-01	Bishop, Timothy	R+0
TX-28	Cuellar, Henry	R+0

Hat tip to http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably_flip/2009/11/the-na-na-na-na-hey-he... who picked the polling data from http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/11/9/802293/-The-Dems-Who-Cast-th... who did not hat iip the actual polling source - assumed Democratic polling done by the party, in which case they are not interested in getting a hat tip.

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Wayne from Jeremiah Films's blog

Comments

OK, I'll go first

Submitted by John Smith on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 12:50.

OK, I'll go first. Here is my guess: the first column looks like House districts, the third column is the Cook #, and I think the names in the middle are all Democrats, so this is a list of Democratic members of the House in conservative districts. However, a number of "Blue Dogs" are conspicuously absent. So it isn't a comprehensive list. So it must be a subset. Based on what criteria? Given the timing, I'll guess it is a list of Democratic members of the House who are in a conservative district and who voted for the HCR bill on Saturday. That is my final answer. How did I do?

Might be helpful to include such information in the post itself in the future. As well as some indication of why you think people might be interested in such a list.

LOL

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:16.

He just posted the chart from a frontpage kos diary The Dems Who Cast the Toughest Votes, without the commentary.

Here's "The list - part 2" for ya (call it whatever you want)

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:26.

From a rec'ed kos diary, that expands on the list you posted:

I took DavidNYC's list and narrowed it down: who were the House Dems in R-leaning districts who voted for the House health care reform bill and against the pro-life Stupak-Pitts amendment?

These courageous Democrats:

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick, Ann R+6 AZ-05 Mitchell, Harry R+5 AZ-08 Giffords, Gabby R+4 KS-03 Moore, Dennis R+3 NY-19 Hall, John R+3 FL-08 Grayson, Alan R+2 MI-07 Schauer, Mark R+2 NY-24 Arcuri, Mike R+2 WI-08 Kagen, Steve R+2 CA-11 McNerney, Jerry R+1 IL-08 Bean, Melissa R+1 IL-11 Halvorson, Debbie R+1 IL-14 Foster, Bill R+1 MN-01 Walz, Tim R+1 NY-23 Owens, Bill R+1 NH-01 Shea-Porter, Carol R+0 NY-01 Bishop, Timothy R+0

it isn't a comprehensive list

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:29.

Sorry, for not providing details, These are democrat districts that are in trouble - I am not the source of the list - My first thoughts are that it is not long enough. The source is from Polls ran by Democrats.

I see names like Murtha, John and Grayson, Alan ... they have made statements which some would consider trying to demonize the right and or the military ... there statements have not been forgotten ... and they are not districts that A Hoffman would be able to get elected in.

I do not know how the 2009 elections are going to play out. Many people want to run moderate Republicans. Looking at the list moderate Republicans may very likely end up with many seats in 2010 - I am not making any judgements about what I see the realities in 2009-2010 looking like. I have no arguement that a moderate republician would not be better than Murtha. I just wish Pelosi was on the list.

This site ain't Free Republic, Red State or Hot Air

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:36.

You won't get banned for providing the link to a liberal blog which is the source of your material. If not link, at least acknowledge the source in your post.

Hat tip to suitablyflip

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:43.

http://www.suitablyflip.com/suitably_flip/2009/11/the-na-na-na-na-hey-he...

You need to post/add that to your blog entry

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 14:08.

What happens if someone reads your blog entry and post "the list" on his site giving credit to your blog at the next right? You can't expect readers of another blog to go through the comments on a linked article. Do you like taking false credit, just as you don't give credit forthright to someone else's research/hard work?

The proper thing to do is acknowledge(if not link) the original source and hat tip(and link) to the source where you first found it. And do that in your main post, not in a comment.

Eh?

Submitted by John Smith on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:36.

The source is from Polls ran by Democrats.

What does that mean?

These are democrat districts that are in trouble

No, I'm pretty sure they are not - at least, not all of them. For example, the Republicans cannot even find someone to enter the race against Alan Grayson.

NY23 scorched earth politics failed - lessons for all sides.

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 13:46.

Dede would be better than Alan.

The reverse list (NY23 districts?!) enjoy

Submitted by Remains of the ... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 14:24.

Ben Smith: DNC targets 33 Republicans on health care vote

Good luck with that.

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 14:43.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/h...

If Rasmussen finds that "45% now favor the health care

Submitted by John Smith on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 14:49.

plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats", then the reality must be around 65%.

The problem is

Submitted by Tlaloc on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 15:16.

...that the GOP has portrayed this vote as the end of civilization (TM). If they are right it does them no political good because, well, civilization ends. If they are wrong and the US is still trucking right along come nov 2010 then not only do they look like tools (again) but those voters may be inclined to ask why exactly all the obstructionism was needed. And if opt-out becomes a reality then that's a whole world of hurt for the GOP.

So you are saying the GOP is between a rock and a hard place.

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 15:36.

n/t

The GOP is facing some pinches

Submitted by Tlaloc on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 15:54.

but I don't think health care is the most significant. The changing electorate demographics and severe decline in republican party ID on the other hand are going to really hurt the GOP unless they do something soon to start appealing to people besides southern white males.

2010 the GOP will probably win back some house seats but not a majority and will win maybe a net 2-3 senate seats. enough for them to feel like victors but not enough to make up for 2 wave elections in a row by dems and a continuing erosion of support. Of course that assumes we're basically where we are now. In a year any number of things may have happened to either offste the current ratchet against the GOP or to exacerbate it.

Close enough for MSNBC

Submitted by Wayne from Jere... on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 15:03.

You should

Submitted by John Smith on Mon, 11/09/2009 - 15:08.

check your meds - something is amiss.