Keep a close eye on Fairfax County

Republican Pat Herrity and Democrat Sharon Bulova are running in a special election to replace the Chairman of the Board of County Supervisors (Gerry Connolly, a Democrat who was elected to replace Tom Davis).  Fairfax county is often cited as proof the Republican wave crested in 2002 and has been in steady retreat ever since; but those of us who live in Northern Virginia realize the facts on the ground are more nuanced.  Many of the losses in NOVA over the past few cycles resulted as much from unbelievably bad campaigns as from a failure of conservative messaging. 

The county, with a population of 1,000,000 is as close to a microcosum of America as you will find at the local level.  It tends to lean somewhat right on fiscal issues, left on some social issues and has a fairly strong libertarian streak.  Social Conservatives can and have won here but they need to work hard to do so and focus more on parental control of what gets taught to children and less on intruding on the privacy of consenting adults.  Notably; Ken Cuccinelli (possibly the most conservative Republican in the state) was reelected in 2007 while Jean Marie Devolites Davis (who went up on radio to announce she was a RINO) was defeated.  Ken worked his district door to door and emphasized his fiscal as well as social conservatism.  Jean Marie preferred to distance herself from all things Republican and did everything short of changing party to drive home the point.

Pat Herrity is no RINO but he is also not a doctrainaire social conservative.  From what I have seen he will emphasize fiscal restraint and good management to focus the county budget on essential services and deliver them cost effectively.  I suspect (although I do not know) that he will also embrace a kind of libertarian social conservatism that respects traditional family values and strong parental control of influences on their children while acknowledging the rights of consenting adults to embrace alternative lifestyles and respecting their privacy.

Sharon Bulova appears to be your standard issue doctainaire liberal Democrat.  She supported expanding benifits for illegal immigrants, favors tax increases before spending cuts and has shown no opposition to PC based academics regardless of parental concerns about the messages being delivered to their children.

I believe that Herrity can not only win this blue trending county, he can do so in a way that heals some of the divisions between fiscal and social conservatives as well as delivers a Republican message the resonates with moderates.  Extreme messages of any type would be suicidal in this county.  No tax pledges, strong anti abortion or anti gay statements, government bashing etc will all backfire badly in Fairfax.  Nevertheless, Republicans can make a case for fiscal sanity that includes spending cuts before tax increases, an emphasis on private sector development with government intervention held to a minimum, and clearly articulate that traditional families and alternative lifesyles can coexixt if each will respect the others privacy and right to raise their children as they see fit.  These messages will resonate in Fairfax county.  If we can couple them with effective new media delivery mechanisms, this supervisors race could be the start of our climb back up.